Novel evaluation metrics for sparse spatio-temporal point process hotspot predictions - a crime case study     

Monsuru Adepeju  Gabriel Rosser 《International journal of geographical information science》2016,30(11):2133-2154

Many physical and sociological processes are represented as discrete events in time and space. These spatio-temporal point processes are often sparse, meaning that they cannot be aggregated and treated with conventional regression models. Models based on the point process framework may be employed instead for prediction purposes. Evaluating the predictive performance of these models poses a unique challenge, as the same sparseness prevents the use of popular measures such as the root mean squared error. Statistical likelihood is a valid alternative, but this does not measure absolute performance and is therefore difficult for practitioners and researchers to interpret. Motivated by this limitation, we develop a practical toolkit of evaluation metrics for spatio-temporal point process predictions. The metrics are based around the concept of hotspots, which represent areas of high point density. In addition to measuring predictive accuracy, our evaluation toolkit considers broader aspects of predictive performance, including a characterisation of the spatial and temporal distributions of predicted hotspots and a comparison of the complementarity of different prediction methods. We demonstrate the application of our evaluation metrics using a case study of crime prediction, comparing four varied prediction methods using crime data from two different locations and multiple crime types. The results highlight a previously unseen interplay between predictive accuracy and spatio-temporal dispersion of predicted hotspots. The new evaluation framework may be applied to compare multiple prediction methods in a variety of scenarios, yielding valuable new insight into the predictive performance of point process-based prediction.  相似文献   

Socioeconomic characteristics and crash injury exposure: A case study in Florida using two-step floating catchment area method     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2017

The objective of this study is to investigate the exposure of different population groups to severe injury crash hotspots using an empirical-Gaussian two-step floating catchment area (EG-2SFCA) method based on roadway network distances and a socioeconomic-based weighting approach. This is performed by developing a special form of a crash-to-population ratio index that incorporates the severe crash hotspots relative to the locations of populations they might impact. While identifying these hotspots, four different age groups are considered: 17 and younger, 18 to 21, 22 to 64 and 65 and older. For each age group, severe crash hotspots are identified based on the roadway network and the number of severely injured crash occupants that belong to the specific age group. Using these age-specific crash hotspots and the EG-2SFCA method, communities that were exposed to elevated crash injury risk (crash injury exposure) have been identified. Furthermore, from a residential perspective, a socioeconomic analysis is conducted in order to develop a socioeconomics-based crash injury exposure measure. This measure assesses the exposure of different socioeconomic groups to the risk of being injured. Results demonstrated by applying this measure in the Tampa Bay region, FL show that different population groups are under varying risk of being injured depending on their residential location. The developed approach has the potential to be a social fairness measure able to be applied by agencies, which could enhance the well-being of communities that are subject to elevated injury risk.  相似文献   

Structural analysis of the segmentation of the Central Indian Ridge between 20°30′S and 25°30′S (Rodriguez Triple Junction)     

Anne Briais 《Marine Geophysical Researches》1995,17(5):431-467

The morphological characteristics of the segmentation of the Central Indian Ridge (CIR) from the Indian Ocean Triple Junction (25°30S) to the Egeria Transform Fault system (20°30S) are analyzed. The compilation of Sea Beam data from R/VSonne cruises SO43 and SO52, and R/VCharcot cruises Rodriguez 1 and 2 provides an almost continuous bathymetric coverage of a 450-km-long section of the ridge axis. The bathymetric data are combined with a GLORIA side-scan sonar swath to visualize the fabric of the ridge and complement the coverage in some areas. This section of the CIR has a full spreading rate of about 50 mm yr^–1, increasing slightly from north to south. The morphology of the CIR is generally similar to that of a slow-spreading center, despite an intermediate spreading rate at these latitudes. The axis is marked by an axial valley 5–35 km wide and 500–1800 m deep, sometimes exhibiting a 100–600 m-high neovolcanic ridge. It is offset by only one 40km offset transform fault (at 22°40S), and by nine second-order discontinuities, with offsets varying from 4 to 21 km, separating segments 28 to 85 km long. The bathymetry analysis and an empirical orthogonal function analysis performed on across-axis profiles reveal morphologic variations in the axis and the second-order discontinuities. The ridge axis deepens and the relief across the axial valley increases from north to south. The discontinuities observed south of 22°S all have morphologies similar to those of the slow-spreading Mid-Atlantic Ridge. North of 22°S, two discontinuities have map geometries that have not been observed previously on slow-spreading ridges. The axial valleys overlap, and their tips curve toward the adjacent segment. The overlap distance is 2 to 4 times greater than the offset. Based on these characteristics, these discontinuities resemble overlapping spreading centers (OSCs) described on the fast-spreading EPR. The evolution of one such discontinuity appears to decapitate a nearby segment, as observed for the evolution of some OSCs on the EPR. These morphological variations of the CIR axis may be explained by an increase in the crustal thickness in the north of the study area relative to the Triple Junction area. Variations in crustal thickness could be related to a broad bathymetric anomaly centered at 19°S, 65°E, which probably reflects the effect of the nearby Réunion hotspot, or an anomaly in the composition of the mantle beneath the ridge near 19°S. Other explanations for the morphological variations include the termination of the CIR at the Rodriguez Triple Junction or the kinematic evolution of the triple junction and its resultant lengthening of the CIR. These latter effects are more likely to account for the axial morphology near the Triple Junction than for the long-wavelength morphological variation.  相似文献   

地幔柱的概念、分类、演化与大规模成矿——对中国西南部的探讨   总被引：33，自引：2，他引：33  

王登红 《地学前缘》2001,8(3):67-72

自核幔边界上升的物质 ,当其汇聚成圆柱状的结合体 ,并因其相对于周围地幔环境来说具有温度更高、活动性更强、粘度更低等特点而能够上升到壳幔边界时 ,一般可以演化成为具有宽厚的冠状构造和细长的尾部构造的地幔柱。地幔柱进一步与地壳发生作用 ,可以在地表记录下一系列的热点或形成巨大的火成岩省。根据地幔柱最后出露的位置 ,可以将其分为洋壳和陆壳环境下产出的两种基本类型 ,也可以根据其演化历史分出不同的阶段 ,如初始阶段、上升阶段、成熟阶段和衰退阶段。中国西南部地区可能经历了两次以上的地幔柱冲击 ,二叠纪的峨眉山玄武岩是一个古生代晚期演化比较彻底的地幔柱留下的记录 ,而新生代以来的地幔柱活动可能正在发育 ,深部物质的大规模上隆可能是青藏高原隆升的一个原因 ,大量的散布的幔源岩浆活动和流体作用可能是中国西南部大规模成矿作用的重要原因。  相似文献   

Determining the road traffic accident hotspots using GIS-based temporal-spatial statistical analytic techniques in Hanoi,Vietnam     

Khanh Giang Le  Pei Liu  Liang-Tay Lin 《地球空间信息科学学报》2020,23(2):153-164

ABSTRACT

This study applied GIS-based statistical analytic techniques to investigate the influence of accident Severity Index (SI) on temporal-spatial patterns of accident hotspots related to the specific time intervals of day and seasons. Road Traffic Accident (RTA) data in 3 years (2015 ? 2017) in Hanoi, Vietnam were used to analyze and test this approach. Firstly, the RTA data were divided into four seasons in accordance with Hanoi’s weather conditions and the time intervals such as the daytime, nighttime, or peak hours. Then, the Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) method was applied to analyze hotspots according to the time intervals and seasons. Finally, the results were presented by using the comap technique. This study considered both analyses with and without SI. The accident SI measures the seriousness of an accident. The approach method is to give higher weights to the more serious accidents, but not with the extremely high values calculated on a direct rate to the accident expenditures. The results showed that both analyses determined the relatively similar hotspots, but the rankings of some hotspots were quite different due to the integration of SI. It is better to take into account SI in determining RTA hotspots because the gained results are more precise and the rankings of hotspots are more accurate. From there, the traffic authorities can easily understand the causes behind each accident and provide reasonable solutions to solve the most dangerous hotspots in case of limited budget and resources appropriately. This is also the first study about this issue in Vietnam, so the contribution of the article will help the traffic authorities easily solve this problem not only in Hanoi but also in other cities.  相似文献   

地慢柱与热点的成矿作用   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

王登红 《地球学报》1996,17(4):393-400

地幔往与热点是当今地质学前沿课题之一，但研究程度较低，国内更是刚刚起步。本文从时空演化的角度探讨了地幔柱一热点的成矿作用。地幔柱与热点既可见于板块内部，也可见于洋中脊和造山带等板块边界，既可见于现代更可见于古代，因此它可能影响到地表各处以及地史上各阶段的成矿作用．而且在其自身演化的各个阶段都有不同类型的矿化特征。已知的矿床类型包括锡、铜、铅锌、铀、稀土及宝石等。我国华南东钨西锡、东老西新的成矿规律、二叠纪峨眉山玄武岩、白云鄂博稀土矿以及阿尔泰与碱性岩有关的锡多金属成矿系列等，都可能与地幔柱－热点作用有关。  相似文献   

植被冠层热点的季相和日相变化     

苏理宏  李小文  A.Stralher  E.Tsvetsinskay  王锦地 《遥感学报》2002,6(4):241-245

随着热点卫星Triana的即将发射，地表热点季相和日相变化的研究变得日益重要。以几种植被冠层为例，采用计算机模拟的方法考查冠层热点的季相和日相变化。  相似文献   

基于CNKI期刊文献数据库的沙产业研究进展分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

张晓琴  苏志珠  马义娟  刘婷 《中国沙漠》2021,41(3):56-65

近30年来,沙产业的理论性研究和实践性成果取得了显著的进展。基于CNKI中国知网知识发现网络平台数据库,使用文献计量方法搜索以沙产业为关键词的文献,定量分析了沙产业概念提出至今的研究进展,包括沙产业的发文量、发文期刊、研究作者、文献引用情况,通过关键词共现知识图谱的归类分析得到了有关沙产业研究领域的“防沙治沙”、“企业管理”、“区域研究”、“发展对策”四大类热点关键词,分别解释了沙产业为什么发展、在哪里发展和怎样发展的问题。沙产业发端于甘肃的河西走廊,成长于内蒙古的库布齐沙漠、乌兰布和沙漠,在新疆、宁夏等西部受荒漠化危害严重的省区也得到了迅速发展,取得了一定的生态效益和经济效益,成为了沙区防治沙漠化和发展经济最有效的途径,但依然存在科技成果转化慢、缺乏对沙区资源的定量评价和区域发展不协调等问题亟待解决,因此沙区要充分利用当地发展优势结合国家政策推动沙产业更快更好发展。  相似文献   

Alpine Ecosystems of Northwest Yunnan, China： an Initial Assessment for Conservation   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Ruth Sherman Renee Mullen LI Haomin FANG Zhendong WANG Yi 《山地科学学报》2007,4(3):181-192

Implementing conservation actions on-the-ground is not a straightforward process,especially when faced with high scientific uncertainty due to limited available information. This is especially acute in regions of the world that harbor many unique species that have not been well studied,such as the alpine zone of the Hengduan Mountains of Northwest Yunnan (NWY),a global biodiversity hotspot and site of The Nature Conservancy’s Yunnan Great Rivers Project. We conducted a quantitative,but rapid regional-level assessment of the alpine flora across NWY to provide a broad-based understanding of local and regional patterns of the alpine flora,the first large-scale analysis of alpine biodiversity patterns in this region. Multivariate analyses were used to classify the major plant community types and link community patterns to habitat variables. Our analysis indicated that most species had small distributions and/or small population sizes. Strong patterns emerged with higher diversity in the more northern mountains,but beta diversity was high,averaging only 10% among sites. The ordinations indicated that elevation and geographic location were the dominant environ-mental gradients underlying the differences in the species composition among communities. The high beta diversity across the alpine of these mountains implies that conservation strategies ultimately will require the protection of large numbers of species over a large geographical area. However,prioritiza-tion should be given to areas where potential payoffs are greatest. Sites with high species richness also have a greater number of endemic species,and,by focusing efforts on these sites,conservation investments would be maximized by protecting the greatest number of unique species.  相似文献   

一种利用HJ-IRS影像的林火火点自动检测算法     

詹剑锋  范冲  李陶 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2012,37(11)

对比分析了MODIS传感器和HJ-IRS传感器的差异,在MODIS火点探测V4算法的基础上,通过对云和水体掩膜方法的改进及算法中各阈值的调整,提出了一种适于HJ-IRS的林火火点自动检测算法。以我国黑龙江地区及俄罗斯远东地区为研究对象,通过与采用V4算法生产的相同区域内同时相的MODIS火点产品进行对比分析,发现IRS火点产品在空间分布上与MODIS火点产品基本一致,并没有出现漏检现象;而在低温小火点的探测及火点的几何定位方面,HJ-IRS更具优势。  相似文献