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There is a well-established need for increased stakeholder participation in the generation of adaptive management approaches and specific solutions to complex environmental problems. However, integrating participant feedback into current science, research, and decision-making processes is challenging. This paper presents a novel approach that marries a rigorous Delphi method, borrowed from policy and organizational sciences, with contemporary “crowdsourcing” to address the complex problems of water pollution exacerbated by climate change in the Lake Champlain Basin. In an online Delphi forum that occurred over a six-week period during the Spring of 2014, fifty-three participants proposed and commented on adaptive solutions to address water quality in the context of climate change. In a follow up Multi-Stakeholder workshop, thirty-eight stakeholders participated in refining and synthesizing the results from the forum. To inform modeling and policy dialogue, the resulting list of interventions was analyzed by time horizon, domain, type of adaptation action, and priority level. The interventions suggested by stakeholders within the crowdsourcing forum have contributed to the current policy dialogue in Vermont including legislation to address phosphorus loading to Lake Champlain. This stakeholder approach strengthens traditional modeling scenario development to include solutions and priorities that have been collectively refined and vetted. 相似文献
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李广宇 《紫金山天文台台刊》1997,16(3):189-203
本文扼要叙述GSC星表应用软件的设计,从数据结构和算法两个方面介绍了Delphi可视化面向对象编程环境下对文件搜索、数据存储与排序、星图生成与检索等几个难点问题的处理。算法和数据结构的描述采用了warnier图。 相似文献
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基于正态云模型的深埋地下工程岩爆烈度分级预测研究 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
岩爆是深埋地下工程开挖建设过程中常见的工程地质灾害,对其发生的可能性及其烈度分级预测一直是岩石地下工程的世界性难题。针对岩爆烈度评估过程中存在的模糊性和随机性问题,建立了基于德尔菲法和正态云的综合评判模型。在系统分析影响岩爆发生的相关因素的基础上,选取岩石单轴抗压强度与抗拉强度比σc/σt、切向应力与岩石单轴抗压强度比σθ/σc、岩石脆性指数Is和弹性变形能指数Wet构建评价指标体系,通过德尔菲科学方法确定其权重系数。基于云模型理论计算各评价因子隶属于岩爆级别的云数字特征,生成正态云滴,实现了岩爆烈度与评价指标值之间的不确定映射,保留了评估过程中的随机性。最后,利用国内外典型岩爆工程实例对所建模型进行检验,其判别结果与实际岩爆等级相符,且准确率高于功效系数法和集对分析理论,表明采用云模型对岩爆烈度进行预测是可行的、有效的。该模型具有较高的准确性和可靠性,能满足工程应用需要,在深埋地下工程岩爆预测中具有良好的工程应用前景。 相似文献
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针对连云港市大比例尺海洋功能区划多源海量数据的特点,利用软件工程思想和地理信息系统相关软件,以Embarcadero RAD Studio XE2为开发环境,采用Delphi语言,结合ArcGIS Engine提供的接口和方法进行程序设计,开发海量空间数据综合信息平台“连云港市海洋功能区划信息系统”,实现对连云港市海洋功能区划信息的可视化管理和查询,给用户提供高效直观的信息,更好地利用连云港市的海洋功能区划数据,提高海洋开发的合理性和海洋管理的科学性,实现区划数据的动态管理和信息共享。 相似文献