Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland     

Erik Rüttener  Juan José Egozcue  Dieter Mayer-Rosa  Stephan Mueller 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):165-178

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.  相似文献   

About the specification of erosion flux for soft stratified cohesive sediments     

Georges Chapalain  Y. Peter Sheng  André T. Temperville 《Mathematical Geology》1994,26(6):651-676

The present paper deals with the specification of bed erosion flux that accounts for the effects of sediment-induced stratification in the water column. Owing to difficulties in measuring the bed shear stress _b and the erosive shear strength _s, we suggest a series of methods that combine laboratory and numerical experiments. A simplified turbulent transport model that includes these effects helps to quantify _b and _s. Focusing on soft stratified beds, the present study considers erosion rate formulas of the form =_f exp {[T_b-T_s]} where is a model constant (=1 for Gularte's (1978) formula and =1/2 for Parchure's (1984) formula). First, the bed erosive strength profile _s(Z) is adjusted by forcing the turbulent transport model with measured erosion rates. Second, three procedures are suggested to determine the erosion rate formula coefficients _f and : a global procedure and two different layer-by-layer procedures. Each procedure is applied to an erosion experiment conducted in a rotating annular flume by Villaret and Paulic (1986). The use of the layer-by-layer procedure based on a least squares fitting technique provides a closer fit than the global procedure. The present study points out the complementarity of experimental and numerical approaches and also suggests possible improvements in laboratory test procedures.  相似文献   

Probabilistic seismic hazard zonation of Syria     

Abdallah I. Husein Malkawi  Robert Y. Liang  Jamal H. Nusairat  Azm S. Al-Homoud 《Natural Hazards》1995,12(2):139-151

Earthquake hazard maps for Syria are presented in this paper. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) on bedrock, both with 90% probability of not being exceeded during a life time of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively are developed. The probabilistic PGA and MMI values are evaluated assuming linear sources (faults) as potential sources of future earthquakes. A new attenuation relationship for this region is developed. Ten distinctive faults of potential earthquakes are identified in and around Syria. The pertinent parameters of each fault, such as theb-parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter formula, the annual rate ₄ and the upper bound magnitudem ₁ are determined from two sets of seismic data: the historical earthquakes and the instrumentally recorded earthquake data (AD 1900–1992). The seismic hazard maps developed are intended for preliminary analysis of new designs and seismic check of existing civil engineering structures.  相似文献   

成都城市发展对热岛强度影响的主成份回归分析     

石凤云  唐佑民 《成都信息工程学院学报》1991,(Z1)

本文对成都市总人口、建成区面积等11个因子、作了主成份回归L-S估计和M-估计,讨论了成都城市发展对“热岛”强度的主要影响因子。结果表明,城区房屋建筑面积及总人口数是影响城市气候(气温)的主要因子,其次为城市人口总户数、建成面积等。 文中,对回归方程进行了拟合计算,回归效果比较满意(尤其是稳健回归)。  相似文献   

Airborne gamma-ray spectrometry to quantify chemical erosion processes     

F. Carrier  B. Bourdon  . Pili  C. Truffert  R. Wyns 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》2006,88(1-3):266

Airborne gamma-ray spectrometry data (uranium, potassium and thorium contents) reveal geochemical heterogeneities within the monolithological Hyrôme watershed (ca. 150 km²) in the Armorican massif (western France). Our observations and computations provide important constraints on the spatial distribution and the associated magnitudes of chemical erosion processes at the scale of a small watershed. Two distinct, partially preserved, weathering profiles exhibit a strong correlation between regolith evolution and airborne-derived K/Th ratios, suggesting that the variability is linked to supergene processes. Using both airborne data and laboratory measurements on rock samples, the total net export of potassium has been estimated at 422 ± 50 kg/m² and the chemical weathering rate of potassium at 17 ± 2 kg/km²/a.  相似文献   

Research on soil erosion prediction of highway rebuilding project in Tibet     

《中国地球化学学报》2006,25(B08):108-109

  相似文献   

Atténuation de l'intensité macrosismique pour la France métropolitaine : importance de l'intensité épicentrale     

Pierre Arroucau  Antoine Mocquet  Pierre Vacher 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2006,338(9):596-605

The main result of this work is to show that macroseismic intensity decay with distance strongly depends on the epicentral intensity. An attenuation law that takes this parameter into account is proposed for Metropolitan France, from the analysis of SISFRANCE macroseismic database. Such a model significantly reduces the difference between observed and theoretical intensities. A map of the attenuation variations is also set up for Metropolitan France. No major site effects are observed, but at a broad scale, young Alpine regions display a stronger attenuation than old Hercynian regions. To cite this article: P. Arroucau et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).  相似文献   

A high resolution relative paleointensity record from the Gerlache-Boyd paleo-ice stream region, northern Antarctic Peninsula     

Verónica Willmott  Eugene W. Domack  Stefanie Brachfeld 《Quaternary Research》2006,66(1):1-11

Herein we document and interpret an absolute chronological dating attempt using geomagnetic paleointensity data from a post-glacial sediment drape on the western Antarctic Peninsula continental shelf. Our results demonstrate that absolute dating can be established in Holocene Antarctic shelf sediments that lack suitable material for radiocarbon dating. Two jumbo piston cores of 10-m length were collected in the Western Bransfield Basin. The cores preserve a strong, stable remanent magnetization and meet the magnetic mineral assemblage criteria recommended for reliable paleointensity analyses. The relative paleomagnetic intensity records were tuned to published absolute and relative paleomagnetic stacks, which yielded a record of the last ∼8500 years for the post-glacial drape. Four tephra layers associated with documented eruptions of nearby Deception Island have been dated at 3.31, 3.73, 4.44, and 6.86 ± 0.07 ka using the geomagnetic paleointensity method. This study establishes the dual role of geomagnetic paleointensity and tephrochronology in marine sediments across both sides of the northern Antarctic Peninsula.  相似文献   

东北漫岗黑土区春季冻融期浅沟侵蚀   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

张永光  伍永秋  刘宝元 《山地学报》2006,24(3):306-311

浅沟侵蚀是东北漫岗黑土区农耕地上常见的水蚀类型,往往对坡耕地造成严重的破坏。2005年春季,通过对两个小流域浅沟侵蚀的调查测量,发现该区浅沟侵蚀相当严重,两流域分别形成浅沟14条、16条,浅沟总长度分别达3 269 m、2 146 m,浅沟密度分别为908 m/km2、766 m/km2,侵蚀深度分别为0.17 mm、0.16 mm,侵蚀模数分别达181.8 t/km2、173.6 t/km2。2005年春季两流域浅沟侵蚀期的径流深分别是6.8 mm、7.7 mm。分析表明,研究区在春季表层土壤解冻、地表裸露和存在季节性冻土层的条件下,春季融雪及强降水易造成强烈的浅沟侵蚀。在分布上,浅沟一般位于坡面的中下部,而且多发育在瓦背状坡面的集流水路上。另外,耕作措施对浅沟的形成和发展也有重要影响。  相似文献   

Effect of polypropylene fibre and lime admixture on engineering properties of clayey soil   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Yi Cai  Bin Shi  Charles W.W. Ng  Chao-sheng Tang 《Engineering Geology》2006,87(3-4):230-240

In order to reduce the brittleness of soil stabilized by lime only, a recent study of a newly proposed mixture of polypropylene fibre and lime for ground improvement is described and reported in the paper. To investigate and understand the influence of the mixture of polypropylene fibre and lime on the engineering properties of a clayey soil, nine groups of treated soil specimens were prepared and tested at three different percentages of fibre content (i.e. 0.05%, 0.15%, 0.25% by weight of the parent soil) and three different percentages of lime (i.e. 2%, 5%, 8% by weight of the parent soil). These treated specimens were subjected to unconfined compression, direct shear, swelling and shrinkage tests. Through scanning electron microscopy (SEM) analysis of the specimens after shearing, the improving mechanisms of polypropylene fibre and lime in the soil were discussed and the observed test results were explained. It was found that fibre content, lime content and curing duration had significant influence on the engineering properties of the fibre–lime treated soil. An increase in lime content resulted in an initial increase followed by a slight decrease in unconfined compressive strength, cohesion and angle of internal friction of the clayey soil. On the other hand, an increase in lime content led to a reduction of swelling and shrinkage potential. However, an increase in fibre content caused an increase in strength and shrinkage potential but brought on the reduction of swelling potential. An increase in curing duration improved the unconfined compressive strength and shear strength parameters of the stabilized soil significantly. Based on the SEM analysis, it was found that the presence of fibre contributed to physical interaction between fibre and soil whereas the use of lime produced chemical reaction between lime and soil and changed soil fabric significantly.  相似文献