土地利用变化对20世纪中国地区气候干湿变化的影响   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

夏江江  杨庆  郑子彦  赵天保  严中伟  马柱国 《气候与环境研究》2015,20(2):154-166

利用CMIP5耦合模式历史情景和土地利用情景结果,定量评估了模拟的土地利用变化对20世纪中国地区气候干湿变化的影响。结果表明,土地利用的变化加剧了20世纪中国地区干旱化的进程,其贡献约为1/3。其中,湿润区具有显著变干的趋势,土地利用变化的贡献约为35.4%;半干旱区显著变干,土地利用对半干旱地区变干的贡献不显著;两种情景下干旱区干湿变化都不显著。在土地利用情景下,中国地区土地利用的变化主要表现为一级土地的减少和牧草用地的增加,二者分别从国土面积的72.7%和12.9%(1901年)变为36.0%和41.9%(2004年),且1950年代之后变化速率显著增大。其中大面积显著的变化主要发生在青藏高原、内蒙古以及新疆北部地区,导致这些地区降水减少、温度降低,而降水减少带来的干旱化作用大于温度降低带来的变湿作用。  相似文献   

中国天山艾肯达坂透风式下导风防雪工程     

王中隆 《山地学报》1994,(4)

据艾肯达坂风雪流形成条件，提出了贴地气层分离是公路吹雪堆积的机理，通过对密闭式下导风能量转换和流场结构的剖析，创造了透风式下导风防雪工程。其实施后，改变了公路因冬半年严重雪阻而不能通车的状况，经济效益和社会效益俱佳；  相似文献   

Field measurements of snow-drift threshold and mass fluxes,and related model simulations   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Judith?J.?JDoorschot  Michael?LehningEmail author  Anouck?Vrouwe 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2004,113(3):347-368

Field measurements were carried out to calculate the threshold friction velocity for snow saltation, and mass fluxes during snow drift. The wind was measured in three components by an ultrasonic anemometer, and the mass fluxes were determined using an optical sensor (snow particle counter), acoustic sensors (Flowcapt) and mechanical traps. The threshold friction velocity was found to be correlated to the grain size (R²=0.75). The mass flux measurements were compared with numerical simulations of snow drift, and it was demonstrated that the maximum snow transport takes place at shear stress values of roughly two times the average shear stress over 20 min. By implementing a probability distribution for the shear stress the mass flux was simulated with only the mean measured value of the shear stress as input. This procedure enables the future use of the numerical model for operational applications.  相似文献   

Review of behaviour of oil in freezing environments   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Fingas MF  Hollebone BP 《Marine pollution bulletin》2003,47(9-12):333-340

The current knowledge of the physical fate and behaviour of crude oil and petroleum products spilled in Arctic situations is reviewed. The fate and final deposition of oil in marine conditions is presented as based on the extant literature.

Spreading models were evaluated for oil on ice, under ice, in snow, in brash ice, and between blocks of ice. Models of oil transport under sheet and broken ice were considered, both for sea and river conditions. The ability of ice sheets to trap oil is discussed in relation to oil storage capacity. The effects of oil on a growing ice sheet were examined, both in terms of ice formation and the thermal effects of oil inclusions in ice. The migration of oil through ice was reviewed, focussing primarily on the movement through brine channels. The effects of oil on the surface of ice were considered, with emphasis on the effects of surface pools on ice melt. Similar consideration was given to the effects of oil on snow on the surface of ice.

The few quantitative studies of oil in open and dynamic ice conditions are reviewed. Observations of intentional small-scale spills in leads and ice fields are reviewed and compared with observations from real spills. The conditions under which “oil pumping” from leads occurs were quantified. The most common ultimate fate of oil in an ice field is to be released onto the water surface.  相似文献   

STARTER: a statistical GIS-based model for the prediction of snow avalanche susceptibility using terrain features—application to Alta Val Badia, Italian Dolomites   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alessandro Ghinoi  Chang-Jo Chung   《Geomorphology》2005,66(1-4):305

This article describes a methodology to localise areas with high potential towards natural snowpack instability under particular meteorological conditions, at the scale of an Alpine valley. Localisation is based on statistically relating known release areas of past avalanche events to maps of: (1) slope inclination, (2) slope orientation (aspect), (3) elevation, (4) distance from crest lines, (5) terrain roughness and (6) concavities/convexities. The maps have been built using two different GIS softwares while the statistical analyses have been performed with a specific software handling also Fuzzy Set theory algorithms. The results of the statistical analyses have been verified on test release—areas which have not been used as input data for the statistical analyses. Verification allowed to quantify how reliably the susceptibility values were calculated, to compare the values obtained using different combinations of terrain features and to finally decide on the most efficient combination. The susceptibility maps were calculated and verified for three different meteorological scenarios (given by three classes of snow depth). Verification has shown that the accuracy of the susceptibility maps was between 67% and 82%. The three susceptibility maps show a remarkable difference in the spatial pattern of the highest susceptibility pixels suggesting that for different meteorological scenarios different classes of terrain features need to be considered.The possibility to make combinations of terrain features and to assess and verify their statistical relationship with release areas of past avalanche events is the major original step made by STARTER. Linking those release areas to meteorological scenarios is an attempt to include in the analysis the combined influence of terrain features and meteorological conditions towards snowpack instability.  相似文献   

积雪季节变化特征的数值模拟及其敏感性试验   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

陈海山  孙照渤 《气象学报》2004,62(3):269-284

文中利用综合陆面模式 (ComprehensiveLandSurfaceModel,CLSM )对法国ColdePorte 1 993/ 1 994 ,1 994 / 1 995年及BOREASSSA OJP 1 994 / 1 995年积雪个例进行了模拟试验 ,通过模拟结果与观测资料的对比 ,检验了CLSM对积雪变化特征的模拟能力 ,并通过敏感性试验探讨了降雪密度、积雪持水量等积雪参数化方案及植被对积雪模拟可能产生的影响。结果表明 :(1 )CLSM能够准确地模拟出积雪的变化过程 ,对积雪的演变特征作出了合理的描述 ;(2 )降雪密度、积雪持水量参数化方案对积雪模拟结果均具有一定的影响 :降雪密度参数化主要对积雪深度的模拟产生影响 ;而积雪持水量参数化方案对积雪的演变过程 ,尤其是积雪的消融 ,具有重要的作用 ;(3)有、无植被存在的情况下 ,积雪 土壤系统的变化过程存在显著的差别 ,植被通过改变积雪 /土壤表面的能量平衡 ,对积雪及土壤的变化过程产生重要影响 :植被的存在有利于积雪的维持 ,使得积雪融化进程推迟 ,冻结土壤的增温明显偏慢  相似文献   

用EOS/MODIS资料反演积雪深度参量   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4  

李三妹  傅华  黄镇  刘玉洁  镨拉提 《干旱区地理》2006,29(5):718-725

利用EOS/MODIS可见光、近红外及短红外多通道资料以及新疆地区积雪深度气象台站实测资料等,在考虑积雪性质包括积雪粒子相态、积雪年龄等的差异以及积雪区的下垫面条件包括地表粗糙度、土地覆盖类型等的不同的情况下进行积雪分类,在此基础上,建立EOS/MODIS积雪深度反演模型,实现深度在30 cm以内的积雪深度反演的主要原理、思路及方法,并对模型的反演结果进行了验证。结果表明,利用该模型对30 cm以内的积雪进行深度反演计算,其精度能达到80%以上。  相似文献   

被动微波遥感反演中国西部地区雪深、雪水当量算法初步研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

孙之文  施建成  蒋玲梅  杨虎  张立新 《地球科学进展》2006,21(12):1363-1369

雪深、雪水当量是积雪研究中重要参数，其在流域水量平衡和融雪径流预报以及雪灾监测与评价中起着重要作用。Chang等(1987)以辐射传输理论和米氏散射为理论基础，假定积雪密度和颗粒大小为常数，利用实测雪深数据和SMMR的亮温数据，通过统计回归方法，建立了雪深与18 GHz和37 GHz水平极化的亮温梯度之间的关系，发展了SMMR半经验的反演雪深的算法。后在此基础上又发展了针对SSM/I的半经验反演雪深算法。2002年发射的装载于Aqua卫星上的AMSR E是新一代的被动微波辐射计，性能较以往星载被动微波辐射计有较大提高，采用了改进后的SSM/I的半经验算法作为其估算全球雪水当量的反演算法。 将AMSR E的雪水当量产品与气象台站观测的雪水当量进行比较，发现在新疆地区和青藏高原地区雪水当量的RMSE分别达到31.8 mm和21 mm。本研究旨在建立基于AMSR E亮温数据，适用于中国西部地区的雪深和雪水当量反演算法。首先收集整理了2003年新疆地区的雪深、雪水当量数据和AMSR E亮温数据，去除错误样本，利用统计回归的方法，建立了新疆的反演雪深、雪水当量的半经验算法，算法中加入积雪覆盖度参数，较以往的算法有所改进，与气象台站观测数据比较，结果也表明新疆地区建立的经验算法较AMSR E的雪水当量算法有较大改进，RMSE为15.7 mm。但青藏高原地区因海拔高，地形复杂，大部分地区积雪较浅,空间分布不均和冻土存在等诸多因素运用同样的方法建立反演算法，结果不甚理想，以后的研究将重点消除这些干扰因素。  相似文献   

陕西2005-03-10强寒潮天气过程分析     

侯明全  宁志谦 《山西气象》2006,27(4):9-12

本文利用MM5模式,采用数值模拟方法,诊断分析了北京“12.7”强降雪的发生机理,发现500hPa湿位涡与降雪区有较好的相关性  相似文献   

北京夏季不同等级降水过程与旱涝关系的分析   总被引：9，自引：2，他引：7  

陆晨  李青春 《气象》1998,24(3):38-41

利用北京地区近百年的逐日降水资料,对北京夏季（６￣８月）不同等级降水过程的时间演变及其与夏季旱涝的关系进行了分析。提出北京夏季的旱涝与暴雨过程的关系最为密切,也就是说北京夏季暴雨过程的多少直接反映出夏季反映出夏季旱涝情况;并分析了偏旱和偏涝年代不同降水过程出现的频次。指出,年代偏旱或偏涝与降水过程次数的多少关系不大,而与降水强度即暴雨过程的多少和暴雨的强度有密切的关系。因此旱涝的短期气候预测必须与  相似文献