广西气象数据中心机房供电系统设计与保障     

封大辉  高钰杰  邓力涌 《气象研究与应用》2019,40(1):91-95

针对供配电系统容易发生的安全隐患,优化设计配电系统结构、采用一体化运维监控平台和采用高质量、高可靠性的设备,消除单点故障瓶颈,确保在停电、设备故障、维修维护等各种情况下提供不中断或快速恢复供电,避免停电对业务正常运行造成影响,确保机房供电安全。  相似文献   

基于小波长短期记忆网络的风电功率超短期概率预测     

王朋  孙永辉  翟苏巍  候栋宸  王森 《南京气象学院学报》2019,11(4):460-466

随着大规模的风电并网,风电所具有的间歇性与随机性对电力系统的稳定性产生了很大的影响,风电功率预测成为当前解决该问题重要的方式之一.本文利用长短期记忆（LSTM）网络良好的时序记忆特性,将小波分解技术与LSTM深度网络结合,提出基于小波长短期记忆网络的风电功率超短期概率预测模型.首先通过小波分解技术将原始时间序列进行平稳化处理,再建立各子序列样本的LSTM网络预测模型,借助最大似然估计法估计预测误差的高斯分布函数,最终实现对未来4 h时刻的风电功率概率区间预测.最后,采用中国东北某风电场数据对所提方法进行算例分析,结果表明,将小波分解与深度学习方法结合可以较好地提高预测的精度,提高概率预测的区间可靠性.  相似文献   

Holocene peatland development and hydrological variability inferred from bog‐pine dendrochronology and peat stratigraphy – a case study from southern Sweden     

Johannes Edvardsson  Hans Linderson  Mats Rundgren  Dan Hammarlund 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(6):553-563

Dendrochronological analysis was applied to subfossil remains of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) buried in a South Swedish peat deposit. In combination with peat stratigraphy, this approach was explored for its potential to provide information on the local hydrological and depositional history at the site, forming the basis for a regional palaeohydrological analysis. A 726‐year ring‐width chronology was developed and assigned an absolute age of 7233–6508 cal a BP (5284–4559 BC) through cross‐dating with German bog‐pine chronologies, whereas two short additional records of older ages were radiocarbon dated. Registration of growth positions of individual trees allowed assessment of the spatial dynamics of the pine population in response to hydrological changes and peatland ontogeny. Annually resolved growth variability patterns in the pine population reveal several establishment and degeneration phases, probably reflecting fluctuations in bog‐surface wetness. A major establishment phase at 7200–6900 cal a BP reflects the onset of a period of lowered groundwater level, also indicated by increased peat humification, and a development consistent with regional temperature and lake level reconstructions revealed from other proxies. This study demonstrates that subfossil bog‐pine populations may provide annually to decadally resolved reconstructions of local groundwater variability, which are highly relevant in a long‐term palaeoclimatic context. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Uncertainty,entropy, scaling and hydrological stochastics. 1. Marginal distributional properties of hydrological processes and state scaling / Incertitude,entropie, effet d'échelle et propriétés stochastiques hydrologiques. 1. Propriétés distributionnelles marginales des processus hydrologiques et échelle d'état     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3)

Abstract

The well-established physical and mathematical principle of maximum entropy (ME), is used to explain the distributional and autocorrelation properties of hydrological processes, including the scaling behaviour both in state and in time. In this context, maximum entropy is interpreted as maximum uncertainty. The conditions used for the maximization of entropy are as simple as possible, i.e. that hydrological processes are non-negative with specified coefficients of variation (CV) and lag one autocorrelation. In this first part of the study, the marginal distributional properties of hydrological variables and the state scaling behaviour are investigated. Application of the ME principle under these very simple conditions results in the truncated normal distribution for small values of CV and in a nonexponential type (Pareto) distribution for high values of CV. In addition, the normal and the exponential distributions appear as limiting cases of these two distributions. Testing of these theoretical results with numerous hydrological data sets on several scales validates the applicability of the ME principle, thus emphasizing the dominance of uncertainty in hydrological processes. Both theoretical and empirical results show that the state scaling is only an approximation for the high return periods, which is merely valid when processes have high variation on small time scales. In other cases the normal distributional behaviour, which does not have state scaling properties, is a more appropriate approximation. Interestingly however, as discussed in the second part of the study, the normal distribution combined with positive autocorrelation of a process, results in time scaling behaviour due to the ME principle.  相似文献   

The influence of medium-range transport on O3 levels at a rural site in Israel     

Batia Lifshitz  Mordechai Peleg  Menachem Luria 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1988,7(1):19-33

Simultaneous ozone measurements were made at a rural site, 25 km SSW of the city of Jerusalem, and in the center of the city during a period of 28 months. The ozone data were supplemented by SO₂, NO/NO _x ,and meteorological measurements at both sites. Elevated ozone concentrations were recorded at the rural site, mostly during the spring months (May and June) during which the monthly averages and the monthly averages of the daily 30 min maximum levels equalled those measured in the city. During the summer months, both average and peak levels were lower at the rural site by 20 and 35 ppb. The increased ozone levels at the rural site were accompanied by a parallel increase of SO₂ and NO _x ,suggesting hat the excess ozone at the rural site is a result of a transformation during transport of air pollutants from coastal sources.  相似文献   

Global spectra of energy and enstrophy and their fluxes during July 1979     

S S Desai  S K Mishra 《Journal of Earth System Science》1993,102(2):329-350

Transient and stationary spectra of kinetic energy (KE), available potential energy (APE) and enstrophy (EN), and their spectral fluxes as a function of the two-dimensional wavenumbern were computed for July 1979. Triangular truncation at zonal wavenumber 42 was used for computation. The slopes of various spectra in the wavenumber range 14≤n≤25 were obtained by fitting a straight line in log-log scale by the least square method. The transientKE, APE andEN spectra in the lower (upper) troposphere had slopes −2·21 (−2·30), −2·65 (−2·64) and −0·36 (−0·46), respectively. The effect of stationary and divergent motion on the slope values was investigated. The possible correlation between the slope and percentage of transient component in the combined energy and enstrophy was examined to identify the transient motion of the atmosphere with the two-dimensional homogeneous isotropic turbulence. The vertically averaged slope of kinetic energy and enstrophy in the lower (upper) troposphere was close to the value at 700 (200) hPa level. The spectral fluxes of kinetic energy and enstrophy in the wavenumber range 14≤n≤25 satisfied, to a very rough approximation, the criteria of inertial subrange. The stationary fluxes were small. The estimated stationary-transient component of flux was larger, comparable and less than the corresponding transient flux of APE, KE and EN. Representative levels for computation of energy and enstrophy spectra and their fluxes in the lower and upper troposphere were identified.  相似文献   

水电站水库群模糊优化调度模型与目标协调－模糊规划法   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

谢新民 《水科学进展》1995,6(3):189-197

利用大系统和模糊数学规划理论与方法,分析和探讨了水电站水库群模糊优化调度问题,建立了水电站水库群模糊优化调度模型,提出一种目标协调-模糊规划(IB-FP)法.理论分析和实例计算表明,所建立的模糊优化调度模型和提出的IB-FP法是可行和有效的.  相似文献   

Flood dynamics of a concrete-lined,urban stream in Kansas City,Missouri     

D. M. Vaughn 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1990,15(6):525-537

Brush Creek drains a 76·1 km² watershed within urban Kansas City, Missouri and eastern Kansas. A concrete-lined reach trending 6·1 km through the Plaza District of Kansas City, Missouri has been the focus for several major floods over the past ten years. Channel geometry, slope, and floodwater elevations were determined in the field for segments of the concrete-lined section of Brush Creek for a flood event that occurred on September 18, 1986. Discharge was computed by indirect methods and compared to a value determined from a rating curve established by the Water Resources Division of the U.S.G.S. Boundary shear stress, unit stream power, and average velocity were also computed in order to establish a quantitative relationship between sediment distribution, volume, and size fractions; and flow dynamics operating throughout the channel during this event. Boundary shear stress ranged from 91-96 Nm^?2, stream power was 528-557 Wm^?2, while average velocity was 5-8 ms^?1. These values were sufficient to displace concrete slabs as large as 5 m long by 4·6 m wide by 0·23 m thick weighing an estimated 12 245 kg. As the channel was sediment free and unsecured prior to the flood, the distribution of deposits and subsequent channel scour provide valuable evidence for potentially hazardous sections of this urban stream.  相似文献   

高效防水隔热粉的研制     

王廷吉  徐伟昌 《华东地质学院学报》1994,17(4):384-388

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辽南核电站厂址区断层的评价问题          下载免费PDF全文

李愿军 《地震工程学报》1994,16(3):47-53

作者通过对核安全法规的学习和前人对辽南核电站厂址区断层的调查，并结合对断层实际踏勘，认为厂址区附近的东岗断层属于现行法规（ＨＡＦ０１０１）中规定的能动断层。但是，仅此一点并不能构成对推荐厂址的威胁，因为断层距厂址直线距离约４ｋｍ，断层的地表或近地表错动不会直接影响到核反应堆的安全。  相似文献