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991.
This article describes a methodology to localise areas with high potential towards natural snowpack instability under particular meteorological conditions, at the scale of an Alpine valley. Localisation is based on statistically relating known release areas of past avalanche events to maps of: (1) slope inclination, (2) slope orientation (aspect), (3) elevation, (4) distance from crest lines, (5) terrain roughness and (6) concavities/convexities. The maps have been built using two different GIS softwares while the statistical analyses have been performed with a specific software handling also Fuzzy Set theory algorithms. The results of the statistical analyses have been verified on test release—areas which have not been used as input data for the statistical analyses. Verification allowed to quantify how reliably the susceptibility values were calculated, to compare the values obtained using different combinations of terrain features and to finally decide on the most efficient combination. The susceptibility maps were calculated and verified for three different meteorological scenarios (given by three classes of snow depth). Verification has shown that the accuracy of the susceptibility maps was between 67% and 82%. The three susceptibility maps show a remarkable difference in the spatial pattern of the highest susceptibility pixels suggesting that for different meteorological scenarios different classes of terrain features need to be considered.The possibility to make combinations of terrain features and to assess and verify their statistical relationship with release areas of past avalanche events is the major original step made by STARTER. Linking those release areas to meteorological scenarios is an attempt to include in the analysis the combined influence of terrain features and meteorological conditions towards snowpack instability. 相似文献
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T. P. Yegorova R. A. Stephenson S. L. Kostyuchenko E. P. Baranova V. I. Starostenko K. E. Popolitov 《Tectonophysics》2004,381(1-4):81
The present study was undertaken with the objective of deriving constraints from available geological and geophysical data for understanding the tectonic setting and processes controlling the evolution of the southern margin of the East European Craton (EEC). The study area includes the inverted southernmost part of the intracratonic Dnieper-Donets Basin (DDB)–Donbas Foldbelt (DF), its southeastern prolongation along the margin of the EEC–the sedimentary succession of the Karpinsky Swell (KS), the southwestern part of the Peri-Caspian Basin (PCB), and the Scythian Plate (SP). These structures are adjacent to a zone, along which the crust was reworked and/or accreted to the EEC since the late Palaeozoic. In the Bouguer gravity field, the southern margin of the EEC is marked by an arc of gravity highs, correlating with uplifted Palaeozoic rocks covered by thin Mesozoic and younger sediments. A three-dimensional (3D) gravity analysis has been carried out to investigate further the crustal structure of this area. The sedimentary succession has been modelled as two heterogeneous layers—Mesozoic–Cenozoic and Palaeozoic—in the analysis. The base of the sedimentary succession (top of the crystalline Precambrian basement) lies at a depth up to 22 km in the PCB and DF–KS areas. The residual gravity field, obtained by subtracting the gravitational effect of the sedimentary succession from the observed gravity field, reveals a distinct elongate zone of positive anomalies along the axis of the DF–KS with amplitudes of 100–140 mGal and an anomaly of 180 mGal in the PCB. These anomalies are interpreted to reflect a heterogeneous lithosphere structure below the supracrustal, sedimentary layers: i.e., Moho topography and/or the existence of high-density material in the crystalline crust and uppermost mantle. Previously published data support the existence of a high-density body in the crystalline crust along the DDB axis, including the DF, caused by an intrusion of mafic and ultramafic rocks during Late Palaeozoic rifting. A reinterpretation of existing Deep Seismic Sounding (DSS) data on a profile crossing the central KS suggests that the nature of a high-velocity/density layer in the lower crust (crust–mantle transition zone) is not the same as that of below the DF. Rather than being a prolongation of the DDB–DF intracratonic rift zone, the present analysis suggests that the KS comprises, at least in part, an accretionary zone between the EEC and the SP formed after the Palaeozoic. 相似文献
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Seismicity patterns of earthquake swarms due to fluid intrusion and stress triggering 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
Sebastian Hainzl 《Geophysical Journal International》2004,159(3):1090-1096
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Rongjiang Wang Heiko Woith Claus Milkereit Jochen Zschau 《Geophysical Journal International》2004,157(2):717-726
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Scattering attenuation ratios of P and S waves in elastic media 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Tae-Kyung Hong 《Geophysical Journal International》2004,158(1):211-224