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The potential impacts of progressing climate change are alarming. Some adverse consequences are now unavoidable and adaptation measures are increasingly needful. This poses enormous challenges for emerging megacities in the Global South, which barely manage in current weather conditions. This paper introduces Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping as a new tool for structured, semi-quantitative assessments of climate change impacts and adaptation measures.Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping is used to evaluate differences in sensitivities to heatwaves and rainstorms across socio-economic groups and for the ranking of useful adaptation options, based on 188 individual interviews to the impacts of extreme weather events in Hyderabad, India. The results of this multi-stakeholder assessment indicate that rainstorms affect low-income residents more than heatwaves, while the opposite is true for medium-income respondents. The latter are also less seriously affected by extreme weather in general. Profession, though, not income determines the kind of impact that people feel most affected by. Individual characteristics like age and gender do not significantly explain differences in the data, but religion does. This is because, in Hyderabad, Muslims live in the older, less serviced and more affected parts of the city. However, semi-quantitative scenario analyses suggest that, under future climate change, many parts of the city will become increasingly exposed to the effects of extreme weather. Planned investments in urban infrastructure will be seriously challenged by climate change and preventive adaptation measures are urgently needed to at least maintain the current level of quality of life. Investments in the health infrastructure appear to be most effective in reducing the impact of heatwaves and investments in the traffic infrastructure most effective in reducing the impact of rainstorms. However, looking at heat and rain events together—which is realistic as they are both projected to increase and often occur in the same year—reveals that investments in water infrastructure and management have greatest potential to reduce impacts across all localities and on all social groups, particularly the lower-income classes. This is because first-order impacts caused by inadequate water infrastructure often give rise to second- or third-order impacts. Addressing the root cause is the most effective way to break cause-and-effect chains and prevent proliferation of negative consequences. Similar studies are suggested in other cities in order to support adaptation mainstreaming in complex urban environments. Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping proved a useful, semi-quantitative tool for climate change impact and adaptation assessments. 相似文献
33.
A systematic method is presented to construct a mapping model for a near-conservative system, based on that of Hadjidemetriou for a Hamiltonian system [1]. The mapping we constructed preserves the basic features of the actual system. We apply this method to the forced oscillating system and to the 3 : 1 resonant grain motion in the presence of Poynting-Robertson drag.Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China. 相似文献
34.
石榴子石是矽卡岩型矿床的标志性矿物之一,其结构和成分特征被广泛用来示踪早期成矿流体性质的变化,但其生长过程与金属元素富集过程的关系还不清楚。本文对长江中下游成矿带最西端鄂东矿集区内的铜山口铜钼钨矿床中的石榴子石开展了显微结构和电子探针主量元素、LA-ICP-MS微量元素点分析和面扫描分析。结果显示,铜山口矿床中的石榴子石端元成分以钙铁榴石-钙铝榴石为主,普遍含有一定量的W,特别是在钙铁榴石端元比例高的石榴子石中(可达3898×10-6),且W与Mo、As、Sn存在明显的正相关关系、与Ti存在一定的负相关关系,指示W以类质同象的方式进入石榴子石晶格。石榴子石可包裹结构简单的白钨矿或被具复杂结构的白钨矿交代,指示石榴子石记录了白钨矿形成前和形成过程中流体性质(氧逸度和W含量等)的变化。铜山口矿床中钙铁榴石的大量结晶,导致成矿早期W的大量分散,不利于高品位和大规模钨矿的形成,仅在这些钙铁榴石遭受强烈的退化蚀变时,释放的W在一定程度能够提高矿石的品位,这可能是氧化性矽卡岩型钨矿通常比还原性矽卡岩型钨矿品位低、规模小的重要原因。石榴子石的成分特征(如W、Sn等元素含量和W/Sn、W/Mo和W/As等比值)可以作为判断矽卡岩的氧化还原性和钨矿床的品位及规模的依据,并具有成为W、Mo和Sn等矿床的找矿勘查指示矿物的潜力。 相似文献
35.
Adolescent drug use is individually and socially harmful in terms of disrupting adolescent development and social cohesion. Prior research has identified populations at risk and risk factors for adolescent drug use. This research sought to contextualize adolescent drug use by examining this behavior from a geographic perspective. The specific objectives were to identify patterns, local clusters and excess spatial risk for 5-digit zip codes within the 5-county Cincinnati, Ohio region. Adolescents (n = 57,241) were recruited within local schools by the Coalition for a Drug-free Greater Cincinnati. Results of this research show spatial clusters for perceived safety of marijuana; peer approval of alcohol, tobacco and marijuana; and age of onset for other drugs. The location and nature of these clusters are discussed and displayed in-text. Further, zip codes that were in excess risk compared to the 5-county region were identified. The utility of this research is two-fold: (1) It identifies the geographic variability in adolescent drug use and correlated factors of use, and (2) It provides a methodological framework for future research in spatial epidemiology of drug use. 相似文献
36.
北京地区土壤背景值图的编制 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
本文对北京地区土壤背景值匿的编制进行了全面、系统的总结。编制土壤背景值图的基础资料有302十样点的无素测定值和运用计算机制图和因素分析法揭露的元素区域分布规律。土壤背景值图是采用分级统计图的形式。其制图单元:山区以母岩,平原地区以成土母质类型和土壤质地作为划分依据;背景值的数量分级采用显著性检验分级法。 相似文献
37.
本文侧重于全国性资源环境及有关自然条件等专题制图工作的现实基础和成就,作简要总结和回顾。针对提高和重新认识制图效益和重点进行讨论,提出科学效益是基础,社会效益是目的,经济效益是根本,为资源环境的合理开发利用提供依据,并提出今后发展设想。 相似文献
38.
Said Ettazarini 《Environmental Geology》2006,50(6):919-929
This study takes the groundwater of the Moroccan limestone aquifer of Oum Er-Rabia as an example of statistical and cartographical approaches in water resources management. Statistical analyses based on frequency distribution and PCA methods revealed the homogeneity of waters with the existence of abnormal points and have helped to assess correlations between the studied variables. The mapping approach illustrated that waters are influenced by the lithology of the surrounding rocks and are of Ca–Mg–HCO3, Ca–Mg–Cl–SO4, and mixed types according to the Piper classification. The quality of water is of high to medium, north of the basin, but it is of medium to bad, NE and south, due to excessive contents of chloride, sulfate and nitrate. According to the US Salinity Laboratory classification, water used for irrigation in the eastern and the southern parts of the basin should take into consideration the drainage conditions, the nature of plants and the addition of gypsum doses.
相似文献
Said EttazariniEmail: Phone: +212-66-407610 |
39.
2011-2012测绘学科发展研究综合报告(上) 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
本报告简要回顾了我国当代测绘科学技术从数字化测绘向信息化测绘过渡,并与当今世界新出现的地理空间信息学相互融合和渗透形成测绘与地理空间信息学这一新兴学科的历程,结合测绘学科的几个分支学科阐述了2011年-2012年测绘与地理空间信息的空间基准、获取技术、处理方法、服务方式和应用领域等几方面的主要进展。 相似文献
40.