2019年长江中下游伏秋连旱的异常特征分析     

高琦  徐明 《气象与环境学报》2021,37(4):93-99

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及实况观测资料,分析了2019年中国长江中下游地区伏秋连续干旱期间的降水、温度及大气环流异常特征。结果表明：此次干旱具有持续时间长、降水偏少严重、气温较历史同期明显偏高、高温日数明显偏多等极端性特点。西太平洋副热带高压偏强,位置相对偏西、偏北,是形成长江中下游伏秋连旱的最主要原因;南亚高压东伸及负涡度向东输送,利于副热带高压西伸,长江中下游地区始终位于东亚副热带西风急流出口区右侧、对流层中高层负涡度的叠加作用区,使得垂直方向上的下沉辐散得到显著增强;自乌拉尔山至贝加尔湖高压脊形成的"高压坝",偏弱的极涡和东亚大槽等异常中高纬环流形势稳定维持,使得西风带中的气旋性扰动不易影响到副热带地区,利于西太平洋副热带高压的稳定及干旱的维持;频繁的热带系统活动,使得副热带高压在热带对流加热区以北的负涡度作用下得以进一步加强,并且导致对流层低层西南气流、越赤道气流和东南气流等三支气流在向北的输送路径上发生改变,并使长江中下游地区水汽辐合偏弱,使干旱得以维持。  相似文献   

武汉市冬季大雪分析预报   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

徐双柱  王平  高琦 《气象科学》2011,31(1):67-72

使用常规气象观测资料和数值预报产品,分析了1951-2005年冬季发生在武汉市的大雪过程,结果表明:武汉市冬季出现积雪深度大于5 cm的天气事件的概率大约为每年2 d,主要发生在1月,其次是2月;大气层结条件是产生降雪的关键,地面冷空气、中低层江南西南急流和中层西风带低槽是决定武汉市冬季大雪的3个主要天气系统,中低层江...  相似文献   

武汉大气能见度与PM_2.5浓度及相对湿度关系的非线性分析及能见度预报          下载免费PDF全文

白永清  祁海霞  刘琳  陈城  林春泽  李武阶 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2016,74(2):189-199

武汉作为中部地区高湿度代表城市,大气污染严重,霾天气多发,但有关该地区大气能见度与PM_2.5浓度及相对湿度(RH)的定量关系尚不明确。利用2014年9月—2015年3月武汉地区逐时能见度、相对湿度及颗粒物质量浓度观测数据,研究分析了武汉大气能见度与PM_2.5浓度及相对湿度的关系,并进行能见度非线性预报初探,得到以下结论:武汉霾时数发生比例高,霾的发生和加重是能见度降低的主要原因;能见度降低伴随大量细粒子产生和累积,这是武汉大气能见度恶化的重要诱因。细颗粒物浓度与相对湿度共同影响和制约大气能见度变化,高湿高浓度时能见度显著下降,湿情景下(RH≥40%),能见度恶化主要是由湿度增高诱使细颗粒物粒径吸湿增长导致其散射效率增大造成的。当RH >90%时,能见度随湿度升高成线性递减,相对湿度每升高1%,武汉平均能见度降低0.568 km。而干情景下(RH<40%),能见度迅速降低的关键因素是PM_2.5质量浓度升高。在城市大气细粒子污染背景下,能见度与相对湿度成非线性关系,这主要与PM_2.5对能见度的影响及吸湿性颗粒物的散射效率变化有关。PM_2.5浓度与能见度成幂函数非线性关系,80%≤RH<90%湿度区段下相关性最强。PM_2.5浓度对能见度的影响敏感阈值是随着湿度升高而减小的,干情景下能见度10 km对应的PM_2.5浓度阈值为70 μg/m³,湿情景下该阈值为18—55 μg/m³。当PM_2.5质量浓度低于约40 μg/m³时,继续降低PM_2.5可显著提高武汉大气能见度。预报试验表明,基于神经网络方法建立大气能见度非线性预报模型是可行的,预报能见度相关系数为0.86,均方根误差为1.9 km,能见度≤10 km的TS评分为0.92。网络模型具有较高预报性能,对霾的判别有较高准确性,为衔接区域环境气象数值预报模式,建立大气能见度精细化动力统计模型提供参考依据。  相似文献   

2013年初夏湖北两次低涡暴雨对比分析_*     

舒斯  韩芳蓉 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2016,10(4):59-66

利用NCEP提供的高时空分辨率的GFS(Global Forecast System)0.5o×0.5o再分析资料和常规气象资料,对2013年初夏湖北两次低涡暴雨进行了对比分析。结果表明：（1）两次暴雨落区不同,5月暴雨由湖北西部向东北方向发展,主要位于湖北西部和中北部;而6月暴雨由湖北西南部向东发展,强降水主要位于湖北中部和东部。（2）两次暴雨落区不同是由于低涡移动的路径不同造成的,而低涡的移动路径受高低空配置的影响,不同的高低空配置导致这两次低涡暴雨的差异。（3）500hPa正的涡度平流使低涡移动发展,对低涡暴雨的发展和移动有很好的指导意义,而6月暴雨500hPa存在强正涡度平流中心,使低涡东移发展加强;另外,对流层低层温度平流对低涡的移动有引导作用。（4）边界层水汽辐合为低涡造成的强降水提供了充足的水汽条件。  相似文献   

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN THE POSITION VARIATION OF THE WEST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE DIABATIC HEATING DURING PERSISTENT INTENSE RAIN EVENTS IN YANGTZE-HUAIHE RIVERS BASIN   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

王黎娟  陈璇  管兆勇  曾明剑 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2012,18(4):528-536

By using NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data and daily precipitation data of 740 stations in China, relationships between the position variation of the West Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the diabatic heating during persistent and intense rains in the Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basin are studied. The results show that the position variation of WPSH is closely associated with the diabatic heating. There are strong apparent heating sources and moisture sinks in both the basin (to the north of WPSH) and the north of Bay of Bengal (to the west of WPSH) during persistent and intense rain events. In the basin, Q 1z begins to increase 3 days ahead of intense rainfall, maximizes 2 days later and then reduces gradually, but it changes little after precipitation ends, thus preventing the WPSH from moving northward. In the north of Bay of Bengal, 2 days ahead of strong rainfall over the basin, Q 1z starts to increase and peaks 1 day after the rain occurs, leading to the westward extension of WPSH. Afterwards, Q 1z begins declining and the WPSH makes its eastward retreat accordingly. Based on the complete vertical vorticity equation, in mid-troposphere, the vertical variation of heating in the basin is favorable to the increase of cyclonic vorticity north of WPSH, which counteracts the northward movement of WPSH and favors the persistence of rainbands over the basin. The vertical variation of heating in the north of Bay of Bengal is in favor of the increase of anti-cyclonic vorticity to the west of WPSH, which induces the westward extension of WPSH.  相似文献   

Real-Time Synchronous Integration of Radar and Raingauge Measurements Based on the Quasi Same-Rain-Volume Sampling          下载免费PDF全文

WAN Yuf  WU Cuihong  JIN Hongxiang 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2010,24(3):340-353

A technique for real-time synchronous integration of radar and raingauge measurements based on the concept of the quasi same-rain-volume sampling(QSVS)is presented.Because of the temporal and spatial discrepancies and resolution differences,the integration of radar measurements with raingauge observations has long been a difficult task.Observations indicate that there exists a correlation that conforms to the power law between hourly accumulated raingauge measurement(QG)and detected radar echo(ZOH)over the raingauge.On the basis of this,a concept of the QSVS and five direct correspondent formulas of radar and raingauge samples are built up,aiming to eliminate the temporal and spatial discrepancies.A convenient and practical sampling method-the time integral vertical synchronous sampling(TIVS)is proposed and the ZOH-QG relationship is studied.It is significant that under the fixed exponent,the coefficient AB or AM varies flexibly in accordance with the temporal and spatial variability of natural precipitation,having the function of synchronously integrating the Z-R conversion and the gauge adjustment into a single equation,and thus the precipitation estimation errors caused by detecting resolution differences between radar and raingauge can be obviously mitigated.The real-time synchronous integration technique using the ZOH-QG relationship to estimate the ground hourly rainfall accumulation is called the radar-gauge synchronous integration method(RASIM).The experiments of two cases show that the accuracy of estimated surface hourly rainfall accumulation within 230 km is about 90%,and the average relative error for the point estimation over the whole process is about 20%.Through the detailed analysis of the applicability of TIVS in three environmental fields with various wind drifts,the physical essence of TIVS is explored: it is an approximate QSVS.By analyzing the data pairs of radar and raingauge,an effective quality-control procedure is established,which can greatly improve the stability and rationarity of the ZOH-QG relationship.The forecasting product of hourly rainfall accumulation derived from the RASIM has been put into operation.It is demonstrated that the RASIM plays an important role in the quantitative monitoring and forecasting of short-term torrential rainfall.  相似文献   

我国南方洪涝暴雨期西太平洋副高短期位置变异的特点及成因   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

王黎娟  陈璇  管兆勇 《大气科学》2009,33(5):1047-1057

利用NCEP/NCAR多年逐日再分析资料、美国环境预报中心CMAP (NOAA NCEP Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation) 候平均降雨量资料以及全国740站逐日降水资料, 对华南前汛期和江淮梅雨期大范围持续性暴雨过程中西太平洋副高短期位置变异的异同及其可能成因进行了分析。结果表明: 华南和江淮大范围持续性暴雨期间, 西太平洋副高位置均比同期气候平均值异常偏南偏西, 且强度偏强。华南暴雨期间, 副高西北侧华南地区以及西侧孟加拉湾地区存在异常强烈的视热源和视水汽汇; 江淮暴雨期间, 副高北侧江淮流域及西侧孟加拉湾地区也存在异常强烈的视热源和视水汽汇。运用全型垂直涡度倾向方程理论, 研究非绝热加热对西太平洋副高短期位置变异的影响, 结果表明: 副高位置的短期变异与非绝热加热场及其配置有密切联系。华南暴雨期间, 副高西北侧边缘的华南地区加热场可在短期内迫使副高东撤南退; 江淮暴雨期间, 副高北侧江淮流域加热场的存在不利于副高北进, 而西侧较远处孟加拉湾热源会诱导副高西伸, 两者的共同作用导致副高在江淮以南维持, 且会明显西伸。  相似文献   

一次梅雨期暴雨的中尺度数值模拟分析     

徐双柱  邹立维 《湖北气象》2008,27(1):17-23

利用常规气象资料、AREM模式输出资料,对发生在2005年梅雨期湖北的一次暴雨过程进行了中尺度数值模拟分析。分析结果表明,强降水发生时,在对应的中尺度对流系统中存在两个分别位于300hPa和600hPa附近的强上升运动中心,低层辐合、高层辐散的单模态分布是上升运动得以维持的重要条件;环境风场并不能控制中尺度对流系统的移动方向,中尺度对流系统向低层涡度增加的地方移动;强降水形成可概括为低层切变线东移诱发地面低压发展、引起垂直上升运动迅速增加、触发低层水汽的垂直输送和高不稳定能量强烈释放等过程。  相似文献   

一次局地强降水过程的中尺度特征及预报难点分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

祁东平  周建志  王珊珊  范元月  李芳 《湖北气象》2008,27(1):42-48

利用常规气象资料和客观物理量场、卫星云图、多普勒雷达回波产品资料,对2007年8月30日发生在宜昌市北部的强降水天气过程的中尺度特征和预报难点进行了分析。结果表明：（1）地面中尺度辐合线、中尺度对流云团是造成此次强降水的重要中尺度系统;（2）强降水主要南-中尺度“人”字型雷达回波带稳定少动造成,回波带中有强对流单体不断新生、合并使强降水得以维持;（3）回波带上出现的逆风区与强降水落区有较好的对应关系,风切变区面积扩大和切变值增大是强对流回波单体不断发展并在一地维持的主要原因;（4）中低层偏南风到高层偏北风的转变所形成的垂直风切变为强降水的发生提供了动力条件,同时中低层暖湿平流加强为强对流云团的稳定维持提供了充足的水汽;（5）强对流单体,强回波短带,速度资料上的“逆风区”和风切变区等,可作为判断强降水落区的依据。  相似文献   

Numerical Research on Effects Upon Precipitation Forecast of Doppler-Radar Estimated Precipitation and Retrieved Wind Field Under Different Model Initial Schemes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

WANG Yehong  ZHAO Yuchun  CUI Chunguang 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2007,21(1):98-113

On the basis of the joint estimated 1-h precipitation from Changde, Jingzhou, and Yichang Doppler radars as well as Wuhan digital radar, and the retrieved wind fields from Yichang and Jingzhou Doppler radars, a series of numerical experiments with an advanced regionalη-coordinate model (AREM) under different model initial schemes, i.e., Grapes-3DVAR, Barnes objective analysis, and Barnes-3DVAR, are carried out for a torrential rain process occurring along the Yangtze River in the 24-h period from 2000 BT 22 July 2002 to investigate the effects of the Doppler-radar estimated rainfall and retrieved winds on the rainfall forecast. The main results are as follows: (1) The simulations are obviously different under three initial schemes with the same data source (the radiosounding and T213L31 analysis). On the whole, Barnes-3DVAR, which combines the advantages of the Barnes objective analysis and the Grapes-3DVAR method, gives the best simulations: well-simulated rain band and clear mesoscale structures, as well as their location and intensity close to observations. (2) Both Barnes-3DVAR and Grapes-3DVAR schemes are able to assimilate the Doppler-radar estimated rainfall and retrieved winds, but differences in simulation results are very large, with Barnes-3DVAR's simulation much better than Grapes-3DVAR's. (3) Under Grapes-3DVAR scheme, the simulation of 24-h rainfall is improved obviously when assimilating the Doppler-radar estimated precipitation into the model in compared with the control experiment; but it becomes a little worse when assimilating the Doppler-radar retrieved winds into the model, and it becomes worse obviously when assimilating the Doppler-radar estimated precipitation as well as retrieved winds into the model. However, the simulation is different under Barnes-3DVAR scheme. The simulation is improved to a certain degree no matter assimilating the estimated precipitation or retrieved winds, or both of them. The result is the best when assimilating both of them into the model. And (4) Barnes-3DVAR is a new and efficient initial scheme for assimilating the radar estimated rainfall and retrieved winds.  相似文献