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481.
Erta Ale volcano, Ethiopia, erupted in November 2010, emplacing new lava flows on the main crater floor, the first such eruption from the southern pit into the main crater since 1973, and the first eruption at this remote volcano in the modern satellite age. For many decades, Erta Ale has contained a persistently active lava lake which is ordinarily confined, several tens of metres below the level of the main crater, within the southern pit. We combine on-the-ground field observations with multispectral imaging from the SEVIRI satellite to reconstruct the entire eruptive episode beginning on 11 November and ending prior to 14 December 2010. A period of quiescence occurred between 14 and 19 November. The main eruptive activity developed between 19 and 22 November, finally subsiding to pre-eruptive levels between 8 and 15 December. The estimated total volume of lava erupted is ??0.006?km3. The mineralogy of the 2010 lava is plagioclase?+?clinopyroxene?+?olivine. Geochemically, the lava is slightly more mafic than previously erupted lava lining the caldera floor, but lies within the range of historical lavas from Erta Ale. SIMS analysis of olivine-hosted melt inclusions shows the Erta Ale lavas to be relatively volatile-poor, with H2O contents ??1,300?ppm and CO2 contents of ??200?ppm. Incompatible trace and volatile element systematics of melt inclusions show, however, that the November 2010 lavas were volatile-saturated, and that degassing and crystallisation occurred concomitantly. Volatile saturation pressures are in the range 7?C42?MPa, indicating shallow crystallisation. Calculated pre-eruption and melt inclusion entrapment temperatures from mineral/liquid thermometers are ??1,150?°C, consistent with previously published field measurements.  相似文献   
482.
At 3000 m depth the downward flux of particulate matter shows substantial seasonal and interannual variation. Complete annual records for eight of the past 14 years have been examined in the light of mixing depths derived from the OCCAM general circulation model and euphotic zone chlorophyll concentration and productivity, which were derived from the SeaWiFS satellite colour sensor. The annual flux was particularly high in 2001 due to a late summer deposition exceeding previous records several fold and this year was also characterised by very early shoaling of the mixing depth in spring and a very high surface spring chlorophyll concentration. Other years that were somewhat unusual in having either high or low flux at depth were not in general associated with unusual patterns of mixing or productivity. The percentage of the annual organic carbon primary production which reaches 3000 m varies from 0.6 to 1.2% except in 2001 when it reached 3.4%. A mechanistic relationship between upper-ocean processes and deep-ocean particle flux remains elusive and various explanations are suggested for this which need now to be addressed. In the spring, the timing of first shoaling of mixing, enhancement of productivity and increased particle flux at depth have all advanced during the 14 years of study by about 2 days per year, suggesting a similar trend as has been observed for surface phytoplankton, mesozooplankton, fish and seabirds probably caused by wide-scale environmental changes.  相似文献   
483.
484.
Extreme value theory is commonly used in offshore engineering to estimate extreme significant wave height. To justify the use of extreme value models it is of critical importance either to verify that the assumptions made by the models are satisfied by the data or to examine the effect violating model assumptions. An important assumption made in the derivation of extreme value models is that the data come from a stationary distribution. The distribution of significant wave height varies with both the direction of origin of a storm and the season it occurs in, violating the assumption of a stationary distribution. Extreme value models can be applied to analyse the data in discrete seasons or directional sectors over which the distribution can be considered approximately stationary. Previous studies have suggested that models which ignore seasonality or directionality are less accurate and will underestimate extremes. This study shows that in fact the opposite is true. Using realistic case studies, it is shown that estimates of extremes from non-seasonal models have a lower bias and variance than estimates from discrete seasonal models and that estimates from discrete seasonal models tend to be biased high. The results are also applicable to discrete directional models.  相似文献   
485.
Ash produced by a volcanic eruption on Iceland can be hazardous for both the transatlantic flight paths and European airports and airspace. In order to begin to quantify the risk to aircraft, this study explored the probability of ash from a short explosive eruption of Hekla Volcano (63.98°N, 19.7°W) reaching European airspace. Transport, dispersion and deposition of the ash cloud from a three hour ‘explosive’ eruption with an initial plume height of 12 km was simulated using the Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment, NAME, the model used operationally by the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre. Eruptions were simulated over a six year period, from 2003 until 2008, and ash clouds were tracked for four days following each eruption.Results showed that a rapid spread of volcanic ash is possible, with all countries in Europe facing the possibility of an airborne ash concentration exceeding International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) limits within 24 h of an eruption. An additional high impact, low probability event which could occur is the southward spread of the ash cloud which would block transatlantic flights approaching and leaving Europe. Probabilities of significant concentrations of ash are highest to the east of Iceland, with probabilities exceeding 20% in most countries north of 50°N. Deposition probabilities were highest at Scottish and Scandinavian airports. There is some seasonal variability in the probabilities; ash is more likely to reach southern Europe in winter when the mean winds across the continent are northerly. Ash concentrations usually remain higher for longer during summer when the mean wind speeds are lower.  相似文献   
486.
Sand transport in Lido and Chioggia inlets was measured using modified Helley–Smith sand traps equipped with 60-micron nets. The traps had an efficiency of about 4% only but provided enough material for analysis. Very fine sand (0.07 < d < 0.11 mm) only was collected in the traps. Transport of sand was greatest in the bottom 10% of the water column and followed a Rouse profile. Sand extended to a height of about 4 m above the bed during peak flows corresponding to the estimated thickness of the boundary layer; and observed in synoptic ADCP profiles. The sand in the benthic boundary layer was largely inorganic (>95%); above this layer, organic content varied widely and was greatest near the surface. The movability number Ws/UWs/U showed a linear relationship to dimensionless grain diameter (D*): (Ws/U)=(D/10)(Ws/U)=(D/10); D* < 10. Sand concentration in suspension was simulated by a mean Rouse parameter of −2.01 ± 0.66 (Lido inlet) and −0.82 ± 0.27 (Chioggia inlet). The β parameter ( Hill et al., 1988) was correlated with D* and movability number in the form: β=2.07−2.03D+59(Ws/U)2β=2.072.03D+59(Ws/U)2 (r2 = 0.42). Von Karman's constant was back-calculated from a Law of the Wall relationship as a test on the accuracy of U* estimates; a mean value of 0.37 ± 0.1 (compared to the accepted value of 0.41) suggest U* was accurate to within 10%. The constant of proportionality (γ = 3.54 × 10−4) between reference concentration (Ca) and normalized excess bed shear stress was in line with the published literature.  相似文献   
487.
We previously reported evidence of increased levels of DNA damage in the hydrothermal mussel Bathymodiolus azoricus, which suggested that the species was not fully resistant to the natural toxicity of its deep-sea vent environment. In the present study, HSP70 was used as a biomarker of sub-cellular stress. Differences in HSP70 expression pattern were observed between vent sites, typified by different depths/toxicity profiles, and between different mussel tissue types. A comparison of specimens collected by remote operated vehicle (ROV) and acoustically-operated cages showed that less stress (as indicated by changes in HSP70 levels) was induced by the faster cage recovery method. Therefore alternatives to ROV collection should be considered when planning experiments involving live deep sea organisms. Significantly, a positive correlation was found between the levels of DNA strand breakage, as measured using the Comet assay, and HSP70 expression pattern; evidence was also obtained for the constitutive expression of at least one HSP isoform which was located within the cell nucleus.  相似文献   
488.
The transmission of wave energy passing an offshore wind farm is studied. Three effects that can change the wave field are analysed, which is the A) energy dissipation due to drag resistance, B) wave reflection/diffraction from structures, and C) the effect of a modified wind field inside and on the lee side of the wind farm. The drag dissipation, A), is quantified by a quadratic resistance law. The effect of B) is parameterised based on 1st order potential theory. A method to find the amount of reflected and transmitted wave energy is developed based on the panel method WAMIT™ and a radiation condition at infinity. From airborne and Satellite SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) a model has been derived for the change of the water surface friction C) inside and on the lee side of the offshore wind farm. The effects have been implemented in a spectral wind wave model, MIKE21 SW, and a parametric study to compare the 3 different processes has been carried out. The method to study reflection/diffraction can be used for any type of offshore structure, vessel or a number of structures, as long as the assumptions for the use of potential wave theory are valid, and the effect of the modified wind field on the water surface friction is known.  相似文献   
489.
Between 1996 and the mid-2000s the upper waters (200–700 m) of the Rockall Trough became warmer (+0.72 °C), saltier (+0.088) and reduced in nitrate and phosphate (−2.00 µM and −0.14 µM respectively). These changes, out-with calculated errors, can be explained by the varying influence of southern versus subpolar water masses in the basin as the Subpolar Gyre weakened and contracted. Upper water properties strongly correlate with a measure of the strength of the Subpolar Gyre (the first principal component of sea surface height over the Subpolar North Atlantic) prior to the mid-2000s. As the gyre weakens, the upper layers of the trough become warmer (r−0.85), more saline (r−0.86) and reduced in nitrate and phosphate (r+0.81 and r+0.87 respectively). Further the proportion of subpolar waters in the basin decreases from around 50% to less than 20% (r+0. 88). Since the mid−2000s the Subpolar Gyre has been particularly weak. During this period temperatures decreased slightly (−0.21 °C), salinities remained near constant (35.410±0.005) and phosphate levels low and stable (0.68±0.02 µM). These relative lack of changes are thought to be related to the maximum proportion of southern water masses within the Rockall Trough having been reached. Thus the upper water properties are no longer controlled by changes in the relative importance of different water masses in the basin (as prior to the mid-2000s), but rather a different process. We suggest that when the gyre is particularly weak the interannual changes in upper water properties in the Rockall Trough reflect changes in the source properties of the southern water masses. Since the early-2000s the Subpolar Gyre has been weaker than observed since 1992, or modelled since 1960–1970. Hence upper waters within the Rockall Trough may be warmer, saltier and more depleted in nitrate and phosphate than at any time in the last half century.  相似文献   
490.
We consider how a highly idealized double-hemisphere basin responds to a zonally constant restoring surface temperature profile that oscillates in time, with periods ranging from 0.5 to 32,000 years. In both hemispheres, the forcing is similar but can be either in phase or out of phase. The set-up is such that the Northern Hemisphere always produces the densest waters. The model’s meridional overturning circulation (MOC) exhibits a strong response in both hemispheres on decadal to multi-millennial timescales. The amplitude of the oscillations reaches up to 140% of the steady-state maximum MOC and exhibits resonance-like behaviour, with a maximum at centennial to millennial forcing periods. When the forcing is in phase between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, there is a marked decrease in the amplitude of the MOC response as the forcing period is increased beyond the resonance period. In this case the resonance-like behaviour is identical to the one we found earlier in a single-hemisphere model and occurs for the same reasons. When the forcing is out of phase between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, the amplitude of the MOC response is substantially greater for long forcing periods (millennial and longer), particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. This increased MOC amplitude occurs because for an out of phase forcing, either the northern or the southern deep water source is always active, leading to generally colder bottom waters and thus greater stratification in the opposite hemisphere. This increased stratification in turn stabilises the water column and thus reduces the strength of the weaker overturning cell. The interaction of the two hemispheres leads to response timescales of the deep ocean at half the forcing period. Our results suggest a possible explanation for the half-precessional time scale observed in the deep Atlantic Ocean palaeo-temperature record.  相似文献   
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