基于理论模型与美国经验证据的城市增长序贯模式(英文)     

盛科荣  孙威  樊杰 《地理学报(英文版)》2014,(6)

City growth patterns are attracting more attention in urban geography studies. This paper examines how cities develop and grow in the upper tail of size distribution in a large-scale economy based on a theoretical model under new economic geography framework and the empirical evidence from the US. The results show that cities grow in a sequential pattern. Cities with the best economic conditions are the first to grow fastest until they reach a critical size, then their growth rates slow down and the smaller cities farther down in the urban hierarchy become the fastest-growing ones in sequence. This paper also reveals three related features of urban system. First, the city size distribution evolves from low-level balanced to primate and finally high-level balanced pattern in an inverted U-shaped path. Second, there exist persistent discontinuities, or gaps, between city size classes. Third, city size in the upper tail exhibits conditional convergence characteristics. This paper could not only contribute to enhancing the understanding of urbanization process and city size distribution dynamics, but also be widely used in making effective policies and scientific urban planning.  相似文献   

Can Adaptive Observations Improve Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts?简     

QIN Xiaohao  MU Mu 《大气科学进展》2014,31(2):252-262

In order to investigate whether adaptive observations can improve tropical cyclone （TC） intensity forecasts,observing system simulation experiments （OSSEs） were conducted for 20 TC cases originating in the western North Pacific during the 2010 season according to the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） sensitivity,using the fifth version of the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model （MM5） and its 3DVAR assimilation system.A new intensity index was defined as the sum of the number of grid points within an allocated square centered at the corresponding forecast TC central position,that satisfy constraints associated with the Sea Level Pressure （SLP）,near-surface horizontal wind speed,and accumulated convective precipitation.The higher the index value is,the more intense the TC is.The impacts of the CNOP sensitivity on the intensity forecast were then estimated.The OSSE results showed that for 15 of the 20 cases there were improvements,with reductions of forecast errors in the range of 0.12％-8.59％,which were much less than in track forecasts.The indication,therefore,is that the CNOP sensitivity has a generally positive effect on TC intensity forecasts,but only to a certain degree.We conclude that factors such as the use of a coupled model,or better initialization of the TC vortex,are more important for an accurate TC intensity forecast.  相似文献   

一次暴雨与特大暴雪并存的华北强降水过程分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

杨晓亮  王咏青  杨敏  李江波  张叶  田雨润 《气象》2014,40(12):1446-1454

应用常规观测资料、NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,对2012年11月3—4日华北地区产生大范围雨雪天气的成因和降水相态进行分析。结果表明:深厚的低涡和地面气旋是本次过程的直接影响系统,东南风低空急流带来东部海上的充沛水汽,使得暴雨雪区整层大气可降水量远高于当月平均值;低涡和气旋等低层辐合系统与高空辐散叠置,为强雨雪天气提供了持久强烈的上升运动,暴雨区、暴雪区分别为对流不稳定、条件性对称不稳定大气层结,而锋生作用更有利于暴雪产生;雪花形成和增长的环境条件与雪花下降过程是否融化在判断降水相态方面同等重要,二者兼具才能保证地面降雪的出现。  相似文献   

一次冬季暴雨过程中的锋生和条件对称不稳定分析   总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3  

张芳华  陈涛  杨舒楠  孙军 《气象》2014,40(9):1048-1057

基于观测资料和NCEP再分析资料,并结合中尺度数值模拟,对2012年1月14—15日我国江南和华南冬季暴雨过程中的锋生与条件对称不稳定(conditional symmetric instablility,CSI)进行诊断分析。结果表明,南支锋区上短波槽东移配合低层冷空气活动,在江南南部到华南地区形成了明显的锋生过程,构成了有利于暴雨过程的天气尺度环流背景;来自孟加拉湾异常充沛的水汽输送形成了冷季暴雨所必须的水汽条件,异常强盛的高空急流人口区右侧的强辐散区也有利于暴雨的形成。在降水过程中锋面附近有多条中尺度雨带活动,锋生函数分析表明,14日夜间广西境内锋生明显增强,在潜热释放的影响下CSI开始发展,相应的锋生次级环流也有所发展,锋前暖区中的上升运动随之增强,导致广西北部形成较强的中尺度降雨带。分析表明,锋生次级环流和CSI实质是锋面次级环流方程(Sawyer-Elissen方程)在不同稳定性条件下的解,锋生强迫环流的性质可由湿位涡作为等价判据进行分析。  相似文献   

利用SVM-CRF进行高光谱遥感数据分类   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李祖传  马建文  张睿  李利伟 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2011,(3):306-310

提出了一种改进的随机场模型SVM-CRF,它以支持向量机作为条件随机场的一阶势能项,结合了支持向量机和条件随机场的优点。采用AVIRIS高光谱遥感数据进行实验,对SVM-CRF模型进行了分析,结果表明,在分类精度上SVM-CRF优于支持向量机和传统条件随机场模型。  相似文献   

Seismic performance of wood‐frame houses in south‐western British Columbia     

Katsuichiro Goda  Gail M. Atkinson 《地震工程与结构动力学》2011,40(8):903-924

The seismic performance of conventional wood‐frame structures in south‐western British Columbia is analytically investigated through incremental dynamic analysis by utilizing available UBC‐SAWS models, which were calibrated based on experimental test results. To define an adequate target response spectrum that is consistent with information from national seismic hazard maps, record selection/scaling based on the conditional mean spectrum (CMS) is implemented. Furthermore, to reflect complex seismic hazard contributions from different earthquake sources (i.e. crustal events, interface events, and inslab events), we construct CMS for three earthquake types, and use them to select and scale an adequate set of ground motion records for the seismic performance evaluation. We focus on the impacts of adopting different record selection criteria and of using different shear‐wall types (Houses 1–4; in terms of seismic resistance, House 1>House 2>House 3>House 4) on the nonlinear structural response. The results indicate that the record selection procedures have significant influence on the probabilistic relationship between spectral acceleration at the fundamental vibration period and maximum inter‐story drift ratio, highlighting the importance of taking into account response spectral shapes in selecting and scaling ground motion records. Subjected to ground motions corresponding to the return period of 2500 years, House 1 is expected to experience very limited extent of damage; Houses 2 and 3 may be disturbed by minor damage; whereas House 4 may suffer from major damage occasionally. Finally, we develop statistical models of the maximum inter‐story drift ratio conditioned on a seismic intensity level for wood‐frame houses, which is useful for seismic vulnerability assessment. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

非一致性水文频率分析的研究进展   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

梁忠民  胡义明  王军 《水科学进展》2011,22(6):864-871

水文频率分析计算需满足独立随机同分布假设,其中同分布是指水文样本在过去、现在和未来均服从同一总体分布,即样本应具有一致性。然而,由于气候变化及人类活动的影响,使得一致性的假设受到挑战,因此变化环境下传统频率计算方法获得的设计结果,其可靠性受到质疑。为此,探索适应非一致性极值系列的频率分析方法已显得非常重要。总结介绍国内外关于非一致性水文频率分析的一些代表性研究成果,主要集中在以下两方面:一是基于还原/还现途径;二是基于非一致性极值系列直接进行水文频率分析途径。最后对进一步值得研究的问题进行了展望。  相似文献   

Using the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Model to Understand the Different Responses of Three Woody Plants to Land Use in China     

SUN Guodong  MU Mu 《大气科学进展》2013,30(2):515-524

In this study, the approach of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to initial perturbation (CNOP-I) was employed to investigate the maximum variations in plant amount for three main woody plants (a temperate broadleaved evergreen, a temperate broadleaved summergreen, and a boreal needleleaved evergreen) in China. The investigation was conducted within a certain range of land use intensity using a state-of-the-art Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ DGVM). CNOP-I represents a class of deforestation and can be considered a type of land use with respect to the initial perturbation. When deforestation denoted by the CNOP-I has the same intensity for all three plants, the variation in plant amount of the boreal needleleaved evergreen in northern China is greater than the variation in plant amount of both the temperate broadleaved evergreen and temperate broadleaved summergreen in southern China. As deforestation intensity increases, the plant amount variation in the three woody plant functional types carbon changes, in a nonlinear fashion. The impact of land use on plant functional types is minor because the interaction between climate condition and land use is not considered in the LPJ model. Finally, the different impacts of deforestation on net primary production of the three plant functional types were analyzed by modeling gross primary production and autotrophic respiration. Our results suggest that the CNOP-I approach is a useful tool for exploring the nonlinear and different responses of terrestrial ecosystems to land use.  相似文献   

Testing and Modelling the Volatility Change in ENSO     

R. Modarres  T. B. M. J. Ouarda 《大气与海洋》2013,51(5):561-570

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Gaussian approximations to conditional distributions for multi-Gaussian processes     

Michael Stein 《Mathematical Geology》1987,19(5):387-405

Suppose a multi-Gaussian process is observed at some set of sites, and we wish to obtain the conditional block grade distribution given some observations. We show that this conditional distribution is approximately Gaussian under certain conditions. In particular, given a single observation from a continuous multi-Gaussian process, the conditional distribution under a small change of support is approximately Gaussian unless, roughly speaking, the observed process is twice differentiable and the observation site is at the center of mass of the support region. A Gaussian approximation for the conditional prediction error of the total ore in a fixed region is considered also, although an example demonstrates that a naive analysis can give incorrect limiting conditional means.  相似文献