New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data     

G. Grünthal  R. Wahlström 《Natural Hazards》2006,38(1-2):159-176

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.  相似文献   

The effects of hazard zone information on judgements about earthquake damage     

Michael Crozier  John McClure  Jessica Vercoe  Marc Wilson 《Area》2006,38(2):143-152

This study investigates the extent to which people's views on the causes and preventability of earthquake damage might be influenced by their degree of exposure to hazard as well as what information they have been given about the hazard. The results show that the provision of hazard zoning information influences judgements on preventability and causes of damage, but this effect depends on the degree of hazard faced by residents. In low hazard zones, information leads to the view that causes are manageable, whereas in high hazard zones information may induce a degree of fatalism. The use of public information in risk management needs to take into account the degree of risk faced by the recipients.  相似文献   

Basin-related effects on ground motion for earthquake scenarios in the Lower Rhine Embayment   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Michael Ewald  Heiner Igel  Klaus-Günter Hinzen  Frank Scherbaum 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,166(1):197-212

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GIS-based flood hazard mapping at different administrative scales: A case study in Gangetic West Bengal, India   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Joy Sanyal  X.X. Lu 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2006,27(2):207-220

This paper addresses the need for an efficient and cost-effective methodology for preparing flood hazard maps in data poor countries, particularly those under a monsoon regime where floods pose a recurrent danger. Taking Gangetic West Bengal, India, as an example and using available historical data from government agencies, the study compiled a regional map indicating hazard prone subregional areas for further detailed investigation, thereby isolating actual high risk localities. Using a GIS (Geographical Information System), a composite hazard index was devised incorporating variables of flood frequency, population density, transportation networks, access to potable water, and availability of high ground and maximum risk zones were mapped accordingly. A digital elevation model derived from high resolution imagery available in the public domain was used to calculate elevated areas suitable for temporary shelter during a flood. Selecting administrative units of analysis at the lowest possible scales – rural development blocks (regional) and revenue villages (subregional) – also ensures that hazard mapping is prepared in line with the existing rural planning and administrative authorities responsible for remedial intervention.  相似文献   

Construction Problems on the Karstified Limestone Tuffs of Condeixa, Central Portugal: A Case Study     

M. Quinta Ferreira  J. L. Velho 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2006,24(1):101-116

During the excavations for the foundations of a three storey building on the limestone tuffs of Condeixa, Central Portugal, a large dissolution fissure and smaller dissolution voids were found. Since the area has never been the subject of engineering geology investigation, it was decided to evaluate the risk associated with the construction of the building. These limestone tuffs were formed in a continental environment by the precipitation of calcite carried by the water coming from the large limestone body in the east. The precipitated calcite mixed with the terrigenous materials and around trunks and leaves of plants, originating a very heterogeneous and porous ground, which is characteristic of limestone tuffs. The study started with a detailed geological survey followed by a large number of destructive drillings, located essentially under the pad foundations. The results revealed several karstic cavities with serious problems for the building foundations and the structure, and many smaller dissolution cavities, often filled with clayey soils. The ground treatment solutions used included, dental cleaning, filling with concrete or granular material the dissolution structures accessible at the level of the foundation, reinforcement of the footing and the structure of the building and adding a continuous foundation beam to hold the foundations together. The cost of the engineering geology study, site investigation, ground treatment, and the reinforcement of the foundation and building, increased the total construction cost from 2%, at the design stage, to 4.8%.  相似文献   

土壤天然热释光测量在寻找滑坡体边界中的应用研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

张丽娇  叶树林  刘庆成 《工程地质学报》2006,14(6):815-818

土壤天然热释光测量方法是一种累积型测氡方法。由于累积测氡时间长,其灵敏度和异常的重现性远比一般累积测氡及其子体方法好,因此,在地质领域得到了广泛的应用。在寻找滑坡体边界的应用中,取得的测量效果明显,表明该方法经济有效。  相似文献   

滑坡稳定性分析与安全系数取值研究   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

徐青  陈士军  陈胜宏 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2006,17(3):58-62

在地质灾害中,滑坡灾害分布最广、发生频率最高、危害最大,是我国地质灾害防治的主要对象。滑坡研究的主要任务之一是稳定性分析。论文针对三板溪水电站进水口滑坡和水布垭水电站大岩淌滑坡,分别采用刚体极限平衡法、块体单元法、有限单元法对稳定安全系数和条间推力分布曲线进行分析和比较,研究各种方法的差异和计算精度,以及各种方法稳定安全系数的取值标准,希望为水利水电工程边坡设计规范有关有限单元法、块体单元法条目的编写和相应的允许安全系数取值标准的制定提供一定的参考。研究结果表明:①块体单元法计算的安全系数与刚体极限平衡法计算的安全系数可以采用相同的取值标准,而有限单元法计算的安全系数取值标准可适当降低;②块体单元法计算的条间水平推力、条间剪切力与刚体极限平衡法(尤其是Sarma法)计算的条间水平推力、条间剪切力非常相近,有限单元法计算的条间水平推力、条间剪切力较小;③分析方法、力学模型与参数取值应与安全系数取值标准相匹配。  相似文献   

西藏昌都镇地质灾害发育特征及防治对策   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

汤明高  许强  马和平  成民  杜先兴 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2006,17(4):11-16

昌都镇位于澜沧江上游“三河一江”地带(即昂曲、扎曲、色曲、澜沧江)。地质构造条件复杂,气候较恶劣,昼夜温差大,物理风化强烈,植被稀疏,地质灾害发育。该区是藏东的政治、经济、文化中心。随着地区的经济发展,其城镇建设与地质灾害之间的矛盾日益突出。调查研究显示昌都镇发育地质灾害33处,其中崩塌16处,占灾害点总数48.5%,主要发育于路堑边坡和河流下切侧蚀形成的自然边坡;滑坡13处,占灾害点总数的39.4%,且90%为土质滑坡,多与人类工程活动有关;泥石流4处,占灾害点总数的12.1%,以中小型为主。文章总结了昌都镇崩塌、滑坡和泥石流灾害的发育分布特征,地质灾害与地层岩性、空间位置和人类工程活动等之间的关系,以及对昌都城镇建设和发展的影响。结合调查分析提出了昌都镇地质灾害防治的总体策略———治灾、设防、治水、治坡、生态建设和加强环保意识。  相似文献   

地质单位财务管理咨询刍议   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

宋建新 《中国煤田地质》2006,18(3):75-77,82

地质单位对自身无力解决的重要财务管理问题应该寻求外部咨询机构的有效帮助，针对地质单位财务管理中存在的主要问题提出需要咨询课题，而咨询机构通过对地质单位的财务状况进行调查分析后，提出科学、合理有效的财务管理改善方案和指导实施方案。  相似文献   

洪山预测区煤层赋存的可能性分析     

尚洪田 《中国煤田地质》2006,18(4):25-26,52

分析了洪山预测区西部洪山岩体地质特征及其向外围扩散的范围和程度，研究了北掌勘查区和焦窑煤矿两邻区煤层受岩浆岩影响的程度，认为洪山岩体对预测区煤系及煤层赋存的影响较小，岩体外围仍有煤系赋存。为下一步找煤指明了方向。  相似文献