中国夏季和冬季极端干旱年代际变化及成因分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

刘珂  姜大膀 《大气科学》2014,38(2):309-321

依据1961～2009年中国区域540个气象站的夏、冬季气温和降水数据,首先采用气候变化趋势转折判别模型（简称PLFIM）分析了中国区域8个分区夏、冬季气温和降水的年代际变化,而后利用PDSI干旱指数研究了夏、冬季极端干旱在年代际尺度上的时空变化特征及其成因。结果表明:1961～2009年中国夏季极端干旱发生率北方大于南方,冬季则为在东部多而在西部少。夏季和冬季极端干旱发生概率在最后一次年代际转折后都呈增加趋势。在区域尺度上,夏季东北、华北和西北地区增加明显,冬季东北、华北、华南、西南地区增加显著。其中,降水在20世纪90年代以前的极端干旱变化中起主导作用,而后由于气候变暖所引起的极端干旱增加趋势逐渐增大,与降水变化的作用相互叠加。  相似文献   

准全球陆表干旱严重程度的多传感器遥感监测方法研究     

陈洪萍  贾根锁  冯锦明  董燕生  张安治 《大气科学》2014,38(5):939-949

在全球气候变暖的背景下,持续的干旱事件将对生态系统和人类社会产生不利影响。尽管存在多源卫星遥感资料及多种干旱指数,然而区域和全球尺度干旱事件的监测仍具有挑战。采用TRMM（Tropical RainfallMeasuring Mission）数据量化降水异常、MODIS（Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer）归一化植被指数（Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI）和陆表温度（Land Surface Temperature,LST）数据表征植被生长异常,构建了一种兼顾降水异常和植被生长状况异常的多传感器陆表干旱严重程度指数（Multi-sensorsDrought Severity Index,MDSI）。结果表明:MDSI 能够准确检测准全球范围（50°S～50°N,0°～180°～0°）的气象干旱事件,如亚马逊流域2005 和2010 年干旱、中国川渝地区2006 年干旱、中国云南2010 年干旱、非洲东部2011 年干旱、2012 年美国中部干旱等;MDSI 与PDSI（Palmer Drought Severity Index）呈现出大致相同的干湿空间格局,并且MDSI 有助于湿润地区干旱程度的检测。  相似文献   

中国南海极端风暴海况下固定式平台结构可靠性分析     

李萍  李林斌 《海洋工程》2014,32(3):14-21

基于中国南海海域风暴环境条件,研究分析南海海域固定式导管架平台结构整体性和可靠性,以及新建固定式平台结构设计准则。采用海洋环境数据后报方法,得到南海海域1972~2011共40年的风、浪、流联合数据,从中抽取风暴环境条件;利用通用荷载模型,将40年间的风暴环境数据转变成结构的荷载数据,即基底剪力或倾覆力矩;并计算得到风暴环境荷载的短期及长期分布,以及任意风暴下荷载的概率分布;根据结构可靠性模型,结合荷载的长期分布,研究基于结构暴露等级及失效概率的固定式平台结构强度储备比。根据计算,得到了不同暴露等级下中国南海平台的强度储备比,并与墨西哥湾及北海海域进行了比较,为新建平台提供设计参考。  相似文献   

亚心形四爿藻生长与温度、盐度关系的构建     

刘加慧  杨洪帅  王辉 《广东海洋大学学报》2014,(1):60-65

采用面心立方设计(CCF)研究了温度(16~32℃)和盐度(15~55)对亚心形四爿藻生长的联合效应。结果表明,温度与盐度的一次、二次效应及互作效应对亚心形四爿藻比生长速率影响都极显著(P<0.01),温度对亚心形四爿藻比生长速率的影响大于盐度。响应曲面法分析结果表明,当温度和盐度同时升高时,亚心形四爿藻比生长速率呈先上升后下降的趋势。构建亚心形四爿藻比生长速率与温度、盐度间的模型方程,模型的决定系数为0.987 3,拟合度极高;预测决定系数为0.882 4,表明可用于预测亚心形四爿藻比生长速率的变化。通过模型优化及验证实验,在温度、盐度组合为26℃/33时,亚心形四爿藻比生长速率达到最大值。  相似文献   

Modeling of spatial distributions of farmland density and its temporal change using geographically weighted regression model   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Haitao Zhang  Long Guo  Jiaying Chen  Peihong Fu  Jianli Gu  Guangyu Liao 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2014,24(2):191-204

This study used spatial autoregression（SAR） model and geographically weighted regression（GWR） model to model the spatial patterns of farmland density and its temporal change in Gucheng County,Hubei Province,China in 1999 and 2009,and discussed the difference between global and local spatial autocorrelations in terms of spatial heterogeneity and non-stationarity. Results showed that strong spatial positive correlations existed in the spatial distributions of farmland density,its temporal change and the driving factors,and the coefficients of spatial autocorrelations decreased as the spatial lag distance increased. SAR models revealed the global spatial relations between dependent and independent variables,while the GWR model showed the spatially varying fitting degree and local weighting coefficients of driving factors and farmland indices（i.e.,farmland density and temporal change）. The GWR model has smooth process when constructing the farmland spatial model. The coefficients of GWR model can show the accurate influence degrees of different driving factors on the farmland at different geographical locations. The performance indices of GWR model showed that GWR model produced more accurate simulation results than other models at different times,and the improvement precision of GWR model was obvious. The global and local farmland models used in this study showed different characteristics in the spatial distributions of farmland indices at different scales,which may provide the theoretical basis for farmland protection from the influence of different driving factors.  相似文献   

Valuation of lake and marsh wetlands ecosystem services in China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yiran Zhang  Demin Zhou  Zhenguo Niu  Fengjiao Xu 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2014,24(3):269-278

Wetlands are highly productive natural ecosystems, providing valuable goods and services. There is growing interest in transferring ecosystem service value from the existing wetlands studied to other wetlands ecosystems at a large geographic scale. The benefit transfer method uses the known values from wetlands to predict the value of other wetland sites. This methodology requires only limited time and resources. The present study calculated the value of the ecological services provided by lake and marsh wetlands in China in terms of biodiversity indices, water quality indices and economic indices. Basic data on wetlands were obtained through remote sensing images. The results show that: 1) The total ecosystem service value of the lake and marsh wetlands in 2008 was calculated to be 8.1841 × 1010 United States Dollars(USD), with the marsh and lake wetlands contributing 5.6329 × 1010 and 2.5512 × 1010 USD, respectively. Values of marsh ecosystem service were concentrated in Heilongjiang Province(2.5516 × 1010 USD), Qinghai Province(1.2014 × 1010 USD), and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region(1.1884 × 1010 USD). The value of the lakes were concentrated in Tibet Autonomous Region(6.223 × 109 USD), Heilongjiang(5.810 × 109 USD), and Qinghai(5.500 × 109 USD). 2) Waste treatment and climate regulation services contributed to 26.29% and 24.74% respectively, of the total ecosystem service value of the marsh wetlands. Hydrological regulation and waste treatment contributed to 41.39% and 32.75%, respectively, of the total ecosystem service value of the lake wetlands. 3) The total ecological service value of the lake and marsh wetlands was 54.64% of the total service value of natural grassland ecosystems and 30.34% of the total service value of forests ecosystems in China.  相似文献   

Seasonal Variations in Phytoplankton Community Structure in the Sanggou,Ailian, and Lidao Bays     

YUAN Mingli  ;ZHANG Cuixia  ;JIANG Zengjie  ;GUO Shujin  ;SUN Jun 《青岛海洋大学学报(英文版)》2014,(6):1012-1024

The seasonal variations in phytoplankton community structure were investigated for the Sanggou Bay （SGB） and the adjacent Ailian Bay （ALB） and Lidao Bay （LDB） in Shandong Peninsula,eastern China.The species composition and cell abundance of phytoplankton in the bay waters in spring （April 2011）,summer （August 2011）,autumn （October 2011）,and winter （January 2012） were examined using the Uterm6hl method.A total of 80 taxa of phytoplankton that belong to 39 genera of 3 phyla were identified.These included 64 species of 30 genera in the Phylum Bacillariophyta,13 species of 8 genera in the Phylum Dinophyta,and 3 species of 1 genus in the Phylum Chrysophyta.During the four seasons,the number of phytoplankton species （43） was the highest in spring,followed by summer and autumn （40）,and the lowest number ofphytoplankton species （35） was found in winter.Diatoms,especially Paralia sulcata （Ehrenberg） Cleve and Coscinodiscus oculus-iridis Ehrenberg,were predominant in the phytoplankton community throughout the study period,whereas the dominance of dinoflagellate appeared in summer only.The maximum cell abundance of phytoplankton was detected in summer （average 8.08 × 103 cells L-1） whereas their minimum abundance was found in autumn （average 2.60 x 103 cellsL-1）.The phytoplankton abundance was generally higher in the outer bay than in the inner bay in spring and autumn.In summer,the phytoplankton cells were mainly concentrated in the south of inner SGB,with peak abundance observed along the western coast.In winter,the distribution of phytoplankton cells showed 3 patches,with peak abundance along the western coast as well.On seasonal average,the Shannon-Wiener diversity indices of phytoplankton community ranged from 1.17 to 1.78 （autumn 〉 summer 〉 spring 〉 winter）,and the Pielou＇s evenness indices of phytoplankton ranged from 0.45 to 0.65 （autumn 〉 spring 〉 summer〉 winter）.According to the results of canonical correspondence analysis,phosphate level w  相似文献   

遭遇“寒流” 期待“回暖”——全球地质勘查形势分析与展望     

高兵  黄贤营 《河南国土资源》2014,(2)

正2013年全球地质勘查形势急转直下,勘查投入预算大幅下滑,规模以上勘查公司减少两成以上,全年钻探进尺下降1/3。投资结构发生较大改变,北美地区勘查投入降幅最高,大型公司投资比例开始提升,拉丁美洲成为勘查首选地区,金矿勘查投资居各矿种首位,矿山勘查更受青睐。预计2014年全球勘查活动继续走低,有望在2015年底逐渐回暖。勘查投资预算大幅下滑勘查公司数量同比降低2009年,随着金属价格的上涨,全球勘查形势回暖速度超过预期,勘查投入大幅增加,2010与2011年分别同比增长44%与50%。受美国和欧  相似文献   

Assimilating the LAI Data to the VEGAS Model Using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter: An Observing System Simulation Experiment          下载免费PDF全文

JIA Bing-Hao  Ning ZENG  XIE Zheng-Hui 《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,(4):314-319

Information on the spatial and temporal pat- terns of surface carbon flux is crucial to understanding of source/sink mechanisms and projection of future atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate. This study presents the construction and implementation of a terrestrial carbon cycle data assimilation system based on a dynamic vegetation and terrestrial carbon model Vegetation-Global-Atmosphere-Soil （VEGAS） with an advanced assimilation algorithm, the local ensemble transform Kalman filter （LETKF, hereafter LETKF-VEGAS）. An observing system simulation experiment （OSSE） framework was designed to evaluate the reliability of this system, and numerical experiments conducted by the OSSE using leaf area index （LAI） observations suggest that the LETKF -VEGAS can improve the estimations of leaf carbon pool and LAI significantly, with reduced root mean square errors and increased correlation coefficients with true values, as compared to a control run without assimilation. Furthermore, the LETKF-VEGAS has the potential to provide more accurate estimations of the net primary productivity （NPP） and carbon flux to atmosphere （CFta）.  相似文献   

资料均一化对沈阳站气温趋势和城市化偏差分析的影响   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

李娇  任国玉  任玉玉  张雷 《大气科学学报》2014,37(3):297-303

利用国家气象信息中心2013年发布的逐日均一化气温资料,对沈阳站资料均一化处理前后平均气温和极端气温指数序列的线性趋势及其城市化影响偏差进行了比较评价。结果表明:1)资料均一化处理对日最高气温及其衍生的极端气温指数序列趋势估计的影响较弱,但对日最低气温及其衍生的极端气温指数序列趋势估计具有显著影响。2)经资料均一化处理后,平均气温序列中的城市化影响偏差有所增大,平均最低气温序列中的城市化影响偏差增大尤其明显;与冷事件有关的极端气温指数序列的城市化影响偏差数值有所减小,与暖事件有关的极端气温指数序列的城市化影响偏差数值有所增加。3)资料均一化处理有效纠正了因迁站等原因造成的地面气温观测记录中的非均一性,但却在很大程度上还原了城市站地面气温观测记录中的城市化影响偏差。  相似文献