山西地下水氡中短期异常识别标志及预报方法研究     

范雪芳  张淑亮  李俊拴 《山西地震》2002,(1):20-22,32

采用“九五”地震科技攻关地下水化学及 EIS2 0 0 0提供的多种数据处理和异常识别方法 ,对山西省地下水氡观测资料进行了较详细的处理 ,筛选出较好的数据处理方法和异常标志。结果表明 ,除常规的数学处理方法外 ,用水氡的基值变化率和滑动变化率提取异常效果较好 ,如果基值变化率 R0 ≥ 0 .0 6 ,持续时间大于等于 12个月 ,滑动变化率 R≥ 0 .0 5 ,持续时间大于等于 12个月 ,则视为异常  相似文献   

流域地理景观的GIS数据三维可视化   总被引：17，自引：1，他引：16  

袁艳斌  张勇传  王乘  袁晓辉 《地球科学进展》2002,17(4):497-501

应用以"GIS"为核心的空间信息技术,是开展"数字流域"工程建设自然和最佳的选择。结合"清江流域水文水情与洪水演进仿真系统"的具体研制,分析流域地理数据特点及传统GIS在"数字流域"建设中的优缺点,在应用传统GIS二维方式展示形式管理和预处理先期各类基础流域地理空间数据及其相应属性数据的基础上,为满足仿真系统系列三维可视化要求,建立面向流域空间实体对象的数据模型,定义流域地理空间对象数据结构,将流域地理常规的GIS数据以三维形式展示,在实际的系统开发过程中,取得较好的三维可视化效果,并可满足"数字清江"建设各阶段综合处理、分析、评价、决策以及可视化等方面的需求。  相似文献   

La prévision du climat : de l'échelle saisonnière à l'échelle décennale     

Jean-Claude Andr  Jean-Yves Caneill  Michel Dqu  Philippe Rogel  Laurent Terray  Yves Tourre 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2002,334(16):1115

The atmosphere and the ocean are subject to many dynamical instabilities, which limit the time during which their behaviour can be deterministically forecasted. At longer timescales, the atmosphere can be predicted at best using statistical methods, as a response to external forcing linked to sea- and land-surface anomalies. Climate being defined as the mean of atmospheric states, it appears that it can be predicted up to a few months in advance, which is the characteristic time of the so-called slow components of the climate system. Forecasting can sometimes be extended to longer time ranges, especially when the coupled ocean–atmosphere system exhibits internal variability modes, with characteristic times of a few years. Seasonal climate forecasting is most often based upon Monte-Carlo simulations, where the various realisations correspond to slightly different initial conditions. The present sate-of-the-art in Europe (ECMWF) and/or in the USA (IRI) allows to forecast such major phenomena, as El Niño, up to six months in advance. Finally, some parameters may exhibit predictability at still longer time-ranges (inter-annual to decadal), but only for certain regions. The example of electricity production is used to underline the potentially large economical benefit of seasonal climate forecasting. To cite this article: J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.

Résumé

L'atmosphère et l'océan sont le siège d'instabilités dynamiques, qui limitent la durée pendant laquelle il est possible d'en prévoir l'évolution de façon déterministe. Au-delà, l'atmosphère n'est plus prévisible, au mieux, que de façon statistique, en fonction du forçage externe qu'exerce(nt) sur elle l'océan et/ou la surface des continents. Le climat (au sens d'une moyenne des états atmosphériques) se révèle ainsi prévisible jusqu'à des échéances temporelles de quelques mois, échelle de temps caractéristique des composantes dites « lentes » du système climatique. La prévision peut s'étendre à des échéances parfois plus longues, dans le cas où le système couplé océan–atmosphère posséderait des modes de variabilité temporelle de périodes caractéristiques de quelques années. La prévision climatique saisonnière est très souvent construite à partir de simulations de type Monte-Carlo, avec des ensembles de réalisations utilisant des conditions initiales légèrement différentes. Dans l'état actuel de ces prévisions, qu'elles soient réalisées en Europe (CEPMMT) ou aux États-Unis (IRI), il est possible de prévoir environ six mois à l'avance un certain nombre de phénomènes climatiques, en particulier ceux liés aux épisodes dits « El Niño », pour lesquels l'amplitude des variations est suffisamment importante. Il existe, par ailleurs, une prévisibilité à encore plus longue échéance (inter-annuelle à décennale), mais seulement pour certains paramètres et certaines régions. L'exemple de la production d'électricité montre l'importance économique potentielle très grande de la prévision climatique saisonnière. Pour citer cet article : J.-C. André et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1115–1127.  相似文献   

地质灾害的非线性数据处理与建模技术   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

许强  黄润秋 《山地学报》2000,18(Z1):123-127

本文简略地介绍了几种地质灾害数据处理与建模的非线性方法,主要包括GMDH自组织建模技术、神经网络方法。GMDH是一种高阶非线性回归建模方法,它是以简单的二元二次回归方程为基础,通过"代复一代"的"生产"过程,客观、自动地求得实际资料的非线性模型。而神经网络则是用工程技术手段模拟生物神经网络的结构特征和功能特征的一类人工系统。与常规统计方法相比,神经网络最突出的优点为它是通过对网络的学习和训练,来掌握变量之间的非线性关系。因此,其处理复杂问题的能力更强大。实例检验效果表明,这些非线性数据处理与建模技术考虑了地质灾害问题的非线性特性,其比基于常规统计理论的数据处理方法的精度要高得多。  相似文献   

Research on the security of national geospatial data clearinghouse based on ASP     

ZHANG Li GONG Jianya ZHU QingZHANG Li  Ph.D.Candidate  National Laboratory for Information Engineering in Surveying  Mapping  Remote Sensing  WTUSM  Luoyu Road  Wuhan  China 《地球空间信息科学学报》2000,3(3):47-51

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现代冲积河流的河型空间转化模式探讨   总被引：11，自引：2，他引：9  

倪晋仁  王随继  王光谦 《沉积学报》2000,18(1):1-6

论述了现代冲积河流系统中常见河型的自然分布及转化特征,归纳了河型从上游向下游发生空间转化的 5种主要模式。这些河型转化模式发生的相对频率是不同的,其中从辫状河流向曲流河流转化的发生频率最大。文中通过具体实例总结了这些转化模式分别发生时的主要影响因素。  相似文献   

A modified ISBA surface scheme for modeling the hydrology of Athabasca River Basin with GCM-scale data     

Ernst Kerkhoven  Thian Yew Gan 《Advances in water resources》2006

A soil–vegetation–atmosphere transfer model (SVAT), interactions between the soil–biosphere–atmosphere (ISBA) of Météo France, is modified and applied to the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) to model its water and energy fluxes. Two meteorological datasets are used: the archived forecasts from the Meteorological Survey of Canada’s Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM) and the European Centre for Mid-range Weather Forecasts global re-analysis (ERA-40), representing spatial scales typical of a weather forecasting model and a global circulation model (GCM), respectively. The original treatment of soil moisture and rainfall in ISBA (OISBA) is modified to statistically account for sub-grid heterogeneity of soil moisture and rainfall to produce new, highly non-linear formulations for surface and sub-surface runoff (MISBA). These new formulations can be readily applied to most existing SVATs. Stand alone mode simulations using the GEM data demonstrate that MISBA significantly improves streamflow predictions despite requiring two fewer parameters than OISBA. Simulations using the ERA-40 data show that it is possible to reproduce the annual variation in monthly, mean annual, and annual minimum flows at GCM scales without using downscaling techniques. Finally, simulations using a simple downscaling scheme show that the better performance of higher resolution datasets can be primarily attributed to improved representation of local variation of land cover, topography, and climate.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal variations in bank erosion on sand‐bed streams in the seasonally wet tropics of northern Australia     

M. J. Saynor  Wayne D. Erskine 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2006,31(9):1080-1099

Bank erosion rates and processes across a range of spatial scales are poorly understood in most environments, especially in the seasonally wet tropics of northern Australia where sediment yields are among global minima. A total of 177 erosion pins was installed at 45 sites on four sand‐bed streams (Tributaries North and Central, East Tributary and Ngarradj) in the Ngarradj catchment in the Alligator Rivers Region. Bank erosion was measured for up to 3·5 years (start of 1998/99 wet season to end of 2001/02 wet season) at three spatial scales, namely a discontinuous gully (0·6 km²) that was initiated by erosion of a grass swale between 1975 and 1981, a small continuous channel (2·5 km²) on an alluvial fan that was formed by incision of a formerly discontinuous channel between 1964 and 1978, and three medium‐sized, continuous channels (8·5–43·6 km²) with riparian vegetation. The bank erosion measurements during a period of average to above‐average rainfall established that substantial bank erosion occurred during the wet season on the two smaller channels by rapid lateral migration (Tributary Central) and by erosion of gully sidewalls due to a combination of within‐gully flows and overland flow plunging over the sidewalls (Tributary North). Minor bank erosion also occurred during the dry season by faunal activity, by desiccation and loss of cohesion of the sandy bank sediments and by dry flow processes. The larger channels with riparian vegetation (East Tributary and Ngarradj) did not generate significant amounts of sediment by bank erosion. Deposition (i.e. negative pin values) was locally significant at all scales. Bank profile form and channel planform exert a strong control on erosion rates during the wet season but not during the dry season. Copyright © 2006 Commonwealth Government of Australia.  相似文献   

A conceptual model of depositional,rather than erosional,tidal channel development in the rapidly prograding Skagit River Delta (Washington,USA)     

W. Gregory Hood 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2006,31(14):1824-1838

The origin and growth of blind tidal channels is generally considered to be an erosional process. This paper describes a contrasting depositional model for blind tidal channel origin and development in the Skagit River delta, Washington, USA. Chronological sequences of historical maps and photos spanning the last century show that as sediments accumulated at the river mouth, vegetation colonization created marsh islands that splintered the river into distributaries. The marsh islands coalesced when intervening distributary channels gradually narrowed and finally closed at the upstream end to form a blind tidal channel, or at mid‐length to form two blind tidal channels. Channel closure was probably often mediated through gradient reduction associated with marsh progradation and channel lengthening, coupled with large woody debris blockages. Blind tidal channel evolution from distributaries was common in the Skagit marshes from 1889 to the present, and it can account for the origin of very small modern blind tidal channels. The smallest observed distributary‐derived modern blind tidal channels have mean widths of 0·3 m, at the resolution limit of the modern orthophotographs. While channel initiation and persistence are similar processes in erosional systems, they are different processes in this depositional model. Once a channel is obstructed and isolated from distributary flow, only tidal flow remains and channel persistence becomes a function of tidal prism and tidal or wind/wave erosion. In rapidly prograding systems like the Skagit, blind tidal channel networks are probably inherited from the antecedent distributary network. Examination of large‐scale channel network geometry of such systems should therefore consider distributaries and blind tidal channels part of a common channel network and not entirely distinct elements of the system. Finally, managers of tidal habitat restoration projects generally assume an erosional model of tidal channel development. However, under circumstances conducive to progradation, depositional channel development may prevail instead. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Bed waves at the basin scale: implications for river management and restoration     

L. Allan James 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2006,31(13):1692-1706

An extensive literature about fluvial sediment waves, slugs or pulses has emerged in the past 20 years. The concept has been useful in many respects, but has been applied to diverse phenomena using a variety of definitions. Moreover, inferred linkages between channel‐bed changes and sediment loads are often not justifiable. This paper reviews concepts of large fluvial sediment waves at scales extending to several tens of kilometres. It points out constraints on the inferences that can be made about sediment loads based on changes in channel‐bed elevation at this scale where channel sediment interacts with storage in floodplain and terrace deposits. The type area of G. K. Gilbert's initial sediment‐wave concept is re‐examined to show that neither wave translation nor dispersion occurred in the simple manner commonly assumed. Channel aggradation and return to graded conditions provide an alternative theory explaining Gilbert's observed bed‐elevation changes. Recognizing the evidence and implications of the former passage of a large‐scale bed wave is essential to the accurate diagnosis of catchment conditions and the adoption of appropriate river restoration goals or methods. Sediment loads, water quality, channel morphologic stability and aquatic ecosystems often reflect changes in sediment storage long after the channel bed has returned to grade. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献