Individual based simulations of population dynamics require the availability of growth models with adequate complexity. For this purpose a simple-to-use model (non-linear multiple regression approach) is presented describing somatic growth and reproduction of Daphnia as a function of time, temperature and food quantity. The model showed a good agreement with published observations of somatic growth (r2 = 0.954, n = 88) and egg production (r2 = 0.898, n = 35). Temperature is the main determinant of initial somatic growth and food concentration is the main determinant of maximal body length and clutch size. An individual based simulation was used to demonstrate the simultaneous effects of food and temperature on the population level. Evidently, both temperature and food supply affected the population growth rate but at food concentrations above approximately 0.4 mg Cl−1Scenedesmus acutus temperature appeared as the main determinant of population growth.
Four simulation examples are given to show the wide applicability of the model: (1) analysis of the correlation between population birth rate and somatic growth rate, (2) contribution of egg development time and delayed somatic growth to temperature-effects on population growth, (3) comparison of population birth rate in simulations with constant vs. decreasing size at maturity with declining food concentrations and (4) costs of diel vertical migration. Due to its plausible behaviour over a broad range of temperature (2–20 °C) and food conditions (0.1–4 mg Cl−1) the model can be used as a module for more detailed simulations of Daphnia population dynamics under realistic environmental conditions. 相似文献
We used multivariate statistical techniques to analyse the distributions of surface sediment chironomid assemblages with respect to surface-water temperature, and an additional set of 27 environmental variables, in 30 freshwater lakes of northern Fennoscandia. Our study transect spans boreal coniferous forest to subarctic tundra and includes a steep temperature gradient. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) with forward selection and associated Monte Carlo permutation tests revealed that there were statistically significant (P<0.05) relationships between chironomid distributions and two environmental variables, namely lakewater temperature and maximum lake depth. A constrained CCA with temperature as the only predictor variable suggested that the relationship between lakewater temperature and chironomid composition was sufficiently robust for developing a weighted-averaging (WA) based quantitative inference model that will allow palaeotemperature reconstructions using subfossil chironomid remains preserved in lake sediments. 相似文献
Hydrologic regionalization is a useful tool that allows for the transfer of hydrological information from gaged sites to ungaged
sites. This study developed regional regression equations that relate the two parameters in Nash's IUH model to the basin
characteristics for 42 major watersheds in Taiwan. In the process of developing the regional equations, different regression
procedures including the conventional univariate regression, multivariate regression, and seemingly unrelated regression were
used. Multivariate regression and seeming unrelated regression were applied because there exists a rather strong correlation
between the Nash's IUH parameters. Furthermore, a validation study was conducted to examine the predictability of regional
equations derived by different regression procedures. The study indicates that hydrologic regionalization involving several
dependent variables should consider their correlations in the process of establishing the regional equations. The consideration
of such correlation will enhance the predictability of resulting regional equations as compared with the ones from the conventional
univariate regression procedure. 相似文献
The varve data-set from a freeze-core taken in the deepest part of Baldeggersee was subjected to different multivariate statistical
analyses in order to estimate the amount of variance in the varve thickness measures explicable by past climate and by the
trophic state of the lake. A comparison of two different time-periods (1902 to1992 versus 1920 to 1980) revealed that the
lake restoration programme since 1982 has had a significant impact on the formation of the seasonal layers. Results of the
partitioning of the variance in the varve thickness measures showed that about two thirds of the variance are unexplained
by a climate and trophic state model and that trophic state explains 6%, whereas climate accounts for about 28% of the variance
before the effect of lake restoration had a strong impact on the varves. Among the climate parameters the amount of annual
precipitation is a strong predictor for explaining the thickness of both dark layer and total couplet thickness, whereas summer
precipitation is important for the thickness of the light layer. 相似文献