Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts of Stratospheric Sudden Warming by BCC_CSM1.1(m):A Comparison with ECMWF     

Jian RAO  Rongcai REN  Haishan CHEN  Xiangwen LIU  Yueyue YU  Yang YANG 《大气科学进展》2019,36(5):479-494

This study focuses on model predictive skill with respect to stratospheric sudden warming(SSW) events by comparing the hindcast results of BCC_CSM1.1(m) with those of the ECMWF's model under the sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project of the World Weather Research Program and World Climate Research Program. When the hindcasts are initiated less than two weeks before SSW onset, BCC_CSM and ECMWF show comparable predictive skill in terms of the temporal evolution of the stratospheric circumpolar westerlies and polar temperature up to 30 days after SSW onset. However, with earlier hindcast initialization, the predictive skill of BCC_CSM gradually decreases, and the reproduced maximum circulation anomalies in the hindcasts initiated four weeks before SSW onset replicate only 10% of the circulation anomaly intensities in observations. The earliest successful prediction of the breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex accompanying SSW onset for BCC_CSM(ECMWF) is the hindcast initiated two(three) weeks earlier. The predictive skills of both models during SSW winters are always higher than that during non-SSW winters, in relation to the successfully captured tropospheric precursors and the associated upward propagation of planetary waves by the model initializations. To narrow the gap in SSW predictive skill between BCC_CSM and ECMWF, ensemble forecasts and error corrections are performed with BCC_CSM. The SSW predictive skill in the ensemble hindcasts and the error corrections are improved compared with the previous control forecasts.  相似文献   

CINRAD-SA双偏振雷达资料在降水估测中的应用初探   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

陈超  胡志群  胡胜  张扬  李珊珊 《气象》2019,45(1):113-125

对基于水平反射率ZH和差分传播相移率K_(DP)的降水估测综合法R(C)进行了改进,并对广州S波段双偏振雷达2016年2次飑线和2次台风降水过程的Φ_(DP)使用小波分析进行滤波处理,在此基础上使用变距最小二乘法拟合得到K_(DP)的值。分别使用R(C)和R(Z_H)法对2次飑线和2次台风降水过程进行降水估算,将估算结果和雨量计小时雨量进行了对比,并将两种方法的评估结果进行了对比。结果表明:(1)对于飑线类型降水,R(C)法对5 mm·h~(-1)以上的降水估测精度要好于R(Z_H)法,且降水率越大,R(C)法优势越明显,当降水率≥20 mm·h~(-1)时,两次过程R(C)法比R(Z_H)法的平均相对误差(RE)降低了17. 2%,平均绝对误差(AE)减少了1.89 mm,平均均方根误差(RMSE)减少了1.66 mm;(2)对于台风类型降水,R(C)法对5 mm·h~(-1)以上的降水估测精度也好于R(Z_H)法,当降水率≥20 mm·h~(-1)时,两次过程R(C)法比R(Z_H)法的平均RE降低了33. 19%,平均AE减少了3. 95 mm,平均RMSE减少了4.05 mm;(3)对于飑线和台风两种类型降水R(C)法都明显改善了降水率较大时的R(Z_H)法低估问题,但R(C)法在降水率10 mm·h~(-1)时也存在低估,可能是由雨滴谱资料观测误差导致拟合的系数偏小或雷达硬件造成的观测偏差等造成的。  相似文献   

两种体色三疣梭子蟹线粒体DNA 部分片段序列的比较分析     

迟大利  高焕  沈颂东  阎斌伦 《海洋科学》2010,34(11):27-34

三疣梭子蟹(Portunus trituberculatus)作为重要的海洋经济动物,其常见体色(头胸甲)为茶绿色。近年来在我国沿海海域海捕三疣梭子蟹中开始出现体色为紫色的一类梭子蟹,除体色不同外,二者表型特征并无显著差异。对两种体色三疣梭子蟹不同个体的线粒体COI和16S rRNA基因进行了序列比对分析以判定二者之间的亲缘关系。结果发现COI和16S rRNA基因在两种体色三疣梭子蟹群体中的核苷酸序列一致性分别为99.87%和99.88%,表明紫色三疣梭子蟹并未发生亚种的分化,即紫色和茶绿色群体属于同一个种。并利用GenBank数据库检索了梭子蟹科其他15种海产蟹的16S rRNA序列,进行了序列同源性比对分析和分子系统学方面的探讨,为梭子蟹种属分类学研究提供分子依据。  相似文献   

Geophysical surveys of the sediments of Loch Ness,Scotland: implications for the deglaciation of the Moray Firth Ice Stream,British–Irish Ice Sheet     

Andrew J. Turner  John Woodward  Stuart A. Dunning  Adrian J. Shine  Chris R. Stokes  Colm Ó Cofaigh 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(2):221-232

We present results from three geophysical campaigns using high‐resolution sub‐bottom profiling to image sediments deposited in Loch Ness, Scotland. Sonar profiles show distinct packages of sediment, providing insight into the loch's deglacial history. A recessional moraine complex in the north of the loch indicates initial punctuated retreat. Subsequent retreat was rapid before stabilisation at Foyers Rise formed a large stillstand moraine. Here, the calving margin produced significant volumes of laminated sediments in a proglacial fjord‐like environment. Subsequent to this, ice retreated rapidly to the southern end of the loch, where it again deposited a sequence of proglacial laminated sediments. Sediment sequences were then disturbed by the deposition of a thick gravel layer and a large turbidite deposit as a result of a jökulhlaup from the Spean/Roy ice‐dammed lake. These sediments are overlain by a Holocene sheet drape. Data indicate: (i) a former tributary of the Moray Firth Ice Stream migrated back into Loch Ness as a major outlet glacier with a calving margin in a fjord‐like setting; (ii) there was significant sediment supply to the terminus of this outlet glacier in Loch Ness; and (iii) that jökulhlaups are important for sediment supply into proglacial fjord/lake environments and may compose >20% of proglacial sedimentary sequences. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Response of detrital zircon and monazite,and their U–Pb isotopic systems,to regional metamorphism and host‐rock partial melting,Cooma Complex,southeastern Australia     

I. S. Williams 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(4):557-580

Progressive Early Silurian low‐pressure greenschist to granulite facies regional metamorphism of Ordovician flysch at Cooma, southeastern Australia, had different effects on detrital zircon and monazite and their U–Pb isotopic systems. Monazite began to dissolve at lower amphibolite facies, virtually disappearing by upper amphibolite facies, above which it began to regrow, becoming most coarsely grained in migmatite leucosome and the anatectic Cooma Granodiorite. Detrital monazite U–Pb ages survived through mid‐amphibolite facies, but not to higher grade. Monazite in the migmatite and granodiorite records only metamorphism and granite genesis at 432.8 ± 3.5 Ma. Detrital zircon was unaffected by metamorphism until the inception of partial melting, when platelets of new zircon precipitated in preferred orientations on the surface of the grains. These amalgamated to wholly enclose the grains in new growth, characterised by the development of {211} crystal faces, in the migmatite and granodiorite. New growth, although maximum in the leucosome, was best dated in the granodiorite at 435.2 ± 6.3 Ma. The combined best estimate for the age of metamorphism and granite genesis is 433.4 ± 3.1 Ma. Detrital zircon U–Pb ages were preserved unmodified throughout metamorphism and magma genesis and indicate derivation of the Cooma Granodiorite from Lower Palaeozoic source rocks with the same protolith as the Ordovician sediments, not Precambrian basement. Cooling of the metamorphic complex was relatively slow (average ～12°C/10⁶y from ～730 to ～170°C), more consistent with the unroofing of a regional thermal high than cooling of an igneous intrusion. The ages of detrital zircon and monazite from the Ordovician flysch (dominantly composite populations 600–500 Ma and 1.2–0.9 Ga old) indicate its derivation from a source remote from the Australian craton.  相似文献   

Primary cracking of kerogens. Experimenting and modelling C₁, C₂–C₅, C₆–C₁₅ and C₁₅₊ classes of hydrocarbons formed     

J. Espitali  P. Ungerer  I. Irwin  F. Marquis 《Organic Geochemistry》1988,13(4-6)

Mathematical models of hydrocarbon formation can be used to simulate the natural evolution of different types of organic matter and to make an overall calculation of the amounts of oil and/or gas produced during this evolution. However, such models do not provide any information on the composition of the hydrocarbons formed or on how they evolve during catagenesis.From the kinetic standpoint, the composition of the hydrocarbons formed can be considered to result from the effect of “primary cracking” reactions having a direct effect on kerogen during its evolution as well as from the effect of “secondary cracking” acting on the hydrocarbons formed.This report gives experimental results concerning the “primary cracking” of Types II and III kerogens and their modelling. For this, the hydrocarbons produced have been grouped into four classes (C₁, C₂–C₅, C₆–C₁₅ and C₁₅₊). Experimental data corresponding to these different classes were obtained by the pyrolysis of kerogens with temperature programming of 4°C/min with continuous analysis, during heating, of the amount of hydrocarbons corresponding to each of these classes.The kinetic parameters of the model were optimized on the basis of the results obtained. This model represents the first step in the creation of a more sophisticated mathematical model to be capable of simulating the formation of different hydrocarbon classes during the thermal history of sediments. The second step being the adjustment of the kinetic parameters of “secondary cracking”.  相似文献   

南美地台中生代活化的火成岩记录(英文)     

F.F.M.阿尔梅达  C. 《大地构造与成矿学》1989,13(4):308-325

在冈瓦纳大陆裂解的同时及其后,出现了岩浆作用过程,它影响到远离安第斯山链的南美地台的大部分。这个岩浆作用过程构成了几种类型的记录:(1)拉斑玄武质侵入岩和喷出岩,如沉积盆地中的熔岩流、岩床、岩墙和基底中的岩墙。最大活动强度出现于中侏罗世至前阿普第阶早白垩世。在大陆的北部,出现局部的二叠—三叠纪拉斑玄武质岩墙。(2)碱性和过碱性镁铁质至长英质岩浆活动和共生的碳酸盐岩,它们出现于巴西Serra do Mar、巴拉那盆地周边以及在亚马孙地盾周边和玻利维亚,呈孤立的小面积出现,时代上大部分属后阿尔必阶。由于此期岩浆作用发生于南美和非洲移开之时,所以一直延续至中新世。少量的侵入岩是与侏罗纪—始自垩纪火山活动同时的。(3)在前寒武纪末期结束造山作用的地区以及在时代为中元古代的巴西克拉通区,已找到了几个金伯利岩体,少量的同位素资料指出其年龄属中生代。 地质构造影响了中新生代岩浆活动。玄武质熔岩流和岩床在克拉通内盆地中下沉较大的内部更常见,厚度也较大。许多前寒武纪断裂受到辉绿岩墙的影响,这些岩墙可以构成岩墙群。其它岩墙明显与古老断裂无关,但是它们位于大陆分离过程中遭受张应力的地区。巴拉那盆地周边的碱性岩浆作用通常受穹窿和断开的单褶的控制。相似的机制——也发现  相似文献   

海城震区深地震测深资料A/D转换方法及其效果的研究     

杨茜  赵国敏  白云  李志生 《东北地震研究》1993,(4)

介绍深地震测深模拟磁带资料在CROMEMCO型微机上实现A/D转换的方法及其效果。在实现A/D转换研究中,进行了时标信号采集方式、六响信号处理、模拟回放电路改进等方法的试验,从而提高了A/D转换精度与效果。经对海城震区实际资料分析可知:该系统A/D转换精度达到了规范要求。  相似文献   

钛-氨三乙酸-对氯苯基荧光酮-CTMAB四元配合物的分光光度法研究     

王东进  谢增鸿  樊祺泉  蔡文进  黄炳俊  张振欣 《岩矿测试》1990,(2)

本文研究Ti(Ⅳ)-氨三乙酸(NTA)-对氯苯基荧光酮(p-ClPF)-CTMAB四元配合物的显色条件。结果表明,在pH5.8—6.6形成了摩尔比为Ti(Ⅳ):NTA:p-ClPF:CTMAB=1:1:3:3的四元配合物,借此反应测定钛,灵敏度高,其ε_(573nm)=2.1×10~5L·mol~(-1)·cm~(-1)。Ti(Ⅳ)浓度在0—1.4μg/10ml范围服从比耳定律。已用本法直接测定了岩矿和铝合金中的Ti,结果满意。  相似文献   

华南花岗岩物源成因特征与陆壳演化   总被引：15，自引：1，他引：15  

刘昌实  朱金橙 《大地构造与成矿学》1990,14(2):125-138

华南不同时代的花岗岩按物质来源及成因可划分为:幔源(分异)系列:幔-壳混源(同熔)系列;壳源改造(重熔)系列和幔-壳混源碱性系列等四个不同的系列,简要阐述了划分四类系列的岩石学、地球化学的依据。侧重根据Sm-Nd、Rb-Sr同位素成分,以二元混合模型计算了花岗岩源区物质组成中,上壳和亏损地幔组份各占的比例。在此基础上探讨了不同物源成因系列花岗岩形成与华南陆壳演化的内在联系:东安、雪峰旋回褶皱系阶段花岗岩物源成因类型比较多样,有幔源(分异)系列、不成熟壳源、成熟壳源改造(重熔)系列等;加里东,海西期以陆壳改造(重熔)系列为主;印支、燕山期活化区(地洼)阶段,在地幔活化激发下,中国东部陆缘形成幔—壳混源(同熔)系列花岗岩和相应的火山岩;但沿内部断裂带,在壳下地幔热传输及构造作用下引起陆壳重熔,形成属于壳源改造(重熔)系列花岗岩。同位素的研究证明了:地洼阶段的构造-岩浆活动主要动力是来自壳下地幔的活化。  相似文献