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111.
1. IntroductionAccording to the reconstruction of paleo-temperature based on δ18 O data of ice core in theGreenland (see Jouzel et al., 1987; Grootes et al.,1993; Blunier and Brook, 2001), the current inter-glacial epoch, the Holocene, began at ca. 11.5 thou-sand years before present (ka BP). Multiple sources(pollen data, macrofossils) reveal that the summer cli-mate in the Northern Hemisphere was warmer in theearly to middle Holocene (MH) (ca. 8-6ka BP) relativeto the present climate. …  相似文献   
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The confounding effects of step change invalidate the stationarity assumption of commonly used trend analysis methods such as the Mann–Kendall test technique, so previous studies have failed to explain inconsistencies between detected trends and observed large precipitation anomalies. The objectives of this study were to (1) formulate a trend analysis approach that considers nonstationarity due to step changes, (2) use this approach to detect trends and extreme occurrences of precipitation in a mid‐latitude Eurasian steppe watershed in North China, and (3) examine how runoff responds to precipitation trends in the study watershed. Our results indicate that annual precipitation underwent a marginal step jump around 1995. The significant annual downward trend after 1994 was primarily due to a decrease in summer rainfall; other seasons exhibited no significant precipitation trends. At a monthly scale, July rainfall after 1994 exhibited a significant downward trend, whereas precipitation in other months had no trend. The percentage of wet days also underwent a step jump around 1994 following a significant decreasing trend, although the precipitation intensity exhibited neither a step change nor any significant trend. However, both low‐frequency and high‐frequency precipitation events in the study watershed occurred more often after than before 1994; probably as either a result or an indicator of climate change. In response to these precipitation changes, the study watershed had distinctly different precipitation‐runoff relationships for observed annual precipitations of less than 300 mm, between 300 and 400 mm, and greater than 400 mm. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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This paper focuses on the relationship between the phase transition of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and decadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in the twentieth century. The first transition occurred in the 1940s, with an enhanced SST in the North Pacific and reduced SST in the tropical eastern Pacific and South Indian Ocean. In agreement with these SST changes, a higher SLP was found in most parts of the Pacific, while a lower SLP was found in the North Pacific and most parts of the Indian Ocean. In this case, the EASM was largely enhanced with a southerly anomaly in the lower troposphere along the east coast of China. Correspondingly, there was less rainfall in the Yangtze River valley and more rainfall in northern and southern China. An opposite change was found when the PDO reversed its phase in the late 1970s. In the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific, however, the SST was enhanced in both the 1940s and 1970s. As a result, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) tended to extend westward with a larger magnitude in the 1970s. The major features were reasonably reproduced by an atmospheric general circulation model (IAP AGCM4.0) prescribed with observed SST and sea ice. On the other hand, the westward extension of the WPSH was exaggerated in the 1970s, while it was underestimated in the 1940s. Besides, the spatial pattern of the simulated summer rainfall in eastern China tended to shift southward compared with the observation.  相似文献   
116.
The combined impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) on the summer rainfall in eastern China was investigated using CCSM4. The strongest signals occur with the combination of a positive PDO and a negative AMO(+PDO- AMO), as well as a negative PDO and a positive AMO(-PDO + AMO). For the +PDO- AMO set, significant positive rainfall anomalies occur over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley(YR),when the East Asian summer monsoon becomes weaker, while the East Asian westerly jet stream becomes stronger, and ascending motion over the YR becomes enhanced due to the jet-related secondary circulation. Contrary anomalies occur over East Asia for the-PDO + AMO set. The influence of these two combinations of PDO and AMO on the summer rainfall in eastern China can also be observed in the two interdecadal rainfall changes in eastern China in the late 1970 s and late 1990 s.  相似文献   
117.
The Gulf of Guinea in the equatorial Atlantic is characterized by the presence of strong subsidence at certain times of the year. This subsidence appears in June and becomes well established from July to September. Since much of theWest African monsoon flow originates over the Gulf, Guinean subsidence is important for determining moisture sources for the monsoon. Using reanalysis products, I contribute to a physical understanding of what causes this seasonal subsidence, and how it relates to precipitation distributions across West Africa.There is a seasonal zonal overturning circulation above the Congo basin and the Gulf of Guinea in the ERA-Interim, ERA-40, NCEP2, and MERRA reanalyses. The up-branch is located in the Congo basin around 20°E. Mid-tropospheric easterly flows constitute the returning-branch and sinking over the Gulf of Guinea forms the down-branch, which diverges at 2°W near the surface, with winds to the east flowing eastward to complete the circulation. This circulation is driven by surface temperature differences between the eastern Gulf and Congo basin. Land temperatures remain almost uniform, around 298 K, throughout a year, but the Guinean temperatures cool rapidly from 294 K in May to about 290 K in August. These temperature changes increase the ocean/land temperature contrast, up to 8 K, and drive the circulation.I hypothesize that when the overturning circulation is anomalously strong, the northward moisture transport and Sahelian precipitation are also strong. This hypothesis is supported by ERA-Interim and PERSIANN-CDR (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record) data.  相似文献   
118.
中国南海夏季风强、弱年多尺度相互作用能量学特征   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
杨悦  徐邦琪  何金海 《气象学报》2016,74(4):556-571
中国南海夏季风为东亚季风的主要系统之一,其具有多重尺度特征,除季节平均环流场外,低频(季节内振荡)和高频(天气尺度)扰动也十分活跃,各尺度系统存在明显的年际变化。该研究使用ERA-Interim和NCEP/NCAR两套再分析资料,从季风平均动能(MKE)诊断的角度出发,探讨了1979-2010年中国南海夏季风环流年际变化的能量来源及其和扰动场的相互作用过程。结果表明:中国南海夏季风对流活跃年份,中国南海南部(12°N以南)及中南半岛一带为季风平均动能显著增强区,此与南亚季风区西风急流的增强并向东延伸有关;中国南海北部(12°N以北)及西太平洋为气旋性环流盘踞,季风槽加深。中国南海南部季风平均动能增强的能量源自于扰动动量通量与平均环流的相互作用,强季风年,平均环流失去较少的动能给扰动场(亦即平均环流保留较多的动能)。通过进一步探讨高频(<10 d)及低频(10-90 d)扰动场与平均环流不同分量的(散度、涡度、风垂直切变)相互作用过程,发现季风平均动能的增长主要来自于<10 d扰动与季风平均散度和涡度的相互作用。中国南海北部季风槽区季风平均动能的维持来自于大气热源和平均上升运动的相互作用,但同时有较多的季风平均动能向扰动动能转换,有利于扰动的成长。因此,强季风年,中国南海北部热带气旋生成数目增多,夏季北传的季节内振荡也增强,导致中国南部沿海及华南地区出现较多的灾害天气。   相似文献   
119.
利用1961-2013年中国地面台站长期观测资料和同期NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,以华北、江淮和华南为研究区,分析了中国中东部冬季霾日的形成与东亚冬季风以及大气湿度的关系。结果表明:(1)冬季霾日与东亚冬季风强度成显著的负相关。首先,东亚冬季风强度的减弱使得地面风速减小,进而导致冬季霾日增多。其中,华北7-8 m/s最大风速日数和江淮6-8 m/s最大风速日数的减少,及华南≤2 m/s最大风速日数的增多对各区冬季霾日的增多作用较大。其次,东亚冬季风减弱引起冬季气温的持续升高,易导致冬季霾日的增多,这在华北地区较之在江淮和华南更为明显。(2)由于气候变暖,冬季气温升高,使得近地面相对湿度减小。在江淮和华南地区,冬季霾日的增多与近地面相对湿度的减小显著相关,而在华北地区这种相关较弱。(3)冬季气温升高也有利于大气层结稳定度的增强,3个区域冬季霾日的增多均与大气层结稳定度的增强显著相关,特别是与对流层中低层(850-500 hPa)大气饱和度的降低显著相关。(4)冬季霾日数变化与区域水汽输送关系密切。其中,华北地区的冬季霾日数与水汽总收入成显著正相关,江淮地区与纬向水汽收入成显著正相关,与经向水汽收入成显著负相关,华南地区与经向水汽收入成显著负相关。  相似文献   
120.
A detailed study of long-term variability of winds using 30 years of data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts global reanalysis (ERA-Interim) over the Indian Ocean has been carried out by partitioning the Indian Ocean into six zones based on local wind extrema. The trend of mean annual wind speed averaged over each zone shows a significant increase in the equatorial region, the Southern Ocean, and the southern part of the trade winds. This indicates that the Southern Ocean winds and the southeast trade winds are becoming stronger. However, the trend for the Bay of Bengal is negative, which might be caused by a weakening of the monsoon winds and northeast trade winds. Maximum interannual variability occurs in the Arabian Sea due to monsoon activity; a minimum is observed in the subtropical region because of the divergence of winds. Wind speed variations in all zones are weakly correlated with the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). However, the equatorial Indian Ocean, the southern part of the trade winds, and subtropical zones show a relatively strong positive correlation with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), indicating that the SOI has a zonal influence on wind speed in the Indian Ocean. Monsoon winds have a decreasing trend in the northern Indian Ocean, indicating monsoon weakening, and an increasing trend in the equatorial region because of enhancement of the westerlies. The negative trend observed during the non-monsoon period could be a result of weakening of the northeast trade winds over the past few decades. The mean flux of kinetic energy of wind (FKEW) reaches a minimum of about 100?W?m?2 in the equatorial region and a maximum of about 1500?W?m?2 in the Southern Ocean. The seasonal variability of FKEW is large, about 1600?W?m?2, along the coast of Somalia in the northern Indian Ocean. The maximum monthly variability of the FKEW field averaged over each zone occurs during boreal summer. During the onset and withdrawal of monsoon, FKEW is as low as 50?W?m?2. The Southern Ocean has a large variation of about 1280?W?m?2 because of strong westerlies throughout the year.  相似文献   
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