Relevance vector machine applied to slope stability analysis     

Hongbo Zhao  Shunde Yin  Zhongliang Ru 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2012,36(5):643-652

This paper examines the potential of relevance vector machine (RVM) in slope stability analysis. The nonlinear relationship between slope stability and its influence factors is presented by the relevance vector learning mechanism based on a kernel‐based Bayesian framework. The six input variables used for the RVM for the prediction of stability slope are density (γ), friction angle (C), friction coefficient (?), slope angle (?_r), slope height (H), and pore water pressure (r_u). Comparison of RVM with some other methods is also presented. RVM has been used to compute the error bar. The results presented in this paper clearly highlight that the RVM is a robust tool for the prediction of slope stability. The experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A Numerical Study of Mesoscale Vortex Formation in the Midlatitudes:The Role of Moist Processes     

Yongqiang JIANG  Yuan WANG  Chaohui CHEN  Hongrang HE  Hong HUANG 《大气科学进展》2019,36(1):65-78

In this study, a three-dimensional mesoscale model was used to numerically simulate the well-known "98.7" heavy rainfall event that affected the Yangtze Valley in July 1998. Two experiments were conducted to analyze the impact of moist processes on the development of meso-β scale vortices(MβV) and their triggering by mesoscale wind perturbation(MWP). In the experiment in which the latent heat feedback(LHF) scheme was switched off, a stable low-level col field(i.e., saddle field—a region between two lows and two highs in the isobaric surface) formed, and the MWP triggered a weak MβV. However, when the LHF scheme was switched on as the MWP was introduced into the model, the MβV developed quickly and intense rainfall and a mesoscale low-level jet(mLLJ) were generated. The thickness of the air column and average temperature between 400 and 700 hPa decreased without the feedback of latent heat, whereas they increased quickly when the LHF scheme was switched on, with the air pressure falling at low levels but rising at upper levels. A schematic representation of the positive feedbacks among the mesoscale vortex, rainfall, and mLLJ shows that in the initial stage of the MβV, the MWP triggers light rainfall and the latent heat occurs at low levels, which leads to weak convergence and ageostrophic winds. In the mature stage of the MβV, convection extends to the middle-to-upper levels, resulting in an increase in the average temperature and a stretching of the air column. A low-level cyclonic circulation forms under the effect of Coriolis torque, and the m LLJ forms to the southeast of the MβV.  相似文献   

多重对级贝叶斯个性化排序算法     

程明月  刘淇  李徵  于润龙  高维博  陈恩红 《南京气象学院学报》2019,11(3):302-308

为解决隐式反馈推荐问题,贝叶斯个性化排序（BPR）模型已经成为最具有代表性的对级（Pairwise）排序算法之一.在BPR模型中,存在一个严格的偏序假设：相较于未标记的物品而言,用户更喜欢已经有过标记行为的物品.本文提出了一种多重对级贝叶斯个性化排序（MBPR）推荐算法来进一步提升用户对物品的偏好预测能力.首先,基于BPR模型的排序关系设计了一种改进的多重对级偏序假设.具体地,对于每一用户,本文提出将未标记的反馈集细分为潜在的负反馈集和不确定性反馈集,并基于改进的对级偏序假设,提出了一种新的多重对级排序的优化目标来学习用户与物品之间的相关性.为实现MBPR模型的采样任务,本文设计了一种自适应采样策略来为模型更新动态地选取训练样本.最后,在公开数据集上开展了仿真推荐实验,并与基线算法对比.实验结果表明,MBPR算法能够取得更好的推荐效果.  相似文献   

2013年北极最小海冰范围比2012年增加的原因分析   总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0  

崔红艳  乔方利  舒启 《海洋学报》2015,37(11):23-32

北极海冰范围从1979年有卫星观测资料以来呈现明显下降趋势,尤其是9月份。2012年9月北极海冰范围达到有观测记录以来的最小值,而2013年9月比2012年同期增加了60%。增加的区域主要在东西伯利亚海区、楚科奇海和波弗特海区。本文应用距平和经验模态分解方法,分析了美国国家冰雪数据中心的北极海冰卫星数据、欧洲预报中心的夏季底层大气环流数据和上层海洋的温度,指出2013年北极最小海冰范围比2012年在北冰洋太平洋扇区增加的原因,是由于表面气温(SAT)降低、海平面气压(SLP)升高、气旋式风场异常、表面空气中水汽含量(SH)降低以及海表面温度(SST)降低5个条件形成的冰-SAT、冰-SST和冰-汽(SH)3个正反馈机制共同作用造成的。  相似文献   

How Are El Ni(n)o and La Ni(n)a Events Improved in an Eddy-Resolving Ocean General Circulation Model?          下载免费PDF全文

HUA Li-Juan  YU Yong-Qiang 《大气和海洋科学快报》2015,8(5)

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基于反馈机制的城市扩张模拟研究进展     

张伟  冯徽徽  毛小岗  钟永生 《地理与地理信息科学》2012,28(2):70-75

回顾了城市扩张模拟的研究进展,发现相关研究在表达城市系统的复杂性特征时存在较多问题,主要原因是未能较好地反映城市扩张与驱动因子间的相互作用与反馈机制。部分研究虽然隐含地考虑了这种"因-果"相互作用关系,但尚未形成一套成熟的框架体系,主要表现在:1)从研究深度看,反馈机制的实现尚无一套系统的方法;2)就研究广度而言,目前城市扩张模拟较少考虑多类别反馈机制的综合作用。新理论与方法(如复杂系统与网络)的引入及模型耦合等是未来基于反馈机制的城市扩张模拟研究的重要方向。  相似文献   

1m红外太阳望远镜光电导行系统的反馈控制分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

邓林华  柳光乾  程向明  李雪宝 《天文研究与技术》2009,6(4)

我国正在研制中的1m红外太阳望远镜是目前国内唯一的地平式真空太阳塔,主要用于活动区磁场的精细光谱分析和太阳活动区磁场的时空精细结构研究.要求望远镜必须长时间高精度跟踪太阳(0.3"/30s、1"/10min)才能实现它的科学目标.光电导行是实现望远镜高精度跟踪观测目标的关键控制技术,通过检测观测目标像在图像传感器上的移动量作为反馈控制信号对望远镜实行闭环控制.首先建立了光电导行系统的控制系统模型,然后分析了系统的稳定性能、暂态性能、时域特性、频域特性及跟踪性能,并采用PID控制器对系统进行优化设计,以提高光电导行反馈控制系统的稳定性和跟踪精度.通过计算机仿真设计,采用PID控制算法能实现1m红外太阳望远镜的跟踪要求.  相似文献   

Cloud radiative forcing of subtropical low level clouds in global models     

Johannes Karlsson  Gunilla Svensson  Henning Rodhe 《Climate Dynamics》2008,30(7-8):779-788

Simulations of subtropical marine low clouds and their radiative properties by nine coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models participating in the fourth assesment report (AR4) of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) are analyzed. Satellite observations of cloudiness and radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) are utilized for comparison. The analysis is confined to the marine subtropics in an attempt to isolate low cloudiness from tropical convective systems. All analyzed models have a negative bias in the low cloud fraction (model mean bias of −15%). On the other hand, the models show an excess of cloud radiative cooling in the region (model mean excess of 13 W m⁻²). The latter bias is shown to mainly originate from too much shortwave reflection by the models clouds rather than biases in the clear-sky fluxes. These results confirm earlier studies, thus no major progress in simulating the marine subtropical clouds is noted. As a consequence of the combination of these two biases, this study suggests that all investigated models are likely to overestimate the radiative response to changes in low level subtropical cloudiness.  相似文献   

强沙尘暴天气过程中的若干问题思考   总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0  

徐国昌 《干旱气象》2008,26(2):9-11

介绍沙尘暴反馈机制观念形成的经验过程,对沙尘暴反馈机制作了进一步讨论,以期引起对沙尘暴成因研究的重视。  相似文献   

年际时间尺度上全球植被与大气相互作用的诊断分析     

李伟平  季劲钧  董文杰 《大气科学》2008,32(1):75-89

利用NOAA AVHRR得到的19年（1982～2000）全球月平均的叶面积指数（LAI）与ERA40近地面气温和CMAP降水进行时滞相关分析,并研究了LAI的年际变化对后期温度、降水的反馈作用。结果表明,大部分地区LAI与同期气温的相关性更好,30°N以北（以南）基本上为正（负）相关。LAI滞后一个月时,北半球中低纬度和20°S以南大部地区LAI与降水的正相关更强;而在北半球中纬度大陆东部和南半球热带地区,LAI与前一个月温度的关系更密切。LAI与温度的相关性在春、秋季最明显,LAI与降水的关系在雨季最密切。LAI对气温比较显著的正反馈主要分布在北半球中高纬度地区;20°S以南大部地区为比较显著的负反馈。LAI对降水比较显著的正反馈分散在北美大陆西北部、东欧平原南部、欧亚大陆东北部和热带沿海地区。中高纬度（尤其是北半球）大部分地区LAI 对气温、降水反馈部分的解释方差达到总方差的20%以上。  相似文献