利用两次新疆于田M_S7.3地震对 图像信息方法可预测性的检验          下载免费PDF全文

夏彩韵  张永仙  张小涛  吴永加 《地震学报》2015,37(2):312-322

以青藏构造块体为研究区域, 采用以往利用图像信息方法预测M7.0地震得到的较好的计算参数(网格尺度为1平方度, 预测时间窗口为8年), 系统计算了青藏构造块体1993年以来的“地震热点”图像, 特别研究了两次于田M_S7.3地震前后的图像信息演化过程, 并通过ROC方法和R值评分方法检验, 对图像信息方法在该地区的预测效能进行评价. 结果表明: ① 2008年3月21日于田M_S7.3地震和2014年2月12日于田M_S7.3地震均发生在地震热点上, 且发生在平均发震概率随时间变化的峰值点年份. ② 在回溯性检验的时间段内青藏构造块体共发生9次M≥7.0地震, 其中6次地震前震中附近均有稳定的地震热点出现, 包括两次于田M_S7.3地震. 1996年喀喇昆仑山口M_S7.1地震及2008年汶川M_S8.0地震只在个别预测时间窗内出现地震热点, 并没有出现稳定的地震热点演化过程, 而1996年丽江地震发生前震中附近则没有出现地震热点. 该结果与前人研究结果存在差异, 值得进一步研究. ③ ROC检验和R值评分结果均显示图像信息方法在本文采用的模型参数下对大地震具有较好的中长期预测效果. 本文还根据目前存在的地震热点给出了青藏高原块体2014年以后M7.0地震发生概率高的3个可能地区.   相似文献   

Modelling the composition of melts formed during continental breakup of the Southeast Greenland margin     

John J. Armitage  Timothy J. Henstock  Timothy A. Minshull  John R. Hopper 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2008,269(1-2):248-258

We have developed a generic dynamic model of extension of the lithosphere, which predicts major element composition and volume of melt generated from initial extension to steady state seafloor spreading. Stokes equations for non-Newtonian flow are solved and the mantle melts by decompression. Strengthening of the mantle due to dehydration as melting progresses is included. The composition is then empirically related to depletion. Using a crystallisation algorithm, the predicted primary melt composition was compared with mean North Atlantic mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB). At steady state, using half spreading rates from 10 to 20 mm yr^− 1 and mantle potential temperatures of 1300 to 1325 °C we predict a major element composition that is within the variation in the mean of North Atlantic MORB.

This model is applied to the Southeast Greenland margin, which has extensive coverage of seismic and ODP core data. These data have been interpreted to indicate an initial pulse of magmatism on rifting that rapidly decayed to leave oceanic crustal thickness of 8 to 11 km. This pattern of melt production can be recreated by introducing an initial hot layer of asthenosphere beneath the continental lithosphere and by having a period of fast spreading during early opening. The hot layer was convected through the melt region giving a pulse of high magnesian and low silica melt during the early rifting process. The predicted major element composition of primary melts generated are in close agreement with primary melts from the Southeast Greenland margin. The observed variations in major element composition are reproduced without a mantle source composition anomaly.  相似文献   

Spatial organization of macroinvertebrate assemblages in the Lower Mekong Basin     

《Limnologica》2017

In this study, we investigated patterns of spatial variation in macroinvertebrate assemblages in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) and examined their relationship with environmental factors. Cluster analysis was used to group macroinvertebrate samples and Linear Discriminant Analysis was performed to discriminate the major factors associated with the macroinvertebrate assemblages. Four clusters could be distinguished based on the dissimilarity between macroinvertebrate assemblages. The assemblages related to the tributaries and the upstream parts (cluster II) were characterized by a lower richness, abundance, diversity and a lower number of indicator taxa compared to the assemblage found downstream in the Mekong delta (cluster I). Aquatic insects and their indicator taxa (e.g. Caenodes sp., Dipseudopsis sp. and Gomphidae sp.), preferring a high-altitude environment with a high dissolved oxygen concentration and a high density of wood/shrub and evergreen forests, were the most predominant group in the assemblages occupying the tributaries and the upstream parts (cluster IIa). The assemblage found in the delta, consisting largely of molluscs and a moderate richness and abundance of worms, crustaceans and dipteran insects, was mainly represented by Corbicula leviuscula and C. moreletiana (molluscs), Namalycastis longicirris and Chaetogaster langi (worms), Corophium minutum and Grandidierella lignorum (crustaceans), and Cricotopus sp. and Clinotanypus sp. (dipteran insects). This assemblage was associated with a large watershed surface area, deep and wide rivers and a high water temperature. The intermediate assemblage (cluster IIb1) in-between could be discriminated based on land cover types including inundated, wetland and agricultural land, and was represented most by molluscs. Strikingly, the assemblage occupying the upstream parts (cluster IIa), which is related to intensified agriculture and a moderate conductivity, was characterized by a higher macroinvertebrate diversity compared to the mountainous and less impacted tributaries. This could mean that the natural stress is high in these systems for some taxa, leading to a lower overall taxonomic richness and abundance. Nevertheless, the number of taxa and the diversity of macroinvertebrates remained relatively high across the basin, especially in the delta assemblage. Therefore, the LMB deserves a particular attention for conservation.  相似文献   

Coastal geomorphic chronosequences across broad spatiotemporal scales. Metrical observations from the Cape Verde hotspot     

Nicolás Ferrer-Valero  Luis Hernández-Calvento 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(3):511-525

The study of the coastal landscapes of hotspot oceanic islands through comprehensive structural metrics and ecological estimators represents an opportunity to explore geomorphological transformations and broad spatiotemporal scale features of coastal evolution. As part of this approach, a new metrical comparative analysis is presented in this study, comprising four islands in different evolutionary stages. They belong to the Cape Verde archipelago, which forms a double insular chain in which an east–west gradient in age and evolution is particularly evident across the southern chain. A space-for-time (SFT) substitution approach is applied to the coasts of (1) Fogo, in the shield stage; (2) Santiago, in the early post-erosional stage; (3) São Vicente, in the advanced post-erosional stage; and (4) Boa Vista, in the last erosional stage. From the obtained spatial distributions and frequencies of landforms, the coastal landscapes of these islands are compared in relation to their (i) geomorphic composition, using similarity indices (Whittaker, β_w, Sorensen, C_s) and nestedness estimators (NOFD, WNODF), (ii) geomorphic abundance, using morpho-assembling densities (D_gm), and (iii) geomorphic diversity, using six alpha-diversity indices (Richness, S, Menhinick, D_MN, Simpson, D, Shannon, H', Berger-Parker, d, and Brillouin, HB). An advanced geomorphological taxonomy is implemented for areas with limited open-access data, including a set of planform features captured through scale-frequency decomposition. Photographic, cartographic and fieldwork data are used for landform identification at 1200 random sampling points, empirically determined by a bootstrap method. The results show a chronological ordering of the compared variables and a possible co-evolution towards an increase in organizational geomorphic complexity of coastal systems at broad space-timescales. The method proposed in this study can contribute, from a metrical perspective, to finding new long-term evolutionary features and constitutes an advance in the development of an integrated model of coastal evolution in oceanic islands. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

全球恐怖袭击事件时空演变与态势分析     

王诚聪  刘亚静  刘明月 《地球信息科学学报》2019,21(11):1710-1720

恐怖主义具有极大的破坏性与杀伤力,已成为世界和平与安全的最大威胁之一。本文以全球恐怖主义数据库（GTD）为基础,采用伤亡人数的热点分析以及各区域事件频次的层次聚类方法,对全球恐怖主义袭击事件的时空演变特征与态势进行分析研究,探讨了2013-2017年内全球高伤亡率热点区域的空间分布与变化,并对不同地区的袭击频次进行统计并划分了事发率严重等级。研究表明：① 5年内,伤亡人数在2014年为最高达103 134人,而后逐年递减的趋势;袭击频次呈现一种锯齿状为“猖狂-治理-收敛-不治理-再次猖狂”的模式;② 中东及北非地区是恐怖主义袭击的严重区与策源地,也是高伤亡率的热点区域,平均每年伤亡人数约占全球的49%,事件发生频次约占40%,而南亚伤亡人数约占22.8%,袭击频次约31.1%,撒哈拉以南的非洲地区次之,东南亚及西欧、东欧、南美地区也为恐怖主义的暴动区域;③ 全球恐怖主义的时空演变趋势已形成以中东及北非地区以及与撒哈拉以南的非洲交界区域为爆发中心,逐渐向南亚、东南亚、西欧地区扩散的趋势,为新的恐怖主义活跃区。通过对5年内全球恐怖主义的时空演变和态势,以及造成恐怖主义发生的原因进行分析,可为反恐组织以及避免袭击事件的发生提供有效的参考和决策辅助。  相似文献   

Ross-Li核驱动模型热点参数化及其校正—以POLDER数据为例   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

常雅轩  焦子锑  董亚冬  张小宁  何丹丹  尹思阳  崔磊  丁安心 《遥感学报》2019,23(4):661-672

半经验、核驱动二向性反射分布函数(BRDF)模型是多角度遥感领域的一个重要模型,其热点效应在应用BRDF反演其它地表参数时有重要作用。本研究针对树冠内部叶片的间隙对热点的影响,对几何光学核的重叠函数进行热点效应的改进,并利用POLDER多角度观测数据集,对改进热点效应后的不同核函数组合模型的最优热点参数进行了确定。通过最小均方根误差(RMSE)筛选出最优热点参数,进一步分析不同模型对热点参数的敏感性和RMSE随热点参数的变化情况。结果表明:(1)该热点参数化方法可用于Ross-Li核驱动模型不同核函数组合的情况,热点校正后的模型相对于原模型很好地改善了对热点反射率的拟合能力;(2)热点参数最优值在几何光学核为LSRC (LiSparseRChen)与LDRC (LiDenseRChen)组成的模型中出现明显差别,C1在LDRC模型中的值远小于LSRC模型,主要是因为LDRC核函数自身较好考虑了树冠尺度下的热点效应,所以该热点参数改进方法起到的补偿作用较小;(3)总体上,同一模型的C1参数比C2参数对热点的变化更敏感。本研究为Ross-Li核驱动模型的热点效应进一步校正及热点参数的取值范围提供了依据,对Ross-Li模型的推广有重要意义,改进热点效应后的模型可用于未来国产多角度卫星的数据处理流程中,以获取加精确的地物热点反射率信息。  相似文献   

城市POI的空间数据分析与可视化表达     

迟璐  宋伟东  朱霞 《测绘与空间地理信息》2020,(2):109-113,117

随着科技的迅速发展,地理空间数据已经成为人们日常生活中的一部分,城市POI数据则是涵盖城市公共基础设施属性信息与位置信息的大型地理空间数据。针对现阶段对城市POI数据利用程度不充分的问题,本文运用密度分析、热点分析以及服务范围分析等方法研究大连金普新区城市POI数据的空间分布特征。结果表明:大连金普新区城市POI数据呈现"二区八带多点"的分布格局,金石滩街道、中长街道、先进街道以及大李家街道医疗、教育、娱乐设施较为完善,且远离工厂,比较宜居。本研究可为市民生活、工作、学习、娱乐提供参考,也可为城市发展、管理维护提供服务。  相似文献   

地幔柱研究述评     

周连成  白伟明  赵俐红  陆凯 《海洋地质前沿》2004,20(8):16-19

地幔柱与热点既可见于板块内部,也可见于洋中脊和造山带等板块边界,既可见于现代更可见于古代,因而它可能影响到地表各处的成矿作用。简单介绍了地幔柱特征、类型及其在富钴结壳成矿作用中的地位。  相似文献   

鄱阳湖越冬雁类时空分布特征及热点区域识别     

王晨溪  夏少霞  余定坤  于秀波  龚磊强 《湖泊科学》2024,36(3):836-845

鄱阳湖是东亚—澳大利西亚迁徙路线上重要的水鸟越冬栖息地,雁类是迁徙路线上的优势种群。然而,近年来迁徙路线上的雁类种群数量有所下降,识别越冬地雁类时空分布特征,确定分布热点区域是科学、精准保护的前提。本研究利用2018—2021年越冬期在鄱阳湖区域开展的共58次水鸟调查数据,提取了基于时间序列的白额雁(Anser albifrons)、豆雁(Anserfabalis)、鸿雁(Anser cygnoid)的分布数据,分析了3种雁类在越冬地的种群动态、时间和空间分布动态,评估了鄱阳湖各子湖的重要性,确定了雁类分布热点区域。研究结果表明,3种雁类在越冬地的种群数量表现出一定的年际波动,雁类种群总数量维持在27.9万～44.8万只;不同雁类迁徙的时间节律存在差异,本次地面调查数据显示白额雁、豆雁、鸿雁分别是在10月初至11月初、11月中旬、12月中旬到达鄱阳湖,其中鸿雁到达最晚;高峰期集中在11月底至次年2月初,持续时间约为100天;3种雁类分别在2月中旬、2月底和3月中旬开始迁离鄱阳湖。3种雁类空间分布范围有所差异,豆雁分布范围最广,白额雁分布相对集中,高峰期雁类的分布范围最大,对子湖的利用强...  相似文献   

幔源铀成矿作用探讨   总被引：16，自引：0，他引：16  

王正其  李子颖 《地质论评》2007,53(5):608-615

地幔流体及深源铀成矿作用是当前铀矿地学界备受关注的前沿课题。文章扼要阐述了幔源铀成矿的地球动力学背景,评述了热点铀成矿理论。通过地幔流体参与铀成矿的现实性与地幔含铀性的论证,结合粤北“交点型”铀成矿地质地球化学特征,认为地幔中铀含量存在不均一性,在大陆型热点活动（地幔柱）区的岩石圈地幔通常含有较高的铀丰度;提出在热点驱动下,地幔流体（如CO2、F等）能够溶解或萃取地幔岩中的铀并得以浓集形成富铀成矿流体,幔源铀成矿是可能的。对幔源铀成矿作用机理作了初步探讨。  相似文献