Reservoir Characterization of McMurray Formation by 2D Geostatistical Modeling     

Weishan Ren  Jason A. Mclennan  Oy Leuangthong  Clayton V. Deutsch 《Natural Resources Research》2006,15(2):111-117

There is a need to estimate reserve uncertainty for large lease areas. Detailed 3D models of heterogeneity are not necessarily required, but there is a need to integrate all available data into an in-situ reserve estimate with uncertainty. A 2D mapping approach is presented to appraise reserves accounting for multiple variables, multiple data sources, and uncertainty. The approach can be considered in three primary steps: (1) Bayesian updating is used to determine local distributions of uncertainty for each primary variable while integrating multiple secondary information, (2) matrix simulation is employed to jointly and simultaneously simulate multiple collocated variables to determine a derived variable such as OOIP, and (3) probability field simulation then is applied to permit joint simulation of multiple locations. This methodology permits local and global uncertainty assessment while integrating multiple sources of information. An application to the McMurray Formation in Alberta, Canada is demonstrated.  相似文献   

对比地震记录信噪比的几种估算方法   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

牛聪  詹毅  李辉峰 《物探化探计算技术》2006,28(1):5-9

估算地震记录信噪比的三种方法有SVD法、统计平均分析法和频率域估算法。利用理论模型分别对它们进行对比评价,得出当地震记录有效信号的水平相关性比较好时,三种方法都可以得到较理想的结果;但当地震记录有效信号为非水平时,三种方法均存在不同的问题。在此基础上提出了相关时移法,该方法考虑了地震记录道间有效信号的相位变化,比起其它方法来更能得出好的结果。  相似文献   

A methodology using GIS, aerial photos and remote sensing for loss estimation and flood vulnerability analysis in the Supersano-Ruffano-Nociglia Graben, southern Italy   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

F. Forte  R. O. Strobl  L. Pennetta 《Environmental Geology》2006,50(4):581-594

The impact of calamitous meteoric events and their interaction with the geological and geomorphological environment represent a current problem of the Supersano-Ruffano-Nociglia Graben in southern Italy. Indeed, severe floods take place on a frequent basis not only in autumn and winter, but in summer also. These calamities are not only triggered by exceptional events, but are also amplified by peculiar geological and morpho-structural characteristics of the Graben. Flooding often affects vast agricultural areas and consequently, water-scooping machines cannot remove the rainwater. These events cause warnings and emergency states, involving people as well as socio–economic goods. This study represents an application of a vanguard technique for loss estimation and flood vulnerability analysis, integrating a geographic information system (GIS) with aerial photos and remote sensing methods. The analysis results clearly show that the Graben area is potentially at greatest flood vulnerability, while along the Horsts the flood vulnerability is lower.  相似文献   

Estimation of groundwater recharge using water balance coupled with base-flow-record estimation and stable-base-flow analysis   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Cheng-Haw Lee  Wei-Ping Chen  Ru-Huang Lee 《Environmental Geology》2006,51(1):73-82

In this paper, the long-term mean annual groundwater recharge of Taiwan is estimated with the help of a water-balance approach coupled with the base-flow-record estimation and stable-base-flow analysis. Long-term mean annual groundwater recharge was derived by determining the product of estimated long-term mean annual runoff (the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration) and the base-flow index (BFI). The BFI was calculated from daily streamflow data obtained from streamflow gauging stations in Taiwan. Mapping was achieved by using geographic information systems (GIS) and geostatistics. The presented approach does not require complex hydrogeologic modeling or detailed knowledge of soil characteristics, vegetation cover, or land-use practices. Contours of the resulting long-term mean annual P, BFI, runoff, groundwater recharge, and recharge rates fields are well matched with the topographical distribution of Taiwan, which extends from mountain range toward the alluvial plains of the island. The total groundwater recharge of Taiwan obtained by the employed method is about 18 billion tons per year.An erratum to this article can be found at  相似文献   

New Indices for Characterizing Spatial Models of Ore Deposits by the Use of a Sensitivity Vector and an Influence Factor     

Katsuaki Koike  Setsuro Matsuda 《Mathematical Geology》2006,38(5):541-564

Precise spatial estimation of ore grades and impurity contents from sample data limited in amount and location is indispensable to metallic and nonmetallic resource exploration. One of the advantages of using geostatistics for this purpose is that it can incorporate multivariate data into spatial estimation of one variable. However, there are two weak points concerning technical and post-processing problems. First is the difficulty in application to geologic data in which spatial correlations are not clear because of intrinsic nonlinear behavior. Second is the absence of indices to interpret the mechanisms and factors which govern the spatial distribution. To address these problems, a spatial method of modeling based on a feedforward neural network, SLANS, which recognizes the relationship between the data value and location by considering supplementary attributes such as lithology and biostratigraphy, and a sensitivity analysis using this network were developed. These methods were applied to two case studies, genetic mechanisms of kuroko deposits and quality assessment of a limestone mine. The first case study is a spatial analysis of principal metals of kuroko deposits (volcanogenic massive sulfide deposits) in the Hokuroku district, northern Japan. It was clarified that upward and downward sensitivity vectors were distinguished near the deposits inside and outside the tectonic basin, respectively. Sensitivity analysis for the second case study showed a strong effect of crystalline limestone on the important impurity, P₂O₅ contents. Hydrothermal alteration, which could cause leaching and secondary concentration of phosphorus, is considered to have produced this effect.  相似文献   

确定实时序贯平差自适应因子取值范围的方法   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

黄贤源  隋立芬 《测绘科学技术学报》2006,23(5):325-327

自适应序贯平差过程中,自适应因子的不同取值可以调节模型参数的先验信息和观测信息在平差过程中的利用程度,从而使未知参数的平差值接近真值.但是自适应因子取值过大或者过小都有可能使平差结果超出后验方差估计的范围,这样平差结果虽然接近真值但是却没有现实意义和实用价值.根据后验方差估计的原理,提出了利用后验方差估计确定序贯平差中自适应因子的取值范围;并给出了相应的计算步骤.通过计算实例证明该方法不仅具有实时序贯平差平衡观测值与参数先验值的功能,而且使计算结果具有实际意义.  相似文献   

Stochastic management of pump-and-treat strategies using surrogate functions   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Domenico A. Baú  Alex S. Mayer 《Advances in water resources》2006,29(12):1901-1917

Typical pump-and-treat (PAT) optimization problems involve design of pumping schemes, while minimizing cost and meeting a set of constraints. Due to scarcity of information about the hydrogeological system, stochastic modeling approaches can be used to assess tradeoffs between optimality and reliability. Using a stochastic approach, the constrained, single-objective problem may be turned into a multiobjective problem by substituting constraint inequalities with an additional objective function (OF) that accounts for the reliability of the PAT process. In this work, two approaches are analyzed: in one case, the additional OF consists of the probability of failure of a given remediation policy; in another, the OF additional is represented by the recourse, namely the penalty cost induced by the violation of constraints. In order to overcome the overwhelming computational cost required by stochastic simulation, surrogate forms of the OFs are introduced. In the test case under investigation, such functions are estimated by a kriging interpolation of the OF over a series of data points obtained from stochastic simulations of flow and transport, and calibrated against stochastic optimization solutions. The analysis of the two approaches for addressing the tradeoff of cost vs. reliability indicates that recourse accounts not only for the frequency of constraint violations, as the probability of failure does, but also for the intensity with which these occur. Ultimately, the recourse method allows considering less restrictive policies, although these may be highly sensitive to the choice of penalty functions.  相似文献   

The use of scale recursive estimation for short term quantitative precipitation forecast     

D. Bocchiola  R. Rosso 《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2006,31(18):1228-1239

Scale recursive estimation (SRE) is adopted for short term quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The precipitation field is modelled using a lognormal random cascade, well suited to properly represent the scaling properties of rainfall fields. To estimate the random cascade parameters, scale recursive maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is carried out by the iterative expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. To illustrate the potentiality of the SRE, forecast of a synthetically generated rainfall time series is shown. Adaptive estimation of the process parameters is carried out and precipitation forecasts are issued. The forecasts from the SRE are compared with those from standard ARMA models, showing a good performance. The SRE is then adopted for forecasting of an observed half hourly precipitation series for a two day storm event in northern Italy. The SRE provides good performance and it can therefore be adopted as a tool for short term QPF.  相似文献   

Calibration framework for a Kalman filter applied to a groundwater model     

Jean-Philippe Drécourt  Henrik Madsen  Dan Rosbjerg 《Advances in water resources》2006

The paper presents a novel approach to the setup of a Kalman filter by using an automatic calibration framework for estimation of the covariance matrices. The calibration consists of two sequential steps: (1) Automatic calibration of a set of covariance parameters to optimize the performance of the system and (2) adjustment of the model and observation variance to provide an uncertainty analysis relying on the data instead of ad-hoc covariance values. The method is applied to a twin-test experiment with a groundwater model and a colored noise Kalman filter. The filter is implemented in an ensemble framework. It is demonstrated that lattice sampling is preferable to the usual Monte Carlo simulation because its ability to preserve the theoretical mean reduces the size of the ensemble needed. The resulting Kalman filter proves to be efficient in correcting dynamic error and bias over the whole domain studied. The uncertainty analysis provides a reliable estimate of the error in the neighborhood of assimilation points but the simplicity of the covariance models leads to underestimation of the errors far from assimilation points.  相似文献   

Stochastic modelling and risk analysis of groundwater pollution using FORM coupled with automatic differentiation     

Husam Baalousha  Jürgen Kngeter 《Advances in water resources》2006,29(12):1815-1832

The first order reliability method (FORM) has been widely used in probabilistic modelling of groundwater problems. The FORM approach requires an iterative optimization procedure to find out the system failure point (the most probable point).The advantages of this approach are that it does not require many computations in comparison with other methods when applied to simple problems, and it produces reasonably accurate results. However, it has been found that the computations of FORM can equal or exceed that of other methods in case of large number of variables.In this paper, a new implementation of FORM was proposed with more efficiency and accuracy than the traditional FORM method. In the proposed approach, automatic differentiation is used to obtain the gradient vector of the limit state function, which is required by FORM, instead of using finite difference estimation. This way, the first order derivative was obtained with a very good accuracy, and with less computational effort. Based on the obtained results, it is found that the proposed implementation of FORM is a very good tool for probabilistic risk assessment and uncertainty analysis in groundwater problems.  相似文献