龙卷风的风强分析与极值推断   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

干莲君  田心如  张东凌  项瑛  罗莹 《气象科学》1999,(1)

本文采用1955－1997年影响盐城市的龙卷风资料,按富士达F等级定义龙卷风风强分类级别,对盐城市受袭击点的破坏程度进行风强分级,并分析各个时段龙卷风风强等级的频数。应用耿贝尔极值分布理论,对影响盐城市的龙卷风风速极值进行统计推断,获得1％风险度龙卷风风速极值,以及各种特定重视期间的极值。  相似文献   

基于贝叶斯框架的各向异性页岩储层岩石物理反演技术   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

刘财  符伟  郭智奇  刘喜武  刘宇巍 《地球物理学报》2018,61(6):2589-2600

页岩岩石物理建模旨在建立页岩矿物组分、微观结构、流体填充与岩石弹性参数的关系.对四川盆地龙马溪组页岩进行岩石物理建模研究,针对页岩黏土含量高、层间微裂缝发育等特点,利用Backus平均理论描述页岩黏土矿物弹性参数,利用Chapman理论计算与水平微裂缝有关的VTI各向异性,并利用Bond变换考虑地层倾角的影响.提出以黏土矿物纵、横波速度和孔隙纵横比为拟合参数进行岩石物理反演的方法,并引入贝叶斯框架减小反演的多解性.由已知的黏土矿物纵、横波速度和孔隙纵横比作为先验信息,并以测井纵、横波速度作为约束条件建立反演的目标函数,同时利用粒子群算法进行最优化搜索.计算结果表明,基于先验约束和粒子群算法的反演方法能够较准确地反演黏土矿物的弹性参数、孔隙形态参数以及裂缝密度等参数.计算得到的黏土纵、横波速度较高,并且在一定范围内变化,这可能与龙马溪组页岩的黏土矿物组分中具有较高弹性模量的伊利石含量较高有关,同时也与黏土定向排列等微观物性特征有关.反演得到的裂缝密度与纵波各向异性参数ε呈明显的正相关,而与横波各向异性参数γ相关性较小.另外,页岩各向异性参数与黏土垂向的纵横波速度有较强的相关性.  相似文献   

The effect of land cover change on duration and severity of high and low flows   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Kuk‐Hyun Ahn  Venkatesh Merwade 《水文研究》2017,31(1):133-149

Land cover has been increasingly recognized as an important factor affecting hydrologic processes at the basin and regional level. Therefore, improved understanding of how land cover change affects hydrologic systems is needed for better management of water resources. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of land cover change on the duration and severity of high and low flows by using the Soil Water Assessment Tool model, Bayesian model averaging and copulas. Two basins dominated by different land cover in the Ohio River basin are used as study area in this study. Two historic land covers from the 1950s and 1990s are considered as input to the Soil Water Assessment Tool model, thereby investigating the hydrologic high and low flow response of different land cover conditions of these two basins. The relationships between the duration and severity of both low and high flow are defined by applying the copula method; changes in the frequency of the duration and severity are investigated. The results show that land cover changes affect both the duration and severity of both high and low flows. An increase in forest area leads to a decrease in the duration and severity during both high and low flows, but its impact is highest during extreme flows. The results also show that the land cover changes have had significant influences on changes in the joint return periods of duration and severity of low and high flows. While this study sheds light on the role of land cover change on severity and duration of high and low flow conditions, more studies using various land cover conditions and climate types are required in order to draw more reliable conclusions in the future. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Evaluation of nonlinear models for precipitation forecasting     

Abazar Solgi  Vahid Nourani  Mohammad Bagherian Marzouni 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(16):2695-2704

Prediction of factors affecting water resources systems is important for their design and operation. In hydrology, wavelet analysis (WA) is known as a new method for time series analysis. In this study, WA was combined with an artificial neural network (ANN) for prediction of precipitation at Varayeneh station, western Iran. The results obtained were compared with the adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and ANN. Moreover, data on relative humidity and temperature were employed in addition to rainfall data to examine their influence on precipitation forecasting. Overall, this study concluded that the hybrid WANN model outperformed the other models in the estimation of maxima and minima, and is the best at forecasting precipitation. Furthermore, training and transfer functions are recommended for similar studies of precipitation forecasting.  相似文献   

纵向和横向同时约束AVO反演          下载免费PDF全文

霍国栋  杜启振  王秀玲  陈刚  郑笑雪 《地球物理学报》2017,60(1):271-282

为了提高AVO(amplitude versus offset)反演结果的精度和横向连续性,本文提出了一种新的AVO反演约束方法,该方法结合贝叶斯原理和卡尔曼滤波算法实现了对反演参数纵向和横向的同时约束.文章首先结合反演参数的纵向贝叶斯先验概率约束和反演参数的横向连续性假设建立了与卡尔曼滤波算法对应的AVO反演系统的数学模型,然后将该数学模型代入卡尔曼滤波算法框架,利用卡尔曼滤波算法实现了双向约束AVO反演.二维模型测试和实际数据测试结果表明,相对于单纯的纵向贝叶斯先验概率约束,双向约束能更准确地刻画参数的横向变化,得到更准确、横向连续性更好的反演结果.  相似文献   

基于贝叶斯网络的海洋生态环境状况评价——以山东省为例     

杨湘艳  余静 《海洋通报》2021,40(4)

在海洋开发利用活动日益增多,海洋环境保护压力日益增大的背景下,进行海洋生态环境状况科学评价方法的研究可以为开展海洋生态环境监测评估与海洋生态环境保护政策制定提供科学依据,促进改善海洋生态环境状况。本文首先基于贝叶斯网络基本理论,构建了海洋生态环境状况贝叶斯网络评价模型;再以山东省为例,充分融合专家经验知识与客观数据,从定性与定量两个角度评价了2013—2019年山东省近海生态环境状况,分析了各评价指标间关系及其对近海生态环境状况的影响程度。评价结果表明2013—2019年山东省近海生态环境状况保持一般状态,海洋环境质量与海洋生态灾害类指标对评价结果影响最大,山东省海洋环境保护工作初见成效。研究结果表明该评价模型能有效评价海洋生态环境状况,分析结果对于环境保护政策制定具有一定的借鉴意义。  相似文献   

基于贝叶斯方法的深层充电效应风险模型评估          下载免费PDF全文

李程  陈东 《地球物理学报》2019,62(6):1991-2000

高能电子穿透航天器并在其内部沉积电荷从而引发深层充电效应,是导致卫星故障的重要因素之一.为了评估深层充电效应诱发卫星异常的风险,本文基于贝叶斯方法,使用一颗地球同步轨道卫星的异常数据和GOES-8卫星的电子通量探测数据,计算了不同能量阈值及累积时间的电子注量、不同卫星配置下模拟仿真的沉积电荷,并分别与卫星异常建立一系列概率风险模型.本文从模型中随机抽样得到模拟异常,并与实测异常构造混淆矩阵以评估模型拟合优度,结果表明1.0MeV电子3日累积注量-卫星异常概率风险模型为该卫星最优模型.本文利用最优模型对该卫星深层充电效应风险进行了计算,在1.0MeV电子3日累积注量达到2.0×10~(10)cm~(-2)·sr~(-1)时,该卫星发生深层充电异常的平均后验概率为27%,且95%最小可信值为22%.根据最优模型,我们对该卫星最可能导致异常的部件的材料和结构等特征做出了推断.  相似文献   

Bayesian probabilistic damage detection of a reinforced‐concrete bridge column     

Hoon Sohn  Kincho H. Law 《地震工程与结构动力学》2000,29(8):1131-1152

A Bayesian probabilistic approach for damage detection has been proposed for the continuous monitoring of civil structures (Sohn H, Law KH. Bayesian probabilistic approach for structure damage detection. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics 1997; 26 :1259–1281). This paper describes the application of the Bayesian approach to predict the location of plastic hinge deformation using the experimental data obtained from the vibration tests of a reinforced‐concrete bridge column. The column was statically pushed incrementally with lateral displacements until a plastic hinge is fully formed at the bottom portion of the column. Vibration tests were performed at different damage stages. The proposed damage detection method was able to locate the damaged region using a simplified analytical model and the modal parameters estimated from the vibration tests, although (1) only the first bending and first torsional modes were estimated from the experimental test data, (2) the locations where the accelerations were measured did not coincide with the degrees of freedom of the analytical model, and (3) there existed discrepancies between the undamaged test structure and the analytical model. The Bayesian framework was able to systematically update the damage probabilities when new test data became available. Better diagnosis was obtained by employing multiple data sets than just by using each test data set separately. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

利用参考图像的遥感图像模糊估计与恢复   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王天慧  李盛阳  李绪志 《遥感学报》2010,14(3):464-474

提出一种新的利用参考图像的模糊估计与恢复方法。同一场景不同时相的图像,由于拍摄条件的不同,清晰化程度也往往不同,将高质量的图像作为参考,为模糊估计和恢复提供先验知识,在Bayes统一的框架内进行快速PSF估计,然后使用总变分最小化方法进行恢复。通过真实遥感图像实验,结果表明所提出的方法可以有效地估计退化模糊、恢复未失真图像。  相似文献   

多个粗差定位的抗掩盖型Bayes方法   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

归庆明  李新娜 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2010,(1)

在综合利用先验信息与观测信息的基础上,提出了多个粗差探测的Bayes方法。为了有效地防止掩盖和湮没现象的发生,在分析掩盖和湮没现象发生原因的基础上,从识别向量的样本相关系数阵的特征结构出发,提出了多个粗差定位的抗掩盖型Bayes方法,并设计了相应的算法——自适应MCMC抽样算法。  相似文献