Thirty borehole temperature–depth profiles in the central and southern Urals, Russia were scrutinized for evidence of ground surface temperature histories. We explored two inversion schemes: a simple ramp inversion in which solutions are parameterized in terms of an onset time and magnitude of change and a more sophisticated functional space inverse algorithm in which the functional form of the solution is left unspecified. To enhance and potentially identify latitudinal differences in the ground surface temperature signal, we subdivided the data into three groups based on geographic proximity and simultaneously inverted the borehole temperature–depth logs. The simultaneous inversions highlighted 13 temperature–depth logs that could not both fit a common ground surface temperature history and a priori models within reasonable bounds. Our results confirm that this is an effective way to reduce site-specific noise from an ensemble of boreholes. Each inversion scheme gives comparable results indicating locally variable warming on the order of 1°C starting between 1800 and 1900 AD. Similarly surface air temperature records from 12 nearby meteorological stations exhibit locally variable warming also on the order of 1°C of warming during the 20th century. To explore the degree to which borehole temperatures and surface air temperature (SAT) time series are responding to the same signal, we average the SAT data into the same three groups and used these averages as a forcing function at the Earth's surface to generate synthetic transient temperature profiles. Root mean square (RMS) misfits between these synthetic temperature profiles and averaged temperature–depth profiles are low, suggesting that first-order curvature in borehole temperatures and variations in SAT records are correlated. 相似文献
Warming of the northeast Atlantic is expected to affect the location and productivity of fish stocks. It is examined whether variations in catches of cod, herring, mackerel, anchovy and sardines in the ICES statistical areas are related to variations in ocean temperature. Temperatures at certain locations along the Norwegian coast are taken as proxies for temperatures in the Norwegian Sea and the North Sea. It is found that the catches of cod in the North Sea are inversely correlated with temperature and that recruitment and catches of cod in the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea are positively related to temperature. There is also some indication of a positive correlation between temperature and the catches of mackerel in the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea, and between temperature and the catches of sardines in the North Sea. 相似文献
Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.
An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO2 concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO2 concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.
The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion. 相似文献
Tide gauges distributed all over the world provide valuable information for monitoring mean sea level changes. The statistical models used in estimating sea level change from the tide gauge data assume implicitly that the random model components are stationary in variance. We show that for a large number of global tide gauge data this is not the case for the seasonal part using a variate-differencing algorithm. This finding is important for assessing the reliability of the present estimates of mean sea level changes because nonstationarity of the data may have marked impact on the sea level rate estimates, especially, for the data from short records. 相似文献
In the central part of the East China Sea, the activity of CO2 in the surface water and total carbonate, pH and alkalinity in the water column were determined in winter and autumn of 1993.
The activity of CO2 in the continental shelf water was about 50 ppm lower than that of surface air. This decrease corresponds to the absorption
of about 40 gC/m2/yr of atmospheric CO2 in the coastal zone or 1 GtC/yr in the global continental shelf, if this rate is applicable to entire coastal seas. The normalized
total carbonate contents were higher in the water near the coast and near the bottom. This increase toward the bottom may
be due to the organic matter deposited on the bottom. This conclusion is supported by the distribution of pH. The normalized
alkalinity distribution also showed higher values in the near-coast water, but in the surface water, indicating the supply
of bicarbonate from river water. The residence time of the East China Sea water, including the Yellow Sea water, has been
calculated to be about 0.8 yr from the excess alkalinity and the alkalinity input. Using this residence time and the excess
carbonate, we can estimate that the amount of dissolved carbonate transported from the coastal zone to the oceanic basin is
about 70 gC/m2/yr or 2 GtC/yr/area-of-global-continental-shelf. This also means that the rivers transport carbon to the oceans at a rate
of 30 gC/m2/yr of the coastal sea or 0.8 GtC/yr/ area-of-global shelf, the carbon consisting of dissolved inorganic carbonate and terrestrial
organic carbon decomposed on the continental shelf. 相似文献
This study delineates the formation of a warm pool (>34°C) of air to the west (downwind) of the active volcano of the Barren Island during October–November 2005. Barren Island is located in the Sumatra–Andaman region, about 135 km east of Port Blair, and lies within the Burma microplate, the southern tip of which experienced a submarine earthquake (Mw 9.3) causing a tsunami in December 2004. Barren Island is the only volcano, which has shown sustained eruptive activity since shortly after the Great Sumatran Earthquake of December 2004. Our observations require further corroboration to relate how submarine earthquakes activate volcanoes and how far these thermal emissions influence climate changes. Because it links global warming and climate changes to the frequent emissions from a volcano activated by submarine earthquakes, this case study is of special interest to the earth-ocean-atmosphere sciences community. 相似文献
In order to investigate the validity of buoy-observed sea surface temperature (SST), we installed special instruments to measure
near-surface ocean temperature on the TRITON buoy moored at 2.07°N, 138.06°E from 2 to 13 March 2004, in addition to a standard
buoy sensor for the regular SST measurement at 1.5-m depth. Large diurnal SST variations were observed during this period,
and the variations of the temperatures at about 0.3-m depth could be approximately simulated by a one-dimensional numerical
model. However, there was a notable discrepancy between the buoy-observed 1.5-m-depth SST (SST1.5m) and the corresponding model-simulated temperature only during the daytime when the diurnal rise was large. The evaluation
of the heat balance in the sea surface layer showed that the diurnal rise of the SST1.5m in these cases could not be accounted for by solar heating alone. We examined the depth of the SST1.5m sensor and the near-surface temperature observed from a ship near the buoy, and came to the conclusion that the solar heating
of the buoy hull and/or a disturbance in the temperature field around the buoy hull would contribute to the excessive diurnal
rise of the SST1.5m observed with the TRITON buoy. However, the temperature around the hull was not sufficiently homogenized, as suggested in
a previous paper. For the diurnal rise of the SST1.5m exceeding 0.5 K, the daytime buoy data became doubtful, through dynamics that remain to be clarified. A simple formula is
proposed to correct the unexpected diurnal amplitude of the buoy SST1.5m. 相似文献
The global weather of today is growing significantly warmer; this is an indisputable fact. However, the scientific community
has not yet reached consensus on the causes of global warming and its possible consequences. This paper introduces the causes
of global warming and summarizes its results, which both involve a series of huge and complex system issues. Our top priority
is to pinpoint the main reason and the interrelated links between causative factors by adopting a macro-approach, or comprehensive
comparison analysis. Its physical mechanism was then determined and its digital model established after quantitative study.
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Translated from Green Leaf, 2007, (8): 34–35 [译自: 绿叶] 相似文献
The results of precision temperature logs made to depths of several hundred meters in some 80 wells in Western Canada, most of which are located in the Prairie Provinces, show evidence of warming at the ground surface in the 0.5 K to 3.5 K range (average=2.2±0.7 K, for 80 unevenly distributed sites). Modeling shows that this warming mostly pertains to this century and it has been most substantal in the last four decades if the ramp function of the linear increase of surface temperature is assumed. Using the step function model's increase of surface temperature (land clearing, forest fires, etc.) the calculated onset of warming would pertain mostly to the last two decades. Contour maps of ground temperatures currently and previously and a contour map of the ground warming magnitude dilineate a large regional character of the ground temperature change at the southern marigin of permafrost for the large area of the Prairie Provinces. In many cases however, the magnitude of ground warming is much larger than the magnitude of air warming. This is especially evident for the northern areas of Alberta in the boreal forest ecoprovince. The magnitude of ground warming is equal to the magnitude of surface air warming in southern Alberta in the grassland and aspen parkland ecoprovinces. The analysis of the temperature depth response to the surface warming from well data shows the integrated effect of surface air warming together with the increases in ground temperature due to natural terrain effects and other anthropogenical changes to the surface of the earth. 相似文献