Effective livelihood adaptation to climate change disturbance: Scale dimensions of practice in Mozambique   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Henny Osbahr  Chasca Twyman  W. Neil Adger  David S.G. Thomas 《Geoforum》2008,(6):1951-1964

Natural resource-dependent societies in developing countries are facing increased pressures linked to global climate change. While social-ecological systems evolve to accommodate variability, there is growing evidence that changes in drought, storm and flood extremes are increasing exposure of currently vulnerable populations. In many countries in Africa, these pressures are compounded by disruption to institutions and variability in livelihoods and income. The interactions of both rapid and slow onset livelihood disturbance contribute to enduring poverty and slow processes of rural livelihood renewal across a complex landscape. We explore cross-scale dynamics in coping and adaptation response, drawing on qualitative data from a case study in Mozambique. The research characterises the engagements across multiple institutional scales and the types of agents involved, providing insight into emergent conditions for adaptation to climate change in rural economies. The analysis explores local responses to climate shocks, food security and poverty reduction, through informal institutions, forms of livelihood diversification and collective land-use systems that allow reciprocity, flexibility and the ability to buffer shocks. However, the analysis shows that agricultural initiatives have helped to facilitate effective livelihood renewal, through the reorganisation of social institutions and opportunities for communication, innovation and micro-credit. Although there are challenges to mainstreaming adaptation at different scales, this research shows why it is critical to assess how policies can protect conditions for emergence of livelihood transformation.  相似文献   

Rain-induced debris and mudflow triggering factors assessment in the Santiago cordilleran foothills,Central Chile   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Sergio A. Sepúlveda  Cristóbal Padilla 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(2):201-215

Debris and mudflows are some of the main geological hazards in the mountain foothills of the Chilean capital city of Santiago. There, the risk of flows triggered in the basins of ravines that drain the range into the city increases with time due to the city growth. A multivariate statistical study based on the logistic regression method is presented. The model provides equations that allow the computation of combined meteorological triggering factors associated with a probability of rain-induced flow occurrence. Daily rainfall, accumulated rainfall and the snowfall level, traditionally considered as the relevant factors, are analysed for a 25-year period. The results show a strong relevance of the rainfall on the day of the flow event over the other factors. However, the relatively low probabilities returned for some real flow events suggest that the model does not capture all the significant variables and the problem is more complex than as it has been traditionally assumed, and further investigations are needed to develop predictive models of flow triggering.  相似文献   

松辽盆地尚家—太平川地区石油地质条件及勘探方向分析   总被引：17，自引：9，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文

施立志  林铁锋  吴海波  王卓卓  祁越 《地质科学》2008,43(3):558-568

通过对尚家—太平川地区构造演化、烃源岩特征、沉积特征、储盖组合、油水关系及油藏类型和油气成藏特征的分析,研究了本区的石油地质条件,认为烃源岩具有较好的生、排烃能力,分流河道砂体为油气聚集提供较好的沉积环境,良好的储盖组合有利于油气的聚集与保存。研究区没有统一油水界面,尚家地区以岩性—构造油藏为主,太平川地区以构造—岩性油藏为主。区内扶余—杨大城子油层油气成藏受有效性圈闭、优势运移通道、过剩压力、储集条件和构造诱导作用控制。据上述认识确定了研究区下一步的勘探方向,并已在指导勘探实践中取得了较好的效果。  相似文献   

Linkages between Alaskan sockeye salmon abundance, growth at sea, and climate, 1955–2002     

G.T. Ruggerone  J.L. Nielsen  J. Bumgarner 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2007,54(23-26):2776

We tested the hypothesis that increased growth of salmon during early marine life contributed to greater survival and abundance of salmon following the 1976/1977 climate regime shift and that this, in turn, led to density-dependent reductions in growth during late marine stages. Annual measurements of Bristol Bay (Bering Sea) and Chignik (Gulf of Alaska) sockeye salmon scale growth from 1955 to 2002 were used as indices of body growth. During the first and second years at sea, growth of both stocks tended to be higher after the 1976–1977 climate shift, whereas growth during the third year and homeward migration was often below average. Multiple regression models indicated that return per spawner of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon and adult abundance of western and central Alaska sockeye salmon were positively correlated with growth during the first 2 years at sea and negatively correlated with growth during later life stages. After accounting for competition between Bristol Bay sockeye and Asian pink salmon, age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon increased after the 1976–1977 regime shift, then decreased after the 1989 climate shift. Late marine growth and age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon was exceptionally low after 1989, possibly reducing their reproductive potential. These findings support the hypothesis that greater marine growth during the first 2 years at sea contributed to greater salmon survival and abundance, which in turn led to density-dependent growth during later life stages when size-related mortality was likely lower. Our findings provide new evidence supporting the importance of bottom-up control in marine ecosystems and highlight the complex dynamics of species interactions that continually change as salmon grow and mature in the ocean.  相似文献   

Modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of Western Baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Joachim Grger  Heye Rumohr 《Journal of Sea Research》2006,55(4):266-277

Long-term macrobenthos data from Kiel Bight in the Western Baltic collected between 1968 and 2000 have been correlated with the winter NAO index (North Atlantic Oscillation Index) and other environmental data such as temperature, salinity and oxygen content in the bottom water in order to detect systematic patterns related to so far unexplained abiotic signals in the dynamics of zoobenthic species assemblages. The benthos data come from a cluster of five stations (Süderfahrt/ Millionenviertel) in Kiel Bay. Our investigations concentrated on the macrobenthic dynamics with a focus on the number of species m^− 2 (species richness). Using logarithms and the time series analysis approach of Box/Jenkins (ARIMA modelling, transfer function modelling) it was shown that species richness was strongly influenced by the winter NAO (adjusted for a linear time trend within the 1968-2000 period) and salinity (with a shift/lag of four years). Bootstrapping experiments (i.e. sampling from the error process) and analysis of prediction power (by means of the one- or more-years leaving-out method) showed that the parameter estimates behaved in a stable way, leading to a relatively robust model.  相似文献   

基于EOF分析对南海西北海域水体光谱特性的研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

付东洋  黄宇业  刘大召  廖珊  余果  张小龙 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,39(7):107-114

This study presents an analysis of the spectral characteristics of remote sensing reflectance(R_(rs)) in northwestern South China Sea based on the in situ optical and water quality data for August 2018.R_(rs)was initially divided into four classes,classes A to D,using the max-classification algorithm,and the spectral properties of whole R_(rs) were characterized using the empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis.Subsequently,the dominant factors in each EOF mode were determined.The results indicated that more than 95% of the variances of R_(rs) are partly driven by the back-scattering characteristics of the suspended matter.The initial two EOF modes were well correlated with the total suspended matter and back-scattering coefficient.Furthermore,the first EOF modes of the four classes of R_(rs)(A-D R_(rs)-EOF_1) significantly contributed to the total variances of each R_(rs) class.In addition,the correlation coefficients between the amplitude factors of class A-D R_(rs)-EOF_1 and the variances of the relevant water quality and optical parameters were better than those of the unclassified ones.The spectral shape of class AR_(rs)-EOF_1 was governed by the absorption characteristic of chlorophyll a and colored dissolved organic matter(CDOM).The spectral shape of class B R_(rs)-EOF_1 was governed by the absorption characteristic of CDOM since it exhibited a high correlation with the absorption coefficient of CDOM(a_g(λ)),whereas the spectral shape of class C R_(rs)-EOF_1 was governed by the back-scattering characteristics but not affected by the suspended matter.The spectral shape of class D R_(rs)-EOF_1 exhibited a relatively good correlation with all the water quality parameters,which played a significant role in deciding its spectral shape.  相似文献   

The Bering Sea—A dynamic food web perspective     

Kerim Aydin  Franz Mueter   《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2007,54(23-26):2501

The Bering Sea is a high-latitude, semi-enclosed sea that supports extensive fish, seabird, marine mammal, and invertebrate populations and some of the world's most productive fisheries. The region consists of several distinct biomes that have undergone wide-scale population variation, in part due to fisheries, but also in part due to the effects of interannual and decadal-scale climatic variation. While recent decades of ocean observation have highlighted possible links between climate and species fluctuations, mechanisms linking climate and population fluctuations are only beginning to be understood. Here, we examine the food webs of Bering Sea ecosystems with particular reference to some key shifts in widely distributed, abundant fish populations and their links with climate variation. Both climate variability and fisheries have substantially altered the Bering Sea ecosystem in the past, but their relative importance in shaping the current ecosystem state remains uncertain.  相似文献   

大窑湾海域水化要素分布及相关关系的探讨     

邵秘华  孙茜  贺广凯  张国光  刘彤 《海洋科学进展》1995,(2)

本文依据大窑湾的环境调查资料为基础，系统地阐述了水体中化学要素ｐＨ、盐度、透明度、ＤＯ、ＣＯＤ、ＴＯＣ、浊度、悬浮物、ＮＨ４－Ｎ、ＮＯ２－Ｎ、ＮＯ３－Ｎ、ＰＯ４－Ｐ、ＳｉＯ３－Ｓｉ、Ｃｕ、Ｐｂ、Ｚｎ、Ｃｄ、Ａｓ、Ｈｇ、Ｃｒ、硫化物、六六六、石油等分布规律。诸要素主要是在潮流水动力支配下，形成扩散带。各要素中仅有无机氮和ＰＯ４－Ｐ两项含量超标，其余要素含量范围都是处于海水正常浓度水平，属于一类海水水质。文章并对各要素进行相关关系分析。  相似文献   

Geographical distribution of fish catches and temperature variations in the northeast Atlantic since 1945     

Rögnvaldur Hannesson 《Marine Policy》2007

Warming of the northeast Atlantic is expected to affect the location and productivity of fish stocks. It is examined whether variations in catches of cod, herring, mackerel, anchovy and sardines in the ICES statistical areas are related to variations in ocean temperature. Temperatures at certain locations along the Norwegian coast are taken as proxies for temperatures in the Norwegian Sea and the North Sea. It is found that the catches of cod in the North Sea are inversely correlated with temperature and that recruitment and catches of cod in the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea are positively related to temperature. There is also some indication of a positive correlation between temperature and the catches of mackerel in the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea, and between temperature and the catches of sardines in the North Sea.  相似文献   

The annual cycle of Synechococcus (cyanobacteria) in the northern Levantine Basin shelf waters (Eastern Mediterranean)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Zahit Uysal  & &#;rem Köksalan 《Marine Ecology》2006,27(3):187-197

Abundance of picoplanktonic chroococcoid marine cyanobacteria Synechococcus was monitored weekly over the year 1998 in shallow coastal waters of the northern Levantine Basin. The ambient physical, chemical and biological variables (temperature, salinity, Secchi disk depth, total suspended sediment, nitrate, phosphate, Chl a and phytoplankton) were also measured. Synechococcus was found to be more abundant during summer and early autumn and less during winter and early spring. At the surface and 15 m depth, cell concentrations were in the range 6.4 × 10³–1.5 × 10⁵ and 3.2 × 10³–1.6 × 10⁵ cells·ml⁻¹, respectively. Based on the Pearson product–moment correlation analysis, a highly significant correlation between Synechococcus abundance and ambient temperature was observed (n = 40, r = 0.558, P < 0.01). As Synechococcus forms blooms that usually do not last more than a week, the short time‐scale survey achieved in this study was appropriate to reveal its abundance dynamics. Several factors such as rapid changes in nutrient concentration (especially nitrate), phytoplankton, light availability, temperature, salinity, freshwater input and vertical mixing played a relevant role on the abundance of Synechococcus over the year in the highly dynamic shallow coastal waters of the Levantine Basin.  相似文献