Long-Term Trend and Abrupt Change for Major Climate Variables in the Upper Yellow River Basin   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

ZHAO Fangfang  XU Zongxue  HUANG Junxiong 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2007,21(2):204-214

On the basis of the mean air temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration, and pan evaporation from 23 meteorological stations in the upper Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2001, the feasibility of using hypothesis test techniques to detect the long-term trend for major climate variables has been investigated. Parametric tests are limited by the assumptions such as the normality and constant variance of the error terms. Nonparametric tests have not these additional assumptions and are better adapted to the trend test for hydro-meteorological time series. The possible trends of annual and monthly climatic time series are detected by using a non-parametric method and the abrupt changes have been examined in terms of 5-yr moving averaged seasonal and annual series by using moving T-test (MTT) method, Yamamoto method, and Mann-Kendall method. The results show that the annual mean temperature has increased by 0.8℃in the upper Yellow River Basin during the past 42 years. The warmest center was located in the northern part of the basin. The nonlinear tendency for annual precipitation was negative during the same period. The declining center for annual precipitation was located in the eastern part and the center of the basin. The variation of annual precipitation in the upper Yellow River Basin during the past 42 years exhibited an increasing tendency from 1972 to 1989 and a decreasing tendency from 1990 to 2001. The nonlinear tendencies for annual sunshine duration and pan evaporation were also negative. They have decreased by 125.6 h and 161.3 mm during the past 42 years, respectively. The test for abrupt changes by using MTT method shows that an abrupt wanning occurred in the late 1980s. An abrupt change of the annual mean precipitation occurred in the middle 1980s and an abrupt change of the mean sunshine duration took place in the early 1980s. For the annual mean pan evaporation, two abrupt changes took place in the 1980s and the early 1990s. The test results of the Yamamoto method show that the abrupt changes mostly occurred in the 1980s, and two acute abrupt changes were tested for the spring pan evaporation in 1981 and for the annual mean temperature in 1985. According to the Mann-Kendall method, the abrupt changes of the temperature mainly occurred in the 1990s, the pan evaporation abrupt changes mostly occurred in the 1960s, and the abrupt changes of the sunshine duration primarily took place in the 1980s. Although the results obtained by using three methods are different, it is undoubted that jumps have indeed occurred in the last four decades.  相似文献   

浅析环境地球化学的研究现状   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

龙莎莎  谈树成  蒋顺德 《云南地理环境研究》2005,17(Z1):81-85

环境地球化学是研究环境中化学物质迁移转化规律及其与环境质量和人类健康关系的学科.在其短短30年的发展历程中,历经了环境地球化学与健康、环境地球化学与污染及环境地球化学与全球环境变化3个阶段的研究.由于它是一个新兴的学科和研究对象的复杂性,目前还存在着学科交叉深度与广度的不够、化学物质动态监测不及时、与GIS的结合还不够等一些问题.但是,凭借其良好的发展势头,环境地球化学为改善人类生存与发展的生态环境和促进入类社会的可持续发展承担着艰巨的任务并发挥了巨大的作用.  相似文献   

新疆气候与环境的过去,现在及未来情景   总被引：9，自引：2，他引：7  

姜逢清  胡汝骥 《干旱区地理》1998,21(1):1-9

在分析近年来新疆地质时期与历史时期气候与环境研究方面大量的文献资料与成果,并对现代器测时期的气候变化问题进行讨论的基础上,利用综合分析法构画了新疆下世纪上半叶气候与环境的可能情景,认为新疆气候与环境初期于的晚白垩世,主要形成于第三三纪,至今总的干旱情并未改变。  相似文献   

地震间隙图像与地震大趋势   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

王周元  何少林  彭伟荣  姬凤英 《地震工程学报》1998,20(4):57-62

分析了几个区域的地震间隙图像特征及其与地震大形势的关系。本世纪６０年代前全球 历了大震活跃期,地震间隙基本保持平稳均匀分布,之后活动减弱、转平静。  相似文献   

徐州市大气环境质量演化规律分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

周东来 《地质灾害与环境保护》1998,9(3):50-55

通过几年来对徐州市大气中二氧化硫,氮氧化物,总悬浮微粒,降尘,硫酸盐化速率等几种主要污染物演化规律的分析,阐述本区大气污染物的来源,并对大气环境质量作出初步评价,论证本区大气环境污染特征及演化趋势,为今后大气环境质量管理提供科学依据。  相似文献   

吉林东部延吉地区中生代火山岩地球化学特征     

张洪武  王泽利  李明哲 《世界地质》1998,(2)

吉林东部延吉地区大面积出露的中生代火山岩,根据岩性特征可分为三个火山喷发旋回。各旋回火山岩均属ＳｉＯ２过饱和的中基性—中酸性岩类。从第一旋回至第三旋回岩石碱度变化较大,岩浆分异明显,特别是第三旋回分异作用明显高于第一、二旋回。火山岩中金、铜微量元素的平均含量普遍高于同类岩石的克拉克值几倍至几十倍,而且随着岩浆分异程度的升高,其平均含量有明显升高的趋势,为本区金、铜矿床的形成提供了物质来源。  相似文献   

内蒙古达拉特旗平原区第四纪沉积环境及找水方向研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

闫俊萍  任增平 《中国煤田地质》1998,10(2):27-30

通过大量的植物孢粉、Ｃ１４、水土样等样品的取样测试,分析了黄河断陷盆地的形成与发展,重点研究了达拉特旗平原区主要供水目的层—第四纪地层的沉积环境,结合其它勘察手段取得的成果,指出找水方向应为罕台川以西山前地带承压水及罕台川冲、洪积扇与黄河近岸潜水最为理想。  相似文献   

Monitoring,causality, and uncertainty in a stratospheric context     

A. Barrie Pittock 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1980,118(1):643-660

Our increasingly complex understanding of stratospheric chemistry and transport processes leaves us with various theoretical possibilities of appreciable and perhaps serious environmental impact due to human activities. These possibilities raise policy questions in which the economic and other costs of regulating human activities must be weighed against the possible consequences of no such regulation. The natural variability of the atmosphere, the physical and other limitations on our global sampling and monitoring abilities, and the difficulties in establishing causal connections leave us in a state of uncertainty as to the reality and magnitude of at least some of these theoretical environmental impacts. Policy-makers must make decisions in the face of these uncertainties.The proper role of scientists as such in narrowing and quantifying the uncertainties is discussed, with particular regard to the evidence that cultural and other biases often affect individual scientists' conclusions. Conscious efforts are needed to minimize bias, quantify uncertainties, and speed up the process of scientific consensus-building. A careful distinction should be drawn between scientifically determined probabilities, and cost-benefit analyses which necessarily involve value judgments.  相似文献   

A Three-year Study of Nonmethane Hydrocarbons in Surface Air over Saxony (Germany)     

Thomas Gnauk  Wolfgang Rolle 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1998,30(3):371-395

Measurements of the nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) mixing ratio over a period of 42 months were carried out for the first time in the air of a research station situated in the former East Germany during the SANA project. Apart from four species, all other species analysed showed a statistically significant downward trend at the 95% significance level. The decrease of the hydrocarbon concentrations was superimposed by seasonal variations. A drop of about 40% of the annual mean values from 1993 to 1995 was observed. This development reflects the dramatic changes in traffic, industry, power economy, and agriculture in Saxony after the reunification of Germany. The remove of two-stroke engined cars is reflected in NMHC mixing ratio changes, as is the removal of obsolete chemical plants. Generally it was not possible to relate causes and effects of a single event, but in some cases major changes in concentrations and NMHC ratios occurred coincidentally with the disappearance of a specific emission source.  相似文献   

陕西省人工神经元网络降水年,季度预报系统   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

田武文  王玉玺 《高原气象》1998,17(3):317-322

利用Ｂ－Ｐ人工神经元网络进行了陕西省年度,季度降水预报试验,提出了利用０－１模型解决多等级预报问题的方法,并建立了年度,季度等级预报模型,经过试验,表明该方法预报效果良好,最后对模式在应用中的一些问题及目前其它预报模型的差异等进行了讨论。  相似文献