Ocean current estimation using a Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter during the Grand Lagrangian Deployment experiment (GLAD)     

《Ocean Modelling》2015

In the summer and fall of 2012, during the GLAD experiment in the Gulf of Mexico, the Consortium for Advanced Research on Transport of Hydrocarbon in the Environment (CARTHE) used several ocean models to assist the deployment of more than 300 surface drifters. The Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) at 1 km and 3 km resolutions, the US Navy operational NCOM at 3 km resolution (AMSEAS), and two versions of the Hybrid Coordinates Ocean Model (HYCOM) set at 4 km were running daily and delivering 72-h range forecasts. They all assimilated remote sensing and local profile data but they were not assimilating the drifter’s observations. This work presents a non-intrusive methodology named Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter that allows assimilating the local drifter data into such a set of models, to produce improved ocean currents forecasts. The filter is to be used when several modeling systems or ensembles are available and/or observations are not entirely handled by the operational data assimilation process. It allows using generic in situ measurements over short time windows to improve the predictability of local ocean dynamics and associated high-resolution parameters of interest for which a forward model exists (e.g. oil spill plumes). Results can be used for operational applications or to derive enhanced background fields for other data assimilation systems, thus providing an expedite method to non-intrusively assimilate local observations of variables with complex operators. Results for the GLAD experiment show the method can improve water velocity predictions along the observed drifter trajectories, hence enhancing the skills of the models to predict individual trajectories.  相似文献   

Limitations of suction‐controlled triaxial tests in the characterization of unsaturated soils          下载免费PDF全文

X. Zhang 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2016,40(2):269-296

Behavior of unsaturated soils is influenced by many factors, and the influences of these factors are usually coupled together. Suction‐controlled triaxial (SCTX) tests are considered to allow researchers to investigate influences of individual variables on unsaturated soils under specified stress path with controls of stresses, pore water, and air pressures. In the past 50 years, SCTX testing method has been established as a standard approach to characterize constitutive behavior of unsaturated soils. Most important concepts for modern unsaturated soil mechanics were developed upon results from the SCTX tests. Among these, one of the most important contributions in the constitutive modeling of elasto‐plastic behavior for unsaturated soils is the Barcelona basic model (BBM) proposed by Alonso et al. in 1990. The BBM successfully explained many features of unsaturated soils and received extensive acceptance. However, the SCTX tests are designed based upon the divide‐and‐conquer approach in which an implicit assumption is used: soil behavior is stress‐path independent. However, it is well‐established that unsaturated soil behavior is elasto‐plastic and stress‐path dependent. It is found that the SCTX tests in fact cannot control the stress path of an unsaturated soil during loading. This incapability, in combination with complicated loading/collapse behavior of unsaturated soils, makes the SCTX tests for characterizing unsaturated soil questionable. This paper discusses the limitations of the SCTX tests in the characterization of unsaturated soils. A possible solution to the problem was proposed based on a newly developed modified state surface approach. The discussions are limited for isotropic conditions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Numerical simulation of agricultural sediment and pesticide runoff: RZWQM and PRZM comparison          下载免费PDF全文

Huajin Chen  Xuyang Zhang  Christopher Demars  Minghua Zhang 《水文研究》2017,31(13):2464-2476

Agricultural sediment and pesticide runoff is a widespread ecological and human health concern. Numerical simulation models, such as Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM) and Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), have been increasingly used to quantify off‐site agricultural pollutant movement. However, RZWQM has been criticized for its inability to simulate sedimentation processes. The recent incorporation of the sedimentation module of Groundwater Loading Effects of Agricultural Management Systems has enabled RZWQM to simulate sediment and sediment‐associated pesticides. This study compares the sediment and pesticide transport simulation performance of the newly released RZWQM and PRZM using runoff data from 2 alfalfa fields in Davis, California. A composite metric (based on coefficient of determination, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, index of agreement, and percent bias) was developed and employed to ensure robust, comprehensive assessment of model performance. Results showed that surface water runoff was predicted reasonably well (absolute percent bias <31%) by RZWQM and PRZM after adjusting important hydrologic parameters. Even after calibration, underestimation bias (?89% ≤ PBIAS  ≤ ?36%) for sediment yield was observed in both models. This might be attributed to PRZM's incorrect distribution of input water and uncertainty in RZWQM's runoff erosivity coefficient. Moreover, the underestimation of sediment might be less if the origin of measured sediment was considered. Chlorpyrifos losses were simulated with reasonable accuracy especially for Field A (absolute PBIAS  ≤ 22%), whereas diuron losses were underestimated to a great extent (?98% ≤ PBIAS  ≤ ?65%) in both models. This could be attributed to the underprediction of herbicide concentration in the top soil due to the limitations of the instantaneous equilibrium sorption model as well as the high runoff potential of herbicide formulated as water‐dispersible granules. RZWQM and PRZM partitioned pesticides into the water and sediment phases similarly. According to model predictions, the majority of pesticide loads were carried via the water phase. On the basis of this study, both RZWQM and PRZM performed well in predicting runoff that carried highly adsorptive pesticides on an event basis, although the more physically based RZWQM is recommended when field‐measured soil hydraulic properties are available.  相似文献   

Diagnosing snow accumulation errors in a rain‐snow transitional environment with snow board observations          下载免费PDF全文

Nicholas E. Wayand  Martyn P. Clark  Jessica D. Lundquist 《水文研究》2017,31(2):349-363

Diagnosing the source of errors in snow models requires intensive observations, a flexible model framework to test competing hypotheses, and a methodology to systematically test the dominant snow processes. We present a novel process‐based approach to diagnose model errors through an example that focuses on snow accumulation processes (precipitation partitioning, new snow density, and snow compaction). Twelve years of meteorological and snow board measurements were used to identify the main source of model error on each snow accumulation day. Results show that modeled values of new snow density were outside observational uncertainties in 52% of days available for evaluation, while precipitation partitioning and compaction were in error 45% and 16% of the time, respectively. Precipitation partitioning errors mattered more for total winter accumulation during the anomalously warm winter of 2014–2015, when a higher fraction of precipitation fell within the temperature range where partition methods had the largest error. These results demonstrate how isolating individual model processes can identify the primary source(s) of model error, which helps prioritize future research.  相似文献   

A numerical study of mechanical behavior of a cement paste under mechanical loading and chemical leaching          下载免费PDF全文

Y. Jia  H.B. Bian  S.Y. Xie  N. Burlion  J.F. Shao 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2017,41(18):1848-1869

Based on relevant experimental data of a petroleum cement paste under mechanical loading and chemical leaching, an elastic‐plastic model is first proposed by taking into account plastic shearing and pore collapse. The degradation of mechanical properties induced by the chemical leaching is characterized by a chemical damage variable which is defined as the increase of porosity. Both elastic and plastic properties of the cement paste are affected by the chemical damage. The proposed model is calibrated from and applied to describe mechanical responses in triaxial compression tests respectively on sound and fully leached samples. In the second part, a phenomenological chemical model is defined to establish the relationship between porosity change and calcium dissolution process. The dissolution kinetics is governed by a diffusion law taking into account the variation of diffusion coefficient with calcium concentration. The chemical model is coupled with the mechanical model, and both are applied to describe mechanical response of cement paste samples subjected to progressive chemical leaching and compressive stresses. Comparisons between experimental data and numerical results are presented.  相似文献   

Generalized plasticity state parameter‐based model for saturated and unsaturated soils. Part II: Unsaturated soil modeling     

Diego Manzanal  Manuel Pastor  José Antonio Fernández Merodo 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2011,35(18):1899-1917

The aim of this paper is to extend the generalized plasticity state parameter‐based model presented in part 1 to reproduce the hydro‐mechanical behavior of unsaturated soils. The proposed model is based on two pairs of stress–strain variables and a suitable hardening law taking into account the bonding—debonding effect of suction and degree of saturation. A generalized state parameter for unsaturated state is proposed to reproduce soil behavior using a single set of material parameters. Generalized plasticity gives a suitable framework to reproduce not only monotonic stress path but also cyclic behavior. The hydraulic hysteresis during a drying—wetting cycle and the void ratio effect on the hydraulic behavior is introduced. Comparison between model simulations and a series of experimental data available, both cohesive and granular, are given to illustrate the accuracy of the enhanced generalized plasticity equation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A bounding surface model for anisotropically overconsolidated clay incorporating thermodynamics admissible rotational hardening rule     

Yanni Chen  Zhongxuan Yang 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(5):668-690

A bounding surface model is formulated to simulate the behavior of clays that are subject to an anisotropic consolidation stress history. Conventional rotational hardening is revisited from the perspective of thermodynamics. As the free energy cannot be accumulated infinitely upon critical state failure, the deviatoric back stress must vanish. This requires the rotated yield surface to be turned back to eventually align on the hydrostatic axis in the stress plane. Noting that most of the previous propositions violate this restriction, an innovative rotational hardening rule is formulated that is thermodynamically admissible. The bounding surface framework that employs the modified yield surface is applied to simulate elastoplastic deformations for overconsolidated clays, with which the overprediction of strength on the “dry” side can be greatly improved with reasonable results. Other important features, including contractive or dilative response and hardening or softening behavior, can also be well-captured. It has been shown that the model can simulate three types of reconstituted clays that are sheared with initial conditions over a wide range of anisotropic consolidation stress ratios and overconsolidation ratios under both triaxial undrained and drained conditions. Limitations and potential improvement of the model regarding the fabric anisotropy at critical state have been discussed.  相似文献   

Finite‐element modelling of physics‐based hillslope hydrology,Keith Beven,and beyond          下载免费PDF全文

Keith Loague  Brian A. Ebel 《水文研究》2016,30(14):2432-2437

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Using hydrogeochemical signatures of stream water to assess pathways for rainfall events: towards a predictive model          下载免费PDF全文

J. A. Figueiredo  E. A. Menor  M. T. Taboada‐Castro  M. M. Taboada‐Castro  M. L. Rodríguez‐Blanco  E. S. Braga 《水文研究》2014,28(4):2302-2311

Thanks to its simple division into agricultural and forestry land use, the Corbeira catchment (Galicia, Spain) is used as a case study to build a predictive model using hydrogeochemical signatures. Stream data acquired under recessional flow conditions over a one year period were obtained from a sampling station near the downstream end of the catchment, and using principal component analysis, it is shown that some of the analytical parameters are covariant, and some are negatively correlated. These findings support inferences about the pathways of rainfall in the catchment. Specific signatures may be associated with the dominant hydrological source, either surface runoff or subsurface waters: additionally, the dominant land use in that part of the catchment, where the flow originated, can also be predicted. The dominant runoff shows a strong covariance between suspended solids (SS) and particulate phosphorus (PP), with a clear negative correlation with pH. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) data are associated with this covariant set when these compounds are available in the soils in question. Dissolved phosphorus, total organic nitrogen and dissolved nitrates are also associated with the same covariant set when the runoff flows through areas of extensive agricultural use. The SS ? PP covariance is less significant at lower flows. Typical base flow regimes show a significant covariance between salinity and pH, with a marked negative correlation with SS ? PP set, confirming the dominance of subsurface waters in the baseflow, as expected. Seasonally divergent DOC ? SS behaviour proves to be a useful tracer for rainfall regimes. The DOC trend shows a sinusoidal annual variation in amplitude, determined by the rainfall regime. As a result, flow from the catchment is dominated by surface water whenever there is synchronicity between the peaks of DOC and SS. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Estimation of instantaneous peak flow from maximum mean daily flow by regionalization of catchment model parameters          下载免费PDF全文

Jie Ding  Uwe Haberlandt 《水文研究》2017,31(3):612-626

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