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91.
利用1979—2016年欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF) ERA-Interim (1°×1°)再分析资料中的经、纬向水汽通量和大气可降水量(precipitation water vapor,PWV)数据,采用相关性分析、趋势分析法、累积距平、IDW等方法,分析三江源地区PWV与水汽通量的时空分布特征、降水转化率(precipitati-on conversion efficiency,PCE)变化规律。结果表明:过去的38 a,经、纬向多年平均水汽通量分别为50. 2、196. 7 kg·m-1·s^(-1),纬向水汽通量气候倾向率比经向大。南边界为纬向主要水汽输入边界,东边界为经向主要水汽输出边界,纬向水汽输送大于经向输送。多年平均PWV为1998. 3 mm,近38 aPWV呈现微弱增加趋势,1979—1997年,PWV呈下降趋势,1998年后PWV呈增加趋势,同期降水也在增加,说明该时段三江源地区气候转湿。PWV与水汽通量的年际变化趋势和转折年相一致。三江源区多年平均PCE为24. 57%,1989年PCE最高,达32. 76%,各季节平均PCE空间分布与年平均PCE分布一致,均表现出南部、东南部高,西部、东北部低的变化特征,各季节PCE大小差异明显,春季多年平均PCE为15. 92%,夏季25. 67%,秋季21. 01%,冬季仅7. 03%。 相似文献
92.
利用1964—2013年河源市5个国家气象站日降水量、NCEP/NCAR逐月2.5°×2.5°再分析资料,分析河源市秋季暴雨的时空分布特征和同期环流特征。结果表明:(1)河源市秋季暴雨日数在空间分布上自南向北逐渐减少,9月的分布特征与秋季一致,11月的分布型与9月完全相反;秋季暴雨日数呈弱增长的气候变化趋势,且存在明显的阶段性变化。(2)南海到西北太平洋地区纬向风垂直切变偏小和南方涛动处在正位相时,对应有利9和10月热带气旋的生成、发展,副热带高压偏西偏北、强度偏强,有利于热带气旋趋向广东,而来自该区的强东南季风,给河源带来充沛的水汽,为暴雨的发生提供了有利的水汽条件。另外,活跃的南支槽也是造成10月暴雨的重要影响系统之一。(3)热带气旋对11月暴雨日数的贡献较小,南支槽和东移南下的高原短波槽是造成该月暴雨的重要影响系统。西太平洋副热带高压偏西偏南、强度偏强,河源受其西侧的异常西南风影响,获得充足的水汽供应,有利于暴雨的发生。(4)秋季华南地区海平面气压偏低或冷空气活动偏弱时,有利于河源暴雨天气的发生。 相似文献
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居民就医时空特征与空间格局反映了医疗设施的服务能力与布局合理性.本文以厦门岛为例,采用出租车轨迹数据,探讨了居民就医的时空特征和空间格局.论文提出了基于道路中心线的研究单元划分方法;提出OD轨迹偏移算法,更精细地提取出三级医院的就医OD数据,改善传统的缓冲区分析法中精确度较低的问题;对居民就医行为进行时空特征分析;基于... 相似文献
95.
为定量评估汇流顶托对水位变化的影响,本文从水文过程仿真及顶托响应评价入手,提出了一种汇流顶托对水位影响的量化分析方法,并以长江汉口江段为例,开展了鄱阳湖汇流顶托对长江汉口江段水位影响的量化评价,结果表明:改进提出的长江汉口江段水文仿真模型,经参数优选后确定性系数可达0.98以上,总量相对误差绝对值在3%以内,较好地再现了水文变化过程;通过响应指数定义及水文过程模拟,研制了汉口多值型水位流量关系响应特征曲线,揭示了鄱阳湖与长江水位变化的关联性机制;经2016和2020年洪水实例分析,汉口江段长历时高洪水位主要受长江来水及鄱阳湖汇流顶托共同驱动,二者合力贡献可达83.3%以上,其中鄱阳湖汇流顶托贡献率在35%左右.其余因素(如区间洪水、沿江排涝等)亦助推高洪水位形成,部分时段贡献可达近34.4%.本文提出的顶托量化分析方法,可定量评估因顶托效应引起的水位变化,为解析河段高洪水位成因机制提供了有效的技术支撑. 相似文献
96.
Stephan Steinke Till J.J. Hanebuth Christoph Vogt Karl Stattegger 《Marine Geology》2008,250(3-4):199-210
Variations in clay mineral composition of sediment cores from the margin and continental slope of the Sunda Shelf (southern South China Sea, SE Asia) covering the past 17,000 yr reflect changing influences of sediment sources together with clay mineral partitioning processes in shallow waters. We identify the deglacial sea level rise as the principal factor driving these changes. During the late glacial, high values of kaolinite are interpreted to reflect a higher contribution of clays from soils that have formed on the exposed Sunda Shelf and in the southern archipelagos of Indonesia. At this time core sites were located in close proximity to the mouths of the Sunda Shelf palaeo-drainage systems on the emerged shelf (“Sundaland”). The progressive landward displacement of the coastline and breakdown of these vast drainage systems during deglaciation led to a decrease in influence of the kaolinite-rich southern sources. When the coastline had retreated closely to its present-day position in mid-Holocene times, the former dominance of southern sources was replaced by a stronger influence of illite-rich sources (e.g. Borneo). The overriding control of sea level changes on the clay mineral distribution patterns precludes a definite climatic interpretation of clay mineral data in terms of climatic/monsoonal changes in such highly dynamic sedimentary environment. 相似文献
97.
Juana Mireya Mendoza-Vera Samba K Corinne Cuoc Marc Bouvy Marc Pagano 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2008,79(4):740-750
Pseudodiaptomus hessei is a key species in many water bodies in the Senegal River hydrosystem but it became rare or completely disappeared from two ecosystems (Lake Guiers and Dakar Bango Reservoir; Senegal, West Africa) after major hydrological changes caused by human action, mainly impoundments on the river in 1985, and the opening of a new estuary mouth in 2003. Kâ et al. [Kâ, S., Pagano, M., Ba, N., Bouvy, M., Leboulanger, C., Arfi, R., Thiaw, O.T., Ndour, E.H.M., Corbin, D., Defaye, D., Cuoc, C., Kouassi, E., 2006. Zooplankton distribution related to environmental factors and phytoplankton in a shallow tropical lake (Lake Guiers, Senegal, West Africa). International Review of Hydrobiology 91(5), 389–405] put forward several hypotheses to explain the reasons for this decline: salinity and chemical changes in the water, predation by a cyclopid predator Mesocyclops ogunnus and/or the inhibiting effects of cyanobacteria and/or diatoms (allelopathy). This study assessed these hypotheses by studying the distribution of P. hessei in 13 stations (including the Dakar Bango reservoir and Lake Guiers) in relation to physical, chemical and biological (phyto- and zooplanktons) factors at each station. We produced a distribution pattern for this species in the Senegal River hydrosystem. Rank correlations and principal component analysis showed that P. hessei was not correlated with conductivity but was positively correlated with pH and alkalinity, suggesting chemical effects. The clear association with two filamentous cyanobacteria (Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii and Anabaena sp.) did not appear to support the hypothesis of cyanobacteria inhibition but blooming conditions were never encountered during the study. Negative correlation with diatoms (especially with Fragilaria sp.) suggested that aldehyde producing diatoms had a negative effect. Negative correlations with cyclopids such as Mesocyclops supported the hypothesis of cyclopid predation to explain the decline of P. hessei. This study proposes several lines of research for future studies to test these hypotheses. 相似文献
98.
Statistical analysis and forecasts of long-term sandbank evolution at Great Yarmouth, UK 总被引:4,自引:1,他引:3
Dominic E. Reeve Jos M. Horrillo-Caraballo Vanesa Magar 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2008,79(3):387-399
A data-driven model has been developed to analyse the long-term evolution of a sandbank system and to make ensemble predictions in a period of 8 years. The method uses a combination of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, (to define spatial and temporal patterns of variability), jack-knife resampling, (to generate an ensemble of EOFs), a causal auto-regression technique, (to extrapolate the temporal eigenfunctions), and straightforward statistical analysis of the resulting ensemble of predictions to determine a ‘forecast’ and associated uncertainty. The methodology has been applied to a very demanding site which includes a curved shoreline and a group of mobile nearshore sandbanks. The site is on the eastern coast of the UK and includes the Great Yarmouth sandbanks and neighbouring shoreline. A sequence of 33 high quality historical survey charts reaching back to 1848 have been used to analyse the patterns and to predict morphological evolution of the sandbank system. The forecasts demonstrate an improved skill relative to an assumption of persistence, but suffer in locations where there are propagating features in the morphology that are not well-described by EOFs. 相似文献
99.
100.