BDS卫星失效对区域定位精度的影响评估     

徐炜  徐梅  严超  王涛 《大地测量与地球动力学》2018,38(11):1133-1136

基于STK软件实现了2016-09 BDS系统星座结构的仿真，并选取可见卫星数、DOP值、系统可用性作为评估BDS卫星星座设计结构的指标，分析单颗与全部倾斜轨道卫星（IGSO）、地球静止轨道卫星（GEO）失效后对我国大陆地区BDS系统可用性的影响。结果表明，IGSO4卫星与GEO5卫星失效后对BDS在区域的定位性能影响较大，失效后的GDOP值分别为1.98、2.16。取BDS卫星正常运行时区域平均GDOP最大值(S=2.60)作为系统可用性阈值时，系统可用性分别降低了1.79%、32.63%；阈值取2S(5.20)、3S(7.80)、4S(10.40)、5S(13.00)时，系统可用性均可达100.00%。GEO整体失效后BDS系统在高精度定位中仍部分可用，而IGSO整体失效后BDS系统可用性受到大幅度限制。因此，增加在轨备份卫星时需重点考虑GEO5、IGSO4，并适当增加IGSO卫星的数目。  相似文献   

A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge          下载免费PDF全文

Yan Liu  Yonghong Hao  Yonghui Fan  Tongke Wang  Xueli Huo  Youcun Liu  Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2014,28(20):5251-5258

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

北部湾典型海岛生态系统服务价值空间异质性对比研究     

田义超  黄远林  张强  陶进  张亚丽  黄鹄  梁铭忠  周国清 《海洋科学》2019,43(2):60-68

基于北部湾海域典型海岛高分1号数据,借助于CART决策树方法,获取了广西北部湾两个典型海岛的景观格局数据,并采用生态系统服务价值计量模型、空间自相关模型及地统计学中的变异函数模型对其生态系统服务价值进行了空间异质性分析。结果表明:团和岛单位面积生态系统服务价值是七星岛的1.08倍,但其变异系数低于七星岛;七星岛由于其地质背景为泥沙岛,景观格局受到人类活动以及自然环境的强烈干扰,趋向于复杂化和破碎化;而团和岛由于所处的外部环境以及自身的地质特征,景观格局呈现出整体斑块化分布状态;团和岛的景观格局主要受到结构性因素的控制,而七星岛则以随机性因素控制为主,选用变程和Moran’s指数来表征其复杂化和破碎化,来决定其优先开发时序,可对前者进行适当开发,而对后者适当进行生态保护;对受到结构性因素影响的岛屿在进行开发时,时序的识别选用变程和Moran’s指数来表征,若变程和Moran’s指数越小,说明海岛整体的景观分布格局趋向于复杂化和破碎化,反之生态系统较好,可进行优先开发。同时本文构建了北部湾海岛生态系统异质性评估与自然资源管理框架,并提出了海岛管理的建议与对策。  相似文献   

近20a来巢湖流域生态服务价值空间分异机制的地理探测   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

黄木易  方斌  岳文泽  冯少茹 《地理研究》2019,38(11):2790-2803

生态系统服务功能是生态系统和生态过程形成和维持的自然环境条件及作用。基于1995—2017年遥感分类数据,对研究区按3 km×3 km幅度网格化2019个样方,利用空间统计和缓冲区等方法进行巢湖流域生态服务价值时空演变特征分析,应用地理探测器工具揭示生态服务价值空间分异的主导因子及因子交互作用机制,并提出生态服务价值空间优化策略。结果表明：① 巢湖流域生态服务价值量由1995年的303.17亿元分别下降为2005年300.95亿元和2017年287.70亿元,近20a来减少约5.11%,年均下降率0.23%,其中合肥市区、巢湖南部和东部地区降速明显;② 生态服务价值等级空间转移分析表明,巢湖流域低级别生态服务价值区域在扩展,中等及高级别区域在缩小。以巢湖为核心的缓冲区分析表明,20a来缓冲区核心环带内生态服务价值量下降18.55%,巢湖流域水环境保护核心区的生态系统功能变化值得关注;③ 地理探测分析表明,人为影响综合指数是生态服务价值空间分异的主导因子;地形、气象因素是重要影响因子;人为影响指数因子、自然因子及社会经济因子的交互协同增强效应共同影响了流域生态服务价值在空间上的分异效果。研究结果在一定程度上可为巢湖流域生态系统调控与优化提供理论依据。  相似文献   

Effect of wave nonlinearity on fatigue damage and extreme responses of a semi-submersible floating wind turbine     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

Floating wind turbine has been the highlight in offshore wind industry lately. There has been great effort on developing highly sophisticated numerical model to better understand its hydrodynamic behaviour. A engineering-practical method to study the nonlinear wave effects on floating wind turbine has been recently developed. Based on the method established, the focus of this paper is to quantify the wave nonlinearity effect due to nonlinear wave kinematics by comparing the structural responses of floating wind turbine when exposed to irregular linear Airy wave and fully nonlinear wave. Critical responses and fatigue damage are studied in operational conditions and short-term extreme values are predicted in extreme conditions respectively. In the operational condition, wind effects are dominating the mean value and standard deviation of most responses except floater heave motion. The fatigue damage at the tower base is dominated by wind effects. The fatigue damage for the mooring line is more influenced by wind effects for conditions with small wave and wave effects for conditions with large wave. The wave nonlinearity effect becomes significant for surge and mooring line tension for large waves while floater heave, pitch motion, tower base bending moment and pontoon axial force are less sensitive to the nonlinear wave effect. In the extreme condition, linear wave theory underestimates wave elevation, floater surge motion and mooring line tension compared with fully nonlinear wave theory while quite close results are predicted for other responses.  相似文献   

A comparison of the main methods for estimating probabilities of extreme still water levels     

Ivan D. Haigh  Robert Nicholls  Neil Wells 《Coastal Engineering》2010

Sea-level return periods are estimated at 18 sites around the English Channel using: (i) the annual maxima method; (ii) the r-largest method; (iii) the joint probability method; and (iv) the revised joint probability method. Tests are undertaken to determine how sensitive these four methods are to three factors which may significantly influence the results; (a) the treatment of the long-term trends in extreme sea level; (b) the relative magnitudes of the tidal and non-tidal components of sea level; and (c) the frequency, length and completeness of the available data. Results show that unless sea-level records with lengths of at least 50 years are used, the way in which the long-term trends is handled in the different methods can lead to significant differences in the estimated return levels. The direct methods (i.e. methods i and ii) underestimate the long (> 20 years) period return levels when the astronomical tidal variations of sea level (relative to a mean of zero) are about twice that of the non-tidal variations. The performance of each of the four methods is assessed using prediction errors (the difference between the return periods of the observed maximum level at each site and the corresponding data range). Finally, return periods, estimated using the four methods, are compared with estimates from the spatial revised joint probability method along the UK south coast and are found to be significantly larger at most sites along this coast, due to the comparatively short records originally used to calibrate the model in this area. The revised joint probability method is found to have the lowest prediction errors at most sites analysed and this method is recommended for application wherever possible. However, no method can compensate for poor data.  相似文献   

青海省祁漫塔格地区1∶5万水系沉积物测量衬值异常圈定实例     

赵娟 《地质与勘探》2016,52(3):518-523

青海省祁漫塔格地区位于柴达木盆地西南缘,是青海省重要的铁多金属成矿基地之一。利用88442个野外采样点1∶5万水系沉积物测量数据,采用Geo Expl软件圈定了该地区的衬值异常。衬值是指各元素0.5 km×0.5 km网格化数据与其园域搜索半径5km、移动步长0.5km移动平均值的比值。选用自定义累频"90、95、98、100"确定了异常的外、中、内带。通过常规方法和衬值圈定的异常的对比,表明衬值异常能够削弱不同地质背景差异,使异常形态更为规整,浓集中心更为明显,并且可能发现新异常。  相似文献   

时变参数灰色模型背景值重构及实现     

周万春  周强波  黄九松  刘鸿剑 《测绘科学》2016,41(6):173-178

针对时变参数灰色模型PGM(1,1)的背景值重构收敛速度及稳定性问题,该文运用积分的方法综合序列在Δt内不同变化趋势,导出背景值模型的准确表达式。实现了反映序列对新老信息偏爱程度的最优权值介于(0,1)内,且非不能越过某一阈值;给出了背景值重构模型最优解准确求取的具体算法步骤。基于MATLAB语言的实验结果表明:改进模型预测精度高,易于实现;所研究的带权灰色模型GM(1,n)背景值模型的重构及计算方法验证了PGM(1,1)模型重构及计算实现方法的有效性和实用性。  相似文献   

Remote sensing and information value (IV) model for regional mapping of fluvial channels and topographic wetness in the Saudi Arabia     

Mohamed Mostafa Mohamed 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2016,53(4):520-541

This study aims to map regions of near surface fluvial channels, mega-basins and topographic wetness in Saudi Arabia using remote sensing data and an information value (IV) model, which is a modified approach of weight of evidence. We used the new version of the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) to delineate the fluvial channels, mega-basin, and slope. These hydrological parameters were used to index the topographic wetness of each mega-basin in the region based on IV in a Geographic Information System. We validated our method using the Space Imaging Radar-C and Landsat 8 images and compared the textural features (fluvial channels) evident from SRTM digital elevation model and to determine whether these patterns were different. Our results revealed that the region is drained by nine tributaries and that the Err Rub Al Khali and Sahba mega-basins have the highest value of the IV and topographic wetness values; the Arran and coastal mega-basins have the lowest value of the IV and topographic wetness values. An integrated approach is timely and economically effective and can be applied throughout the arid and semi-arid regions to help hydrologists and urban developers.  相似文献   

河元背地区绳索取心钻进泵压计算模型的建立与应用          下载免费PDF全文

康鑫  李生海  刘晓阳  王荣璟  段隆臣 《探矿工程》2016,43(2):28-31

泵压是反映金刚石绳索取心钻进时井内作业是否正常的重要参数。为了进一步研究泵压波动变化与实际钻进作业之间的关系,指导钻进工作的快速、安全开展,结合江西相山河元背地区CUSD2井实际泵压波动数据及相关钻进资料,建立了适用于本井的循环系统压力损失计算模型。对比分析模型计算的理论泵压与实际泵压的波动变化趋势,将模型应用于实际钻进,在此基础上预测后续地层的泵压波动区域范围,发现7 MPa的泵压安全值不再适用于后续地层钻进,调整设置泵压安全值为10 MPa,并利用邻井泵压波动数据进一步验证其可靠性。适当调整修正理论模型,使其可应用于河元背以及相山地区绳索取心钻进中,指导该地区钻探工作。  相似文献