基于偏最小二乘回归的区域换式风速预报订正技术研究     

杨程  姜瑜君  余贞寿  姜文东  康丽莉  王丽吉 《气象》2019,(5):676-684

利用偏最小二乘回归技术,将预报产品作为自变量,相应的自动气象站观测资料作为因变量,对2013-2016年冬季浙江省中尺度区域模式预报近地面风速进行订正和评估。所选956站中多数站点风速订正后有所改善,通过定量分析可知浙江西部地区整体改善效果最好,其中效果明显站点占91.7%;中部地区改善效果明显站点占86.5%;东部沿海地区改善效果略差,明显改善的站点占67%。各地级市整体表现均不错,除舟山地区为49.9%外,其他地区风速改善比例均超过50%。选取2017年1月20日浙江东北地区沿海大风过程分析发现订正后的风速与观测风速更为接近,在定海大岛站点(靠里)中表现尤为明显,订正后的结果具有显著参考价值。  相似文献   

CWRF模式在中国夏季极端降水模拟的误差订正          下载免费PDF全文

董晓云  余锦华  梁信忠  马圆 《应用气象学报》2019,30(2):223-232

利用1980—2015年6—8月我国逐日降水观测数据评估CWRF模式（Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model）多种参数化方案对我国夏季日降水的模拟能力,并考察累积概率变换偏差订正法（CDFt）的订正效果。通过将广义帕累托分布（GPD）引入到偏差订正模型中,提出针对极端降水的累积概率变换偏差订正法（XCDFt）,检验和评估其对极端降水订正的适用性。结果显示:CWRF模式微物理过程选用Morrison-aerosol参数化方案组合对我国降水场的模拟较好,CDFt订正效果良好;XCDFt偏差订正模型能够较好地提取模式建模与验证时期变化信号,订正后相比订正前与观测极端降水的概率分布更为接近;经过XCDFt订正后华南、华中和华北地区20年一遇的极端降水重现水平较模拟值更接近观测值,可为CWRF模式提高极端降水的业务预测水平提供参考。  相似文献   

基于最优概率的中期延伸期过程累计降水量分级订正预报     

牛若芸 《热带气象学报》2019,35(6):721-731

采用ECMWF集合预报降水量资料和中国降水量观测资料,研发了基于最优概率的过程累计降水量分级订正预报(OPPF)技术,并在遵循总体技术思路的基础上设计出三种不同的OPPF计算方案(OPPF1、OPPF2、OPPF3),继而选用2015—2017年汛期(5—9月)中国91次区域性强降水过程进行回报试验和预报效果对比评估,结果表明:(1)在中期延伸期预报时效(96~360小时),对强降水和有无降水的预报效果,三种OPPF均明显优于集合平均(EMPF)和控制预报(CTPF);对中等以上或较强以上强度降水的预报效果,OPPF1和OPPF3明显优于CTPF、与EMPF基本接近。(2)三种OPPF相比,OPPF3的预报效果较OPPF1总体略胜一筹,两者均好于OPPF2。(3)预报效果存在明显的地域差异,南方地区强降水预报的TS评分明显大于北方地区,且OPPF3预报效果明显优于EMPF;在96~240小时预报时效,东北地区东部OPPF3强降水的预报效果也明显好于EMPF。   相似文献   

Static bay beach concept for scientists and engineers: A review     

John R.-C. Hsu  M.-J. Yu  F.-C. Lee  Lindino Benedet 《Coastal Engineering》2010

Headland-bay beach (HBB) is one of the most prominent physiographic features on the oceanic margin of many countries in the world. Under the influence of a predominant swell, its curved periphery in natural environment may reach static equilibrium and remains stable without sediment supply from updrift and/or a riverain source within its own embayment. Coastal scientists and engineers have attempted to develop mathematical expressions to quantify this ideal bay shape since the 1940s. As the scenario with depleting sediment supply has become a common reality on many parts of the world coastline in more recent time, some coastal engineers have advocated a rational approach to mimicking the static bay shape found in nature in order to mitigate beach erosion as well as for coastal management. Nowadays, many useful applications have emerged since the publication of the parabolic bay shape equation (PBSE) developed for static equilibrium planform (SEP) in late 1980s. The advance in modern computer technologies and international collaboration has further facilitated the exchange of knowledge and applications of this static bay beach concept (SBBC).  相似文献   

中国天竺鲷属鱼类的矢耳石形态特征     

叶振江  张弛  王英俊  李震华 《海洋学报(英文版)》2010,29(5):87-92

利用采自我国近海的105尾标本,分析了细条天竺鲷、宽条天竺鲷、黑鳃天竺鲷、黑边天竺鲷、垂带天竺鲷、四线天竺鲷、半线天竺鲷、斑鳍天竺鲷等8种天竺鲷属鱼类的矢耳石形态特征。8种鱼类矢耳石前部均较尖,后部略圆钝,背部呈折线状,腹部呈圆弧形,背部中央有缺刻,听沟宽阔;8种鱼耳石长宽比的比值为1.35~1.63,矩形趋近率为0.67~0.77,充实度为14.77~24.99。以上述三种形态学参数为基础进行聚类分析,可将8种鱼类分为3组:细条天竺鲷、宽条天竺鲷、黑边天竺鲷、黑鳃天竺鲷为一组;垂带天竺鲷、四线天竺鲷、半线天竺鲷为一组;斑鳍天竺鲷为一组。耳石听沟边缘走向、宽度以及耳石外部边缘光滑度等轮廓特征在8种天竺鲷属鱼类间呈显著的种间差异。以这些形态特征为基础,编制了8种天竺鲷属鱼类的检索表,检索表表现的种间分类关系特征与聚类分析结果基本一致。  相似文献   

唐山震区深反射剖面分析   总被引：14，自引：2，他引：14       下载免费PDF全文

陆涵行  曾融生  郭建明  林中洋 《地球物理学报》1988,31(1):27-36

为了进一步研究唐山地区深部地壳构造与唐山大地震孕育及发生的关系,国家地震局地球物理研究所在石油部物探局的协助下,于1985年1月在唐山震区完成了64km长的深反射剖面野外观测,获得了高分辨率的整个地壳结构的详细资料。分析结果表明,唐山震区内深度500m以上的沉积层十分破碎;结晶基底为前震旦纪地层,埋深2-7km不等,覆盖地层倾斜,且断层发育,其中陡河断裂为正断层,延深至6-7km,推断该断层为1976年唐山发震的重要构造之一。测线上大约21km深处普遍存在一反射层;莫霍面深度在31-32km左右,与该地区折射剖面得到的结果相当一致。  相似文献   

Settling-velocity distributions and sorting processes on a longitudinal dune: A case study     

Daniel Hartmann  Christian Christiansen 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1988,13(7):649-656

The processes acting on a longitudinal dune are inferred from the response in the area size-sorting characteristics of the sediment of the active layer. The sediment size distributions are determined by settling and are best described by a log-hyperbolic model which provides the most information on size-sorting processes. Size-sorting characteristics are markedly different across the low round-crested part of the dune from cross-sections of the high more sharp-crested part. This results in changes in textural parameters along the lee-side consistent with changes in the lee-side separation vortex. This is the first time that the effect of wind speed up on the lee-side is observed to be reflected in the sediment; it can only be detected with the very sensitive log-hyperbolic parameters.  相似文献   

A garnet population in Yellowknife schist, Canada   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

R. KRETZ 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》1993,11(1):101-120

Abstract Data are presented on a garnet population in a specimen of garnet-biotite-plagioclase-quartz schist from the cordierite zone of an Archaean thermal dome in the Southern Slave Province of the Canadian Shield. Garnet crystals are bounded by planar dodecahedral faces and by trapezohedral faces which on the 10-μm scale are corrugated. Crystal distribution, as revealed by dissection of a small cubic volume of rock, is random. The size distribution is normal, with a mean diameter of 0.81 mm and a standard deviation of 0.32 mm. In the largest crystal of the population (mean radius 0.83 mm), [Mn] = 100 Mn/(Fe + Mg + Mn + Ca) decreases from 14.5 at the centre to 7.5 and then increases in the outer margin to 8.5; [Fe] increases continuously from 67 at the centre to 77 at the surface; [Mg] increases from 12.5 to 13.5 and then falls sharply to 11; [Ca] remains unchanged at 4.0 and then drops to 3.3. Progressively smaller crystals have progressively lower [Mn] and higher [Fe] concentrations at their centres, while all crystals have the same margin composition. Growth vectors extending from given concentration contours to crystal surfaces are of equal length regardless of the size of the crystal in which the vector is located. A garnet-forming model is presented in which reaction was initiated by a rise in temperature. Nucleation sites were randomly selected. The nucleation rate increased with time and then declined. Crystal faces advanced at a constant linear rate, which implies an increase in volume proportional to surface area. Initially, the composition of garnet deposited on crystal surfaces was determined by van Laar equations of equilibrium, which demanded the withdrawal of Mn and Fe from within chlorite crystals. This transfer reaction was then accompanied by an ion exchange reaction which moved Mn and Fe to garnet surfaces from biotite, in exchange for Mg. The exchange reaction provides an explanation for the high overall concentration of Mn and Fe in garnet and for the observed Mn and Mg reversals in the margins of crystals. The increase of garnet volume in the garnet population is found to be parabolic, i.e. Vαα⁵.  相似文献   

Shape analysis and multispectral classification in geological remote sensing     

Andrea G. Fabbri  Freek D. van der Meer  Carlos R. Valenzuela  Cornelius A. Kushigbor 《Mathematical Geology》1993,25(7):773-793

This paper discusses the usage of mathematical morphology in image processing of remotely-sensed data for geologic interpretation. Particular attention is given to noise-reducing transformations of spectral bands before and after different methods of classification, and to the usage of textural context. The development of a viable processing strategy requires a multidisciplinary approach and expert knowledge in different areas: (a) geology, geomorphology, and vegetation in a study area, (b) properties of the sensor for imagery photointerpretation, (c) spectral/spatial properties of the digital data within an integrated dataset (remote sensing and ancillary data), and (d) data-processing tools including mathematical morphology theory. Examples of geometric characterization of Canadian LANDSAT scenes are described in which shape measurements are obtained using a PC-based hybrid image-processing and geographic information system, termed ILWIS, which was developed at ITC, in the Netherlands. Classes from supervised and unsupervised classification are compared to guide in geological mapping. Classes over individual occurrences of broad vegetation-landform units are studied to aid in environmental mapping. Field knowledge is the context necessary to construct expert procedures to drive sequences of data-processing steps toward a target result such as optimal classification, enhancement, or feature extraction. The interaction between expert rules and the image-processing steps can be based on synthetic measurements of shape to quantize the information either spatially or spectrally. Many useful geometrical transformations of spatially-distributed data are extensions or generalizations of spatial analysis functions typical of geographic information systems.  相似文献   

热流测量中垂向地下水运动干扰的校正方法   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

胡圣标  熊亮萍 《地质科学》1994,29(1):85-92

本文提出了一种地表热流测量中垂向地下水干扰的校正方法。并以江西萍乡和福建安溪的二个钻孔为例,说明了热流校正的具体过程。由于地下水对流传热的影响,垂向地下水渗透层内温度和热流随深度均呈指数分布。通过对钻孔测温数据的一维垂向Peclet数分析,可以确定渗透层内传导和对流热流分量以及热流的构成,从而得到未受地下水对流干扰的区域背景热流。这一方法不仅适用于渗透率结构均一的介质,也可用于水平层状介质。  相似文献