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41.
Agricultural climatic resources （such as light,temperature,and water） are environmental factors that affect crop productivity.Predicting the effects of climate change on agricultural climatic resource utilization can provide a theoretical basis for adapting agricultural practices and distributions of agricultural production.This study investigates these effects under the IPCC （Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change） scenario A1B using daily data from the high-resolution RegCM3 （0.25° ×0.25°） during 1951-2100.Model outputs are adjusted using corrections derived from daily observational data taken at 101 meteorological stations in Northeast China between 1971 and 2000.Agricultural climatic suitability theory is used to assess demand for agricultural climatic resources in Northeast China during the cultivation of spring maize.Three indices,i.e.,an average resource suitability index （Isr）,an average efficacy suitability index （Ise）,and an average resource utilization index （K）,are defined to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate change on climatic resource utilization between 1951 and 2100.These indices change significantly in both temporal and spatial dimensions in Northeast China under global warming.All three indices are projected to decrease in Liaoning Province from 1951 to 2100,with particularly sharp declines in Isr,Ise,and K after 2030,2021,and 2011,respectively.In Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces,Isr is projected to increase slightly after 2011,while Ise increases slightly and K decreases slightly after 2030.The spatial maxima of all three indices are projected to shift northeastward.Overall,warming of the climate in Northeast China is expected to negatively impact spring maize production,especially in Liaoning Province.Spring maize cultivation will likely need to shift northward and expand eastward to make efficient use of future agricultural climatic resources. 相似文献
42.
东北地区玉米整地、播种和收获气象适宜度评价模型 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
天气、土壤条件影响玉米整地、播种和收获作业的质量及作业效率,进而影响到苗情、产量和生产成本,东北地区相关的农业气象要素是土壤湿度、土壤解冻深度、温度、日雨量和风力等.根据气象、土壤条件对玉米整地、播种和收获的影响,用模糊隶属函数建立了这些农事活动气象适宜度评价函数及其农业气象指标,用权重法分别建立了整地、播种和收获综合气象适宜度评价模型.检验结果表明,这些模式和指标符合实际,可以用于相关农事活动的气象适宜度评价业务.在气温和降水等气象要素预报的基础上,该模型还可以用于相关农事气象适宜度和适宜期的预报. 相似文献
43.
This paper examines a model for estimating canopy resistance rc and reference evapotranspiration ETo on an hourly basis. The experimental data refer to grass at two sites in Spain with semiarid and windy conditions in a typical Mediterranean climate. Measured hourly ETo values were obtained over grass during a 4 year period between 1997 and 2000 using a weighing lysimeter (Zaragoza, northeastern Spain) and an eddy covariance system (Córdoba, southern Spain). The present model is based on the Penman–Monteith (PM) approach, but incorporates a variable canopy resistance rc as an empirical function of the square root of a climatic resistance r* that depends on climatic variables. Values for the variable rc were also computed according to two other approaches: with the rc variable as a straight‐line function of r* (Katerji and Perrier, 1983, Agronomie 3 (6): 513–521) and as a mechanistic function of weather variables as proposed by Todorovic (1999, Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, ASCE 125 (5): 235–245). In the proposed model, the results show that rc/ra (where ra is the aerodynamic resistance) presents a dependence on the square root of r*/ra, as the best approach with empirically derived global parameters. When estimating hourly ETo values, we compared the performance of the PM equation using those estimated variable rc values with the PM equation as proposed by the Food and Agriculture Organization, with a constant rc = 70 s m?1. The results confirmed the relative robustness of the PM method with constant rc, but also revealed a tendency to underestimate the measured values when ETo is high. Under the semiarid conditions of the two experimental sites, slightly better estimates of ETo were obtained when an estimated variable rc was used. Although the improvement was limited, the best estimates were provided by the Todorovic and the proposed methods. The proposed approach for rc as a function of the square root of r* may be considered as an alternative for modelling rc, since the results suggest that the global coefficients of this locally calibrated relationship might be generalized to other climatic regions. It may also be useful to incorporate the effects of variable canopy resistances into other climatic and hydrological models. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
44.
Sustainable water use is in serious crisis in the piedmont region of the Taihang Mountains in the North China Plain, owing to rapid groundwater drawdown. Estimating the water requirement for agriculture, the biggest user of groundwater, will be helpful in understanding groundwater decline. Through the use of DSSAT‐3·5 wheat and maize models, we assessed water use in winter wheat and maize, two staple crops in the region, in 1987–2001. Trends between groundwater change and simulated agricultural water use were compared. The results showed that groundwater decline was sensitive to simulated crop water requirement and irrigation requirement. According to regression analysis, 100 mm of water requirement by cultivated land (mainly wheat and maize) resulted in about 0·64 m of groundwater decline. This relationship might be useful in understanding the regional water balance and to help decision‐makers control groundwater decline through controlling crop water use or through long‐distance water transfer. The study demonstrated the usefulness of using the DSSAT model for estimating crop water use and the effectiveness of clarifying the reason for groundwater decline using the simulation results of water use. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
45.
Sustaining and increasing crop production and productivity has to be a major policy thrust for developing countries. Using a simulation approach different production strategies were evaluated conditioned on climate information to derive optimal strategies to help farmers reduce risk and increase productivity. By examining the existence of options in this case planting dates the study provides an analyses of the expected value and risks associated with changing decisions based on the availability of climate forecasts. The 15-March planting date produced the highest mean yield for the two cultivars examined although 1-April, 15-April and 1-May plantings had one to zero probability of crop failures compared to 15-March with crop failures in 4 out of 20 years. Results indicate losses of between 25 and 35 kg/day due to delays in planting from 15-March planting to 1-June planting for the 120- and 150-day cultivar. El niño years were associated with positive yield deviations for both cultivars and most planting dates. Farmers are known to make tactical adjustments to their management in light of information perceived relevant to the prospects of forthcoming crop. Although in its present form most current forecast products do not provide information on onset of the rainfall, however the information they do provide could play a crucial role in helping farmers reduce the risks posed by climatic variability. 相似文献
46.
Study on Effects of Building Morphology on Urban Boundary Layer Using an Urban Canopy Model 
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下载免费PDF全文 An urban canopy model is incorporated into the Nanjing University Regional Boundary Layer Model. Temperature simulated by the urban canopy model is in better agreement with the observation, especially in the night time, than that simulated by the traditional slab model. The coupled model is used to study the effects of building morphology on urban boundary layer and meteorological environment by changing urban area, building height, and building density.It is found that when the urban area is expanded, the urban boundary layer heat flux, thermal turbulence, and the turbulent momentum flux and kinetic energy all increase or enhance, causing the surface air temperature to rise up. The stability of urban atmospheric stratification is affected to different extent at different times of the day.When the building height goes up, the aerodynamic roughness height, zero plane displacement height of urban area, and ratio of building height to street width all increase. Therefore, the increase in building height results in the decrease of the surface heat flux, urban surface temperature, mean wind speed, and turbulent kinetic energy in daytime. While at night, as more heat storage is released by higher buildings, thermal turbulence is more active and surface heat flux increases, leading to a higher urban temperature.As the building density increases, the aerodynamic roughness height of urban area decreases, and the effect of urban canopy on radiation strengthens. The increase of building density results in the decrease in urban surface heat flux, momentum flux, and air temperature, the increase in mean wind speed, and the weakening of turbulence in the daytime. While at night, the urban temperature increases due to the release of more heat storage. 相似文献
47.
一种单层城市冠层模式的建立及数值试验研究 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
本文在引进先进的城市地表能量平衡方案 (Town Energy Balance, 简称TEB) 的基础上建立了一个单层城市冠层模式, 并对南京市典型居民区1 km2范围内的局地尺度地表能量平衡各分量进行离线模拟, 将模拟结果与同期观测值作了比对, 发现: TEB方案对城市地表能量平衡各分量的模拟效果良好, 而该方案的模拟性能受建筑物表面材料反照率取值的影响较大。在离线研究的基础上, 本文又将TEB方案成功耦合到南京大学区域边界层模式 (NJU－RBLM) 中, 作为该模式的地表能量平衡参数化方案之一, 分别选取该边界层模式中原有的地表能量平衡参数化方案SVAT (Soil－Vegetation－Atmosphere－Transfer model) 和新引入的TEB方案对冬夏两季不同个例进行模拟, 以常规近地面气温观测资料和Landsat卫星观测的地表反照率资料对模拟结果进行比较, 结果表明: TEB方案对原大气边界层模式的模拟效果有明显改善, 对近地面热力场的改善效果尤为明显, 可以很好地模拟出城市冠层中的“陷阱效应”。 相似文献
48.
J. F. Barlow G. G. Rooney S. von Hünerbein S. G. Bradley 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2008,127(2):173-191
Profiles of wind and turbulence over an urban area evolve with fetch in response to surface characteristics. Sodar measurements,
taken on 22 April 2002 during the Salford Experiment in the UK (Salfex), are here related to upstream terrain. A logarithmic
layer up to z = 65m was observed in all half-hour averaged profiles. Above this height the profile showed a different vertical gradient,
suggesting a change in surface cover upstream. The drag coefficient varied by a factor of two over only a 20° direction change.
Turbulence intensity (σ
x
) for each wind component (x) decreased with height, but the ratio suggested an underestimate of σ
u
compared to previous results. Mean urban and suburban cover fraction within the source area for each height decreased sharply
between z = 20 and 50m, increasing slightly above. The near-convergence of cover fractions thus occured for source areas of minimum
length ≈ 2,200 m. In comparison, the mean length scale of heterogeneity L
P was calculated from surface cover data to be 1,284 m, and the corresponding mean blending height h
b was 175 m. Finally, the mean streamline angle, α, was negative and the magnitude decreased with height. An exponential fit
to α for z ≤ 65m gave an e-folding height scale of 159 m. A simple relationship between this height scale and L
P was assumed, giving L
P ≈ 1,080 m, which is in reasonable agreement with the estimate from surface cover type. The results suggest that more emphasis
is required on modelling and measuring surface-layer flow over heterogeneous urban canopies. 相似文献
49.
High-accuracy large-eddy simulations of neutral atmospheric surface-layer flow over a gapped plant canopy strip have been
performed. Subgrid-scale (SGS) motions are parameterized by the Sagaut mixed length SGS model, with a modification to compute
the SGS characteristic length self-adaptively. Shaw’s plant canopy model, taking the vertical variation of leaf area density
into account, is applied to study the response of the atmospheric surface layer to the gapped dense forest strip. Differences
in the region far away from the gap and in the middle of the gap are investigated, according to the instantaneous velocity
magnitude, the zero-plane displacement, the potential temperature and the streamlines. The large-scale vortex structure, in
the form of a roll vortex, is revealed in the region far away from the gap. The nonuniform spatial distribution of plants
appears to cause the formation of the coherent structure. The roll vortex starts in the wake of the canopy, and results in
strong fluctuations throughout the entire canopy region. Wind sweeps and ejections in the plant canopy are also attributed
to the large vortex structure. 相似文献
50.
Investigating a Hierarchy of Eulerian Closure Models for Scalar Transfer Inside Forested Canopies 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0
Jehn-Yih Juang Gabriel G. Katul Mario B. Siqueira Paul C. Stoy Heather R. McCarthy 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2008,128(1):1-32
Modelling the transfer of heat, water vapour, and CO2 between the biosphere and the atmosphere is made difficult by the complex two-way interaction between leaves and their immediate microclimate. When simulating scalar sources and sinks inside canopies on seasonal, inter-annual, or forest development time scales, the so-called well-mixed assumption (WMA) of mean concentration (i.e. vertically constant inside the canopy but dynamically evolving in time) is often employed. The WMA eliminates the need to model how vegetation alters its immediate microclimate, which necessitates formulations that utilize turbulent transport theories. Here, two inter-related questions pertinent to the WMA for modelling scalar sources, sinks, and fluxes at seasonal to inter-annual time scales are explored: (1) if the WMA is to be replaced so as to resolve this two-way interaction, how detailed must the turbulent transport model be? And (2) what are the added predictive skills gained by resolving the two-way interaction vis-à-vis other uncertainties such as seasonal variations in physiological parameters. These two questions are addressed by simulating multi-year mean scalar concentration and eddy-covariance scalar flux measurements collected in a Loblolly pine (P. taeda L.) plantation near Durham, North Carolina, U.S.A. using turbulent transport models ranging from K-theory (or first-order closure) to third-order closure schemes. The multi-layer model calculations with these closure schemes were contrasted with model calculations employing the WMA. These comparisons suggested that (i) among the three scalars, sensible heat flux predictions are most biased with respect to eddy-covariance measurements when using the WMA, (ii) first-order closure schemes are sufficient to reproduce the seasonal to inter-annual variations in scalar fluxes provided the canonical length scale of turbulence is properly specified, (iii) second-order closure models best agree with measured mean scalar concentration (and temperature) profiles inside the canopy as well as scalar fluxes above the canopy, (iv) there are no clear gains in predictive skills when using third-order closure schemes over their second-order closure counterparts. At inter-annual time scales, biases in modelled scalar fluxes incurred by using the WMA exceed those incurred when correcting for the seasonal amplitude in the maximum carboxylation capacity (V cmax, 25) provided its mean value is unbiased. The role of local thermal stratification inside the canopy and possible computational simplifications in decoupling scalar transfer from the generation of the flow statistics are also discussed.
相似文献
“The tree, tilting its leaves to capture bullets of light; inhaling, exhaling; its many thousand stomata breathing, creating the air”. Ruth Stone, 2002, In the Next Galaxy