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提出了一个基于3层PB神经网络的云南5月雨量的短期气候预测模型。由于神经网络本身是一个非线性动态系统,将其应用到短期气候变化预测这一非线性系统中,更能反映出气候系统状态量之间的物理关系和动力行为特性。并用该预测模型对云南5个区域1991~1998年的5月雨量距平趋势进行了共40次的预测试验和检验,其预测的距平符号相关准确率可达到77.5%。 相似文献
94.
基于无尺度结构的苏南乡镇公路网分析 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
从图论视角建立区域尺度乡镇公路网络图,并基于节点度D提出等级节点度Dr及规模节点度Dp。从无尺度结构视角,运用D、Dr、Dp指数及数理统计方法描述苏南乡镇公路网的异质结构,结果表明苏南乡镇公路网D并非无尺度结构,但其Dr和Dp符合无尺度结构。利用SPSS相关分析和GIS空间分析发现Dp与D相关性小,但与Dr相关性高且空间对应明显。乡镇Dp-Dr的互动机制空间显示为"核-带"式区域乡镇发展模式,这种开敞组团格局有利于区域发展与保护双赢,由此建议苏州、无锡和常武地区控制乡镇密集分布,集中合并乡镇,适当限制高级公路发展;南京、镇江及金坛、溧阳地区加强高级公路地"带"乡镇的发展力度。 相似文献
95.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1)
Abstract Abstract Accurate application of the longitudinal dispersion model requires that specially designed experimental studies are performed in the river reach under consideration. Such studies are usually very expensive, so in order to quantify the longitudinal dispersion coefficient, as an alternative approach, various researchers have proposed numerous empirical formulae based on hydraulic and morphometric characteristics. The results are presented of the application of artificial neural networks as a parameter estimation technique. Five different cases were considered with the network trained for different arrangements of input nodes, such as channel depth, channel width, cross-sectionally averaged water velocity, shear velocity and sinuosity index. In the case where the sinuosity index is included as an input node, the results turned out to be better than those presented by other authors. 相似文献
96.
Abstract The study of sediment load is important for its implications to the environment and water resources engineering. Four models were considered in the study of suspended sediment concentration prediction: artificial neural networks (ANNs), neuro-fuzzy model (NF), conjunction of wavelet analysis and neuro-fuzzy (WNF) model, and the conventional sediment rating curve (SRC) method. Using data from a US Geological Survey gauging station, the suspended sediment concentration predicted by the WNF model was in satisfactory agreement with the measured data. Also the proposed WNF model generated reasonable predictions for the extreme values. The cumulative suspended sediment load estimated by this model was much higher than that predicted by the other models, and is close to the observed data. However, in the current modelling, the ANN, NF and SRC models underestimated sediment load. The WNF model was successful in reproducing the hysteresis phenomenon, but the SRC method was not able to model this behaviour. In general, the results showed that the NF model performed better than the ANN and SRC models. Citation Mirbagheri, S. A., Nourani, V., Rajaee, T. & Alikhani, A. (2010) Neuro-fuzzy models employing wavelet analysis for suspended sediment concentration prediction in rivers. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1175–1189. 相似文献
97.
Understanding how science, technology and innovation can best help to accelerate progress in achieving sustainable development remains a grand challenge for researchers and practitioners. In the context of the global consultation process for preparing a post-2015 Sustainable Development Agenda, various science-based actor networks have emerged, aiming to translate research into political decision-making and to inform transformations towards sustainability. Over the last years, these networks seem to have taken an ever-growing role in structuring the science-policy interface in global sustainability governance. The question arises, however, how they understand and organize ‘scientific knowledge integration’ in sustainability politics.This study offers a structured comparison of twelve global science-based actor networks engaged in the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals. It shows that these networks use two types of strategies to foster scientific knowledge integration in sustainability governance. A new framework emerges, in which each strategy corresponds to two main approaches of scientific knowledge integration: The entrepreneurial strategy generally seeks to advance advice-oriented and solution-oriented knowledge processes, while assessment-oriented and learning-oriented processes in scientific knowledge integration are mainly promoted through a mediating strategy. 相似文献
98.
B. M. Troutman M. R. Karlinger 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1988,2(1):73-78
The instantaneous unit hydrograph for a channel network under general linear routing and conditioned on the network magnitude,N, tends asymptotically, asN grows large, to a Rayleigh probability density function. This behavior is identical to that of the width function of the network, and is proven under the assumption that the network link configuration is topologically random and the link hydraulic and geometric properties are independent and identically distributed random variables. The asymptotic distribution depends only on a scale factor,
, where is a mean link wave travel time. 相似文献
99.
Christian Werner 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1994,19(8):747-762
Every basin of higher than first order is drained by a channel network composed of two subnetworks. Their basins are separated by a drainage divide line, called the basin divider, which is the primary organizing feature of the main basin. Each basin of magnitude n contains n – 1 subnetworks of higher order, and is therefore organized by a set of n – 1 dividers. The dividers and the basin boundary are interconnected in a graph called the divider network of the basin; in graph-theoretic terms this network forms a tree and has the same magnitude and link numbers as the channel network draining the basin. While the subbasins and subnetworks of a drainage basin form a nesting hierarchy, the corresponding dividers do not; indeed, any two dividers share at most one node in common, and whether they do so is independent of whether the corresponding subbasins are nesting or disjoint. However, the dividers of nesting basins are linked by recursive relationships which permit the derivation of a set of algebraic equations; these equations relate the dividers of a basin to other basin components; for example, their combined length is equal to half the length of all first-order basin boundaries minus the length of the main basin boundary. The second part of the paper explores the dependence of the divider length on other basin parameters. The expected length, as predicted by the assumption of topological randomness, is clearly rejected by the data. An alternative approach (regression) is based on the observed magnitudes of the subbasins separated by each divider, and is reasonably successful in estimating divider length. The last section introduces the concept of the standardized basin defined by a boundary length of unity; the estimated lengths of the basin divider and the basin boundary permit an approximate reconstruction of the idealized basin shape and the location of the divider in it. 相似文献
100.
Zhang Shulin 《地理学报(英文版)》1995,(1)
1.PoPulation~aphyisthestudy0fthespatialdistributionmdarrangnatsofhumanpoPulation.ItisthesdenceofhowspatialvariarionsinthecomPosihon,growth,whgraion,anddistribLItionofpoPulatonsaiere1ataltospatialvariationsinthenatureofplaces.ThemethodsplayanimPohanroleinr… 相似文献