一种改进的数值预报降水偏差订正方法及应用   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

孙靖  程光光  张小玲 《应用气象学报》2015,26(2):173-184

对传统的消除偏差法进行改进,形成分等级消除偏差法,并使用混合训练期和60 d滑动训练期方案分别对2012年6—8月ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting) 模式夏季1~5 d的降水预报进行订正试验。为了尽可能符合中国东部夏季降水具有移动性及多种时间尺度变化的特点,混合训练期以预报期前30 d与预报期前一年同日的前后各15 d组成。结果表明:在使用分等级消除偏差法的基础上,相比ECMWF模式降水预报,两种训练期方案的订正结果几乎对各个阈值的ETS评分均有一定提高,特别是对25 mm以上降水预报评分的提高幅度,混合训练期方案的订正结果明显高于60 d滑动训练期方案;在区域性强降水预报的订正中,混合训练期方案优势更为明显。另外,通过分析两种训练期方案的预报偏差发现,分等级订正是此次消除偏差订正试验中提高强降水预报评分的关键,选择合适的训练期可以增加评分提高的幅度。由于上述试验使用的ECMWF模式预报和站点实况均是业务上常用数据,因此,该方法具有一定的业务应用价值。  相似文献   

Titanium Isotope Analysis of Igneous Reference Materials using a Double-spike MC-ICP-MS Method     

LI Jin  TANG Suohan  ZHU Xiangkun  MA Jianxiong  ZHAO Xinmiao 《《地质学报》英文版》2022,96(2):517-524

Ti separation was achieved by ion-exchange chromatography using Bio-Rad AG 1-X8 anion-exchange and DGA resins. For high-Fe/Ti and high-Mg/Ti igneous samples, a three-column procedure was required, whereas a two-column procedure was used for low-Fe/Ti and low-Mg/Ti igneous samples. The Ti isotopes were analysed by MC-ICP-MS, and instrumental mass bias was corrected using a 47Ti-49Ti double-spike technique. The 47Ti-49Ti double-spike and SRM 3162a were calibrated using SRM 979-Cr, certificated value 53Cr/52Crtrue = 0.11339. Isobaric interference was evaluated by analysing Alfa-Ti doped with Na, Mg, Ca, and Mo, and results indicate that high concentrations of Na and Mg have no significant effect on Ti isotope analyses; however, Ca and Mo interferences lead to erroneous δ49/47Ti values when Ca/Ti and Mo/Ti ratios exceed 0.01 and 0.1, respectively. Titanium isotopic compositions were determined for 12 igneous reference materials, BCR-2, BHVO-2, GBW07105, AGV-1, AGV-2, W-2, GBW07123, GBW07126, GBW07127, GBW07101, JP-1, and DTS-2b. Samples yield δ49/47Ti (‰) of ?0.035 ± 0.022, ?0.038 ± 0.031, 0.031 ± 0.022, 0.059 ± 0.038, 0.044 ± 0.037, 0.000 ± 0.015, 0.154 ± 0.044, ?0.044 ± 0.018, 0.010 ± 0.022, 0.064 ± 0.043, 0.169 ± 0.034, and ?0.047 ± 0.025 (relative to OL-Ti, ±2SD), respectively; of which isotopic compositions of DTS-2b, JP-1, GBW07101, GBW07105, GBW07123, GBW07126, and GBW07127 are reported for the first time. Standard Alfa-Ti was analysed repeatedly over a ten-month period, indicating a reproducibility of ±0.047 (2SD) for δ49/47Ti, similar to the precisions obtained for geochemical reference materials.  相似文献   

台风期间浮标和潜标上ADCP的空间变化、数据误差及校正#br#          下载免费PDF全文

柯道勋  张翰  唐佑民  左军成  许东峰  杨成浩  姚志雄  沈浙奇  田娣 《海洋学研究》2022,40(1):101-111

基于南海北部浮标和潜标的声学多普勒流速剖面仪（ADCP）数据,通过一套几何算法计算了台风海鸥（1415）期间ADCP的空间变化和流速误差,并进行数据校正。浮标上,台风过后ADCP的水平位移最大可达2.61 km,水平流速误差最大可达0.27 m/s,垂向流速误差最大仅为5×10^-4 m/s;温跃层流速校正值在台风过后显著大于流速测值,这表明水平校正对于温跃层流速的质量控制很重要。潜标上,ADCP最大垂向位移增量为179 m,最大绳子倾角为35°,最大水平位移为1.5 km; ADCP水平流速误差和倾角误差都很小,在数据校正中可忽略不计,但对台风过后中层流速的垂向校正不能忽略。  相似文献   

ERA-Interim气温数据在中国区域的适用性评估   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

高路  郝璐 《福建地理》2014,(2):75-81

运用中国756个观测站点的逐月平均气温数据,对比分析了ERA-Interim再分析资料的误差。结果发现:ERA-Interim再分析资料能够很好地反映观测值的年际变化,相关性达到0.955~0.995。ERA-Interim在580个站点的冷偏差或暖偏差小于1℃,占站点总数的76.7%,可信度较高。64个站点的冷偏差或暖偏差大于5℃,可信度较低。ERA-Interim在东部地区的暖偏差多于西部地区,冷偏差的高值主要集中在西部地区的高海拔站点。海拔低于200 m的站点偏差最小,适用性好,多数海拔3 000 m以上的站点呈现较大冷偏差,适用性较差。通过回归分析发现,观测站点与ERA-Interim格点的高度差是导致误差的主要原因,因此通过高程校正能够有效降低误差,提高ERA-Interim适用性。  相似文献   

基于一次差分预报原理的常用钟差预报模型效果分析     

王宇谱  薛申辉  王威  丁阳  李博宇  刘峰宇 《大地测量与地球动力学》2021,41(4):336-341

基于15 d的精密卫星钟差数据,从不同角度全面分析6种常用钟差预报模型（LP模型、QP模型、GM模型、SA模型、ARIMA模型、KF模型）基于钟差一次差分预报原理的预报效果,得到以下结论：1）采用钟差一次差分预报原理,可以提高LP模型、SA模型、GM模型及KF模型对于GPS卫星钟差的3 h预报精度,提高QP模型和ARIMA模型对于ⅡF Rb钟的3 h预报精度,提高LP模型和GM模型在6 h和12 h预报中的精度,提高ARIMA模型在6 h、12 h和24 h预报中的精度;2）基于钟差一次差分预报原理的预报结果与卫星及其星载钟类型有关,对于GPS BLOCK ⅡF Rb钟,该预报原理可以提高6种模型的短期预报精度,特别是对GM模型、LP模型和ARIMA模型预报效果的改善最为显著;3）对于3 h和6 h的预报,采用钟差一次差分预报原理的LP模型（DLP模型）对应的RMS值都最小,即DLP模型的预报精度最高,说明钟差一次差分数据更适合一次多项式模型的短期预报。  相似文献   

未来气候情景下气候变化响应过程研究综述   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

成爱芳  冯起  张健恺  李宗省  王岗 《地理科学》2015,(1)

气候变化将会对生态系统、自然资源、极端气候和人类社会产生一定的影响,科学评估未来气候变化响应是应对气候变化的前提。通过对当前研究成果的回顾,建立未来气候情景下气候变化响应研究的系统思路,并总结了研究所涉及的方法。系统论述了应用第5阶段耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)气候模式前进行适用性评价的必要性;分析了当前降尺度方法尤其是统计降尺度的主要方法及进展;归纳了偏差校正过程中普遍使用的方法,最后,综合分析了整个研究过程中的不确定性。研究将为气候变化响应分析提供方法和思路指导。  相似文献   

Generalized Hough transform for the stress inversion of calcite twin data     

《Journal of Structural Geology》2015

Since the mechanical twinning along calcite e-planes has a critical resolved shear stress, not only principal stress axes but also differential stress can be determined from the orientations of twin lamellae. Based on the five-dimensional stress space that fulfills the principle of coordinate invariance, it is shown in this article that the inversion of twin and untwin data is comparable with fitting a spherical cap to data points on a unit sphere in the space. The principal stress orientations and stress ratio are indicated by the center of the cap, whereas differential stress is denoted by the size of the cap. Based on this geometrical interpretation, the generalized Hough transform was applied to the inversion of the data in this study. The new method is demonstrated to be robust to sampling bias, variability in the critical resolved shear stress. The determination of differential stress was difficult when the differential stress to be detected was ∼10 times larger than the critical resolved shear stress. Stresses were separated by the method from heterogeneous data successfully as long as the spherical caps corresponding to the stresses to be detected had no or a small intersection.  相似文献   

The delesse relation in a concentrically zoned sphere. I. The section-number bias     

Felix Chayes 《Mathematical Geology》1989,21(3):319-329

Zonal areas of a randomly chosen section through a concentrically zoned sphere yield an estimate of the (volumetric) amount of the outer zone which is subject to a large positive bias that decreases rapidly with increase in the number of sections on which the estimate is based. It will not exceed 3% of the amount present if an analysis is based on as many as 8 sections and will be less than 1% if 32 sections are used.  相似文献   

Using the hyperbolic model to estimate species richness     

A. H. Kalantar 《Mathematical Geology》1987,19(2):151-154

  相似文献   

区域集合预报系统2 m温度预报的校准技术   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

王敏  李晓莉  范广洲  李泽椿 《应用气象学报》2012,23(4):395-401

采用非齐次高斯回归 (NGR) 技术对国家气象中心区域集合预报系统的2 m温度预报结果开展了一阶偏差和二阶离散度的校准研究。对预报结果比较详尽的检验分析表明:校准后的2 m温度预报可靠性和预报技巧均显著提高,表现为校准后集合预报成员的均方根误差与离散度更为接近;原Talagrand直方图中的“L”形分布现象得到有效改善;Brier评分、最小连续分级概率评分 (CRPS) 明显减小,相对作用特征 (ROC) 面积增大,说明校准后的2 m温度预报表现出更好的预报技能。此外,NGR技术与自适应误差订正技术的对比试验表明,NGR在消除集合平均偏差和提高集合离散度两个方面均有优势。  相似文献