中国20年一遇气温和降水极值变化的高分辨率模拟   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

吴佳  高学杰  石英 《气候变化研究进展》2012,8(4):243-249

基于25 km高分辨率区域气候模式（RegCM3）嵌套MIROC3.2_hires全球气候模式结果,进行IPCC SRES A1B情景下21世纪气候变化的模拟,分析中国区域未来气温和降水极值重现期的变化。首先检验模式对当代（1981-2000年）极端事件重现期的模拟能力,结果表明,模式能够较好地再现中国地区20年一遇极端事件的基本分布型,但所模拟的数值与观测相比还有一定偏差,特别是在极端降水方面。21世纪中期（2041-2060年）和末期（2081-2100年）20年一遇的高温极值在整个区域内均将升高,东北地区增幅最大;低温极值将增大,中心位于内蒙古、新疆及青藏高原南麓;降水极值也将普遍增大。气温和降水极值在21世纪末期的增加幅度均比中期要大。在未来全球变暖背景下,中国地区极端高温事件将明显增多,面积增大;极端低温事件将大幅度减少,面积减少;强降水事件也将增多,面积不断扩大。  相似文献   

太湖地区多剖面地层学分析与良渚期环境事件   总被引：8，自引：2，他引：6  

史威  马春梅  朱诚  王富葆  李世杰 《地理研究》2008,27(5):1129-1138

太湖地区多剖面地层学分析和环境考古研究表明:本区良渚期为全新世大暖期中气候逐渐向干凉转变的时期,但大部分时间里仍略比今天暖湿。良渚期末气候走入低谷并剧烈波动,良渚期侵蚀面反映一次较长时间的海面下降过程,气候剧烈波动的转型期与海面下降至低海面过程相一致。此时本区洪积层、埋藏遗址及遗址地层中文化间歇层等发育皆反映古洪水泛滥事件的存在;而良渚期侵蚀面上的铁锰结核聚集现象及现没于水下的众多良渚期开挖的古井等遗迹还反映出这一时期也曾发生过气候干燥事件。分析认为良渚文化繁荣发展期陆地面积扩大,气候略好于今天;而良渚文化衰亡期则处于4300~3800aB. P.间的水、旱灾丛生的低海面气候异常期。  相似文献   

Ice-rafted detritus events in the Arctic during the last glacial interval, and the timing of the Innuitian and Laurentide ice sheet calving events   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

Dennis A. Darby  & Paula Zimmerman 《Polar research》2008,27(2):114-127

Ice-rafted detritus (IRD) layers in the Arctic Ocean not only indicate the source of this detrital sediment, but give insights into the ice drift and ice sheet history. Detrital sand-sized Fe oxide mineral grains that are matched to precise sources using the microprobe chemical fingerprint of each grain, along with elevated coarse IRD abundance and radiocarbon ages, are used to define IRD peaks from the Innuitian and Arctic portions of the Laurentide ice sheets. Because grains from these two areas can be entrained by sea ice from the shelves just offshore of the calving areas, peaks in these grains must be correlated to coarse IRD to identify iceberg calving events, and to distinguish them from sea-ice rafting. The sequence of IRD peaks deposited by icebergs from these two ice sheets indicate that both ice sheets calved bergs at accelerated numbers, six or seven times, from 11 to 36 Kya. The relatively short times between most of these IRD events suggest that the ice sheets did not completely collapse with each IRD event, except the last event. Although there is some indication that one ice sheet may have begun calving bergs before the other, the resolution of the Arctic cores does not allow definitive determination of this. This emphasizes the need for higher resolution cores from the central Arctic, as well as from near the terminus of large Pleistocene ice sheets. Sea-ice rafting occurs throughout the last glacial stage, even during some glacial IRD events, as indicated by Fe grains from non-glacial sources.  相似文献   

Diagenesis in Okavango fan and adjacent dune deposits with implications for the record of palaeo-environmental change in Makgadikgadi–Okavango–Zambezi basin, northern Botswana   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Susan Ringrose  Philippa Huntsman-Mapila  William Downey  Stephan Coetzee  Martin Fey  Cornelis Vanderpost  Bernard Vink  Thebe Kemosidile  Dikitso Kolokose 《Geomorphology》2008,101(4):544-557

This work considers the spatial distribution and ages of western MOZ basin siliclastic sediments prior to providing insights into the diagenesis of degraded dune and alluvial fan sands. Previously published and new TL/OSL ages imply that extensive over-washing of dune sands took place at least 100 ka ago while ages on Okavango floodplains imply that the fan was formed ca. 40 ka and has since undergone periods of higher and lower flood regimes. Sediment analyses indicate that both dune and fan sands contain a diagenetic matrix of clay-enhanced amorphous silica (CEAS) which bonds weakly formed aggregates. The time of formation of diagenetic matrix products is inconclusive but may have been accelerated during or shortly after events dated using OSL/TL techniques. Hence earlier dune over-washing may have led to greater porewater of an acidic to near neutral nature which in turn promoted smectite formation and silicic acid precipitation > 100 000 years ago. The relatively abundant CEAS matrix in floodplain sands implies more recent semi-continuous flood events again of an acidic-near neutral nature leading to the formation of smectite. In this case the floodplain sediments are dated as having been deposited around 40 and 11 ka, when porewater content may have accelerated clay formation and silica dissolution. The dual nature of the CEAS in the islands reflects a changing environment from smectite-dominated flooding events to sepiolite-dominated desiccation events. Flooding may also correspond to TL/OSL ages over the past 40 000 years which contributed to accelerated CEAS formation. The sepiolite is associated with a Ca-rich matrix implying desiccation which may relate to drying events over the 40 000 year period or to riparian tree root pumping and selective salt accumulation. This work shows that sedimentation in incipient rifts is complex and rarely explained totally in terms of primary depositional events. The implications of different stages of sand diagenesis may be significant in enhancing palaeo-environmental interpretations in semi-arid fluvial environments.  相似文献   

2009年秋至2010年春我国西南地区干旱及与历史场次干旱对比分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

刘建刚  万金红  谭徐明  马建明  张念强 《地震学刊》2011,(2):196-200

2009年10月至2010年4月,我国西南地区由于受厄尔尼诺影响,气温偏高、降雨偏少,发生了秋冬春三季连旱,耕地受旱面积占全国同期耕地受旱面积的78%,受灾人口和大牲畜饮水困难头数都达到了近十年来该地区的最高水平。通过对比本次和历史场次干旱发现,西南干旱并非稀遇现象,1951~1990年的40年间该地区曾发生干旱12次,且1949年以来,干旱有缓慢加重的趋势;本次旱灾与1963年旱灾在时空分布、灾害成因和灾情方面较为相似,但从气象干旱的角度来看,虽然1963年部分受旱地区无有效降雨历时为11个月,高于本次旱灾的6个月,但本次受灾率和成灾率均为1949年以来的最大值,说明在快速发展背景下,经济社会面对干旱显得更为脆弱。这些结论对于认清西南地区干旱特性与旱灾演变规律,加强抗旱减灾体系建设,具有重要的参考价值。  相似文献   

1981～2015年华北地区持续霾事件的特征及其环流分类研究     

孟亚楠  孙建华  卫捷  赵琳娜 《气候与环境研究》2019,24(3):341-358

根据1981～2015年华北地区地面基本气象要素定时值数据集和地面气候日值数据集站点资料,分别利用14时实测值法和目标区域极端事件的客观识别方法挑选霾日数和持续霾事件,并分析了它们的特征;,然后对持续霾事件进行了分类研究。结果表明:（1）华北地区霾日数空间分布极不均匀,有4个大值区:吕梁山和太行山之间的河谷地区、沿太行山以东的平原、河南北部、环黄海和渤海地区。（2）华北地区共挑选出111个持续霾事件,其中,持续3～5 d的事件最多,占了总数的86.5%,最长的事件可达12 d。（3）持续霾事件和霾日数的空间分布特征相似,且存在明显的年、季变化。1981～2015年持续霾事件数呈增加趋势,冬季增加最显著,其次是秋季和春季,夏季最少。（4）结合地形、霾日数、持续霾事件的分布和环流特征把持续霾事件分为7类,对发生频次较多的4类（华北地区型,河南北部及太行山以东的平原型,河南北部型,河南北部及环渤海、黄海地区型）的环流进行了对比分析。其环流形势的主要特征包括:对流层的中低层华北地区为纬向西风气流或脊前西北气流,我国南部或东南部地区高压西部的西南气流与华北地区的偏西气流产生弱辐合下沉气流;近地面层由于地形的影响形成垂直环流圈,霾最严重的地区一般出现在地形的东坡和垂直环流圈的下沉支。近地面东南气流和低层的西南气流向该地区输送了暖湿空气和污染物。华北地区霾发生位置的不同,主要由低层我国东部或者南部高压的位置和强度,以及局地垂直环流的下沉支的位置决定。这些研究结果可以为华北地区持续性霾的防控提供参考。  相似文献   

气候变暖的适应行为与黑龙江省夏季低温冷害的变化   总被引：20，自引：3，他引：17  

方修琦  王媛  朱晓禧 《地理研究》2005,24(5):664-672

与气候变暖相联系的极端天气、气候事件及其影响的研究正日益受到重视,极端事件与气候变化直接相关,而极端事件的影响还与人类的适应行为密切相关。本文以农业对温度变化最敏感的黑龙江省为例,分析了变暖对夏季低温冷害事件的影响。结果显示,变暖后夏季出现低温冷害临界气温的概率减小;但由于人们追求更高经济效益的适应行为,在变暖的情况下种植更适应较暖气候条件的农作物,低温冷害的发生的频率和强度并不一定随变暖而减少,但作物单产期望值还是会增加。  相似文献   

白垩纪世界与大洋红层   总被引：38，自引：2，他引：36  

王成善  胡修棉 《地学前缘》2005,12(2):11-21

白垩纪代表着地质历史中的一种极端的温室气候,已被国际地球科学界视为研究地球系统科学的典型范例。文中在评述白垩纪沉积作用、古气候、古海洋研究中取得的重要进展基础上,重点介绍推动白垩纪研究核心问题之一的黑色页岩和大洋缺氧事件以及由中国学者提出的白垩纪大洋红层和富氧作用。大洋缺氧事件与大洋红层的研究因其与碳氧循环、古气候和古海洋变化的紧密关系,已经成为国际白垩纪研究中的热点问题,并在今后一段时期内继续引领着白垩纪古海洋、古气候变化研究的不断深入。  相似文献   

Population ecology of Sinelobus stanfordi (Crustacea: Tanaidacea) in a temperate southern microtidal estuary     

AC Ferreira  ES Ambrosio  A Rodrigues Capítulo 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(4):462-471

Sinelobus stanfordi is a tanaidacean of worldwide distribution of considerable significance within coastal ecosystems. The aim of this research was to provide essential information on the poorly-known population biology of this species. Benthic samples were taken seasonally from winter 2005 through summer 2007 along 155?km of shoreline within the Río de la Plata Estuary, Argentina. The density of this tanaidacean was higher in vegetated than in bare sediments. The smaller individuals flourished in spring and summer, whereas the larger mature members prevailed in the cooler seasons. Females were always twice as abundant as males. Copulatory females, with 18?±?8 eggs each, were collected during all the seasons. Five cohorts were distinguished by the von Bertalanffy growth function. This research represents a baseline investigation for future studies on the population dynamics of S. stanfordi both in this estuary and in other places where this species is found.  相似文献   

Sea Level Changes Along Bangladesh Coast in Relation to the Southern Oscillation Phenomenon   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

O. P. Singh Tariq Masood Ali Khan  Tad S. Murty  Md. Sazedur Rahman 《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(1):65-72

Interannual variations of sea level along the Bangladesh coast are quite pronounced and often dominate the long-term sea level trends that are taking place. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) induced variation is an important component of interannual mode of variations. The present article deals with the relationship between the sea level variations along the Bangladesh coast and the Southern Oscillation phenomenon. The mean tide level data of monsoon season (June to September) pertaining to Hiron Point (in Sundarbans) and Char Changa (on the mouth of Meghna River) have been analyzed and correlated to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The annual variation of mean tide level in the coastal areas of Bangladesh reveals that the tide level reaches its peak during the monsoon season. The maximum tide level during the calendar year is recorded in August. Thus, it is not surprising that the inundation of the coastal belt of Bangladesh due to the floods is most common during the summer monsoon season, especially from July to September. Therefore, the sea level variations during the monsoon are of paramount importance to Bangladesh. The results of the present study show that both at Hiron Point and Char Changa there is a substantial difference between the mean tide level during the El Niño and La Niña monsoons. The mean tide level at Hiron Point is higher by about 5 cm during August of La Niña years as compared to that during the El Niño years. The difference at Char Changa, which is located at the mouth of Meghna River, is much higher. This is probably due to the increased fresh water discharge into the Meghna River during La Niña years. Thus at the time of crossing of a monsoon depression, the chances of widespread inundation are higher during a La Nin~a year as compared to that during an El Niño year. The Correlation Coefficients (CCs) between Mean Tide Levels (MTLs) at Hiron Point and Char Changa and the SOI during September (at the end of monsoon) are +0.33 and +0.39 respectively. These CCs are statistically significant at 90% and 95% levels, respectively. These results may find applications in the preparedness programs for combating sea level associated disasters in Bangladesh.  相似文献