长期天气预报中有关预报因子的若干探讨   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

向元珍  曾九芳 《海洋预报》1995,12(2):1-11

目前行之有效的长期天气预报方法都是数理统计方法。本文以江淮流域夏季旱涝的长期预报为例，对有关预报因子的几个问题作了探索。挑选有实际天气学意义、各自独立、单相关系数较高的物理因子作预报因子，更有利于提高预报准确率，预报因子的时间尺度以月、季平均值最为适宜，而以三个旬滑动平均值的效果最佳，建立各种预报量的初选、精选因子库，更适用于计算机技术制作长期预报。  相似文献   

Circulation and currents in the southwestern East/Japan Sea: Overview and review     

K.-I. Chang  W.J. Teague  S.J. Lyu  H.T. Perkins  D.-K. Lee  D.R. Watts  Y.-B. Kim  D.A. Mitchell  C.M. Lee  K. Kim 《Progress in Oceanography》2004,61(2-4):105

A review is made of circulation and currents in the southwestern East/Japan Sea (the Ulleung Basin), and the Korea/Tsushima Strait which is a unique conduit for surface inflow into the Ulleung Basin. The review particularly concentrates on describing some preliminary results from recent extensive measurements made after 1996. Mean flow patterns are different in the upstream and downstream regions of the Korea/Tsushima Strait. A high velocity core occurs in the mid-section in the upstream region, and splits into two cores hugging the coasts of Korea and Japan, the downstream region, after passing around Tsushima Island located in the middle of the strait. Four-year mean transport into the East/Japan Sea through the Korea/Tsushima Strait based on submarine cable data calibrated by direct observations is 2.4 Sv (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³ s⁻¹). A wide range of variability occurs for the subtidal transport variation from subinertial (2–10 days) to interannual scales. While the subinertial variability is shown to arise from the atmospheric pressure disturbances, the longer period variation has been poorly understood.Mean upper circulation of the Ulleung Basin is characterized by the northward flowing East Korean Warm Current along the east coast of Korea and its meander eastward after the separation from the coast, the Offshore Branch along the coast of Japan, and the anticyclonic Ulleung Warm Eddy that forms from a meander of the East Korean Warm Current. Continuous acoustic travel-time measurements between June 1999 and June 2001 suggest five quasi-stable upper circulation patterns that persist for about 3–5 months with transitions between successive patterns occurring in a few months or days. Disappearance of the East Korean Warm Current is triggered by merging the Dok Cold Eddy, originating from the pinching-off of the meander trough, with the coastal cold water carried Southward by the North Korean Cold Current. The Ulleung Warm Eddy persisted for about 20 months in the middle of the Ulleung Basin with changes in its position and spatial scale associated with strengthening and weakening of the transport through the Korea/Tsushima Strait. The variability of upper circulation is partly related to the transport variation through the Korea/Tsushima Strait. Movements of the coastal cold water and the instability of the polar front also appear to be important factors affecting the variability.Deep circulation in the Ulleung Basin is primarily cyclonic and commonly consists of one or more cyclonic cells, and an anticyclonic cell centered near Ulleung Island. The cyclonic circulation is conjectured to be driven by a net inflow through the Ulleung Interplain Gap, which serves as a conduit for the exchange of deep waters between the Japan Basin in the northern East Sea and the Ulleung Basin. Deep currents are characterized by a short correlation scale and the predominance of mesoscale variability with periods of 20–40 days. Seasonality of deep currents is indistinct, and the coupling of upper and deep circulation has not been clarified yet.  相似文献   

根据多卫星高度计海面高数据推算南中国海及菲律宾海域重力异常(英文)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Isaac Dadzie  Jiancheng Li  Yonghai Chu 《地球空间信息科学学报》2008,11(3):174-179

t Gravity anomalies on a2.5 ×2.5 arc-minute grid in a non-tidal system were derived over the South China and Philippine Seas from multi-satellite altimetry data. North and east components of deflections of the vertical were computed from altimeter-derived sea surface heights at crossover locations, and gridded onto a 2.5 × 2.5 arc-minute resolution grid. EGM96-derived components of deflections of the vertical and gravity anomalies gridded into 2.5 × 2.5 arc-minute resolutions were then used as reference global geopotential model quantities in a remove-restore procedure to implement the Inverse Vening Meinesz formula via the 1D-FFT technique to predict the gravity anomalies over the South China and Philippine Seas from the gridded altimeter-derived components of deflections of the vertical. Statistical comparisons between the altimeter-derived and the shipboard gravity anomalies showed that there is a root-mean-square agreement of 5.7 mgals between them.  相似文献   

辽宁东五家子金矿矿脉含矿性评价标志研究   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

朴寿成  师磊  杨明亮  王宝岩 《地质找矿论丛》2008,23(3):204-208

辽宁东五家子金矿的矿脉由蚀变岩和石英脉透镜体构成,可采矿体均为硫化物石英脉型.工业矿脉中,石英为烟灰色,发育他形、半自形的细粒黄铁矿等硫化物,有较大规模的矿体.矿化脉中,石英为乳白色,发育粗粒、自形的浅色黄铁矿,无可采矿体.在工业矿脉、次要矿脉、矿化脉的蚀变岩和石英脉样品中,Au,Hg与其他元素的相关性有明显区别.用石英脉样品的As-Ni-Ba图解和蚀变岩样品的Au-Ag-Ba图解预测,矿区外围的西沟1号脉和西沟3号脉属于工业矿脉.  相似文献   

北京市土壤Hg污染的区域生态地球化学评价   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7  

成杭新  庄广民  赵传冬  杨柯  聂海峰  刘飞  黄宏库  范辉  阮启和  冯辉 《地学前缘》2008,15(5):126

城市土壤Hg异常/污染是中国普遍存在的重大生态环境问题。文章对北京市近1000km2范围内的地表土壤、壤中气、大气干湿沉降、大气颗粒物、大气中的Hg含量水平和空间分布模式进行了系统研究,查明北京地表土壤Hg平均含量为0.41mg/kg,大气干湿沉降物中的Hg平均含量为0.194mg/kg,壤中气Hg的平均含量为559.65ng/m3,大气颗粒物PM10和PM2.5中的Hg含量分别为0.59和0.67ng/m3,大气中的Hg平均含量为3.13ng/m3。北京市自2000年起实现了由燃煤转变为燃气的减排措施,导致干湿沉降物中的Hg沉降通量显著减少,2006年大气干湿沉降物中Hg的沉降通量1.837mg·m-2·a-1,北京市城区(近1000km2)Hg全年沉降为1837kg,空气中总Hg浓度由1998年的8.3~24.7ng/m3下降到2006年的3.13ng/m3,大气颗粒物中Hg含量由2003年的1.18ng/m3下降到2006年的0.59ng/m3(PM10)和0.67ng/m3(PM2.5),表明北京市煤改气减排措施的实施显著改善了大气环境质量。通过对土壤中Hg的存在形式研究,发现土壤中有硫化物(辰砂)及各种Hg盐(HgCl2)的含Hg矿物,Hg也可以各种吸附方式或壤中气方式存在。研究证实北京壤中气Hg与大气Hg存在显著的相关性(n=131,R=0.267,p<0.01),表明壤中气Hg是大气Hg的重要来源之一。利用2005年地表土壤总Hg与Hg释放速率的线性方程估算,土壤Hg平均释放速率为102.42ng·m-2·h-1,2005年土壤释放进大气的Hg通量为936.70kg。在查明土壤中存在大量辰砂矿物的同时,还分布有大量具有高温熔融特征的金属微球粒和玻璃质微球粒,证明燃煤和冶金烟尘是地表土壤Hg的主要来源。土壤中Hg、S、pH和辰砂颗粒浓度在空间上的高度耦合性表明,碱性条件下,土壤中高含量的S和Hg是辰砂形成的重要原因。按国家土壤环境质量标准,北京市I级土壤Hg环境质量的面积为176km2,Ⅱ级为808km2,Ⅲ级为24km2,超Ⅲ为36km2。Ⅲ级、超Ⅲ级主要分布在二环路以内的中心城区。城南(长安街为界)大气Hg环境质量明显优于城北,在北四、北五环之间的部分地区,大气颗粒Hg的环境质量为Ⅲ级或超Ⅲ级。在地表土壤Hg含量较高的中心城区,居民每天因呼吸摄入的Hg高达364ng,对人体健康构成潜在风险。根据我国"十一五"规划中每年实现10%节能减排的目标,对北京市未来50年土壤Hg含量的时空演变趋势预测,预测2050年北京因干湿沉降带来的Hg输入量为16.03kg,地表土壤释放Hg的输出量为37.36kg,明显大于Hg的输入通量,土壤Hg的环境质量将得到根本改善。预测到2040年Ⅲ级土壤Hg环境质量的区域将完全消失,到2060年以Ⅰ级土壤为主。  相似文献   

河北省白洋淀洼地环境地球化学物源判断   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

张秀芝  郭海全  李宏亮  李建华 《地学前缘》2008,15(5)

河北省白洋淀洼地是一个大型天然平原洼地,在洼地的深、浅层土壤中均发现了以Cu、Pb、Zn、Cd为主的多变量地球化学异常。运用地球化学特征法、参考元素法及多元统计法,对深、浅层土壤Cu、Pb、Zn、Cd异常的性质和成因进行了判别。结果表明,深层土壤异常与特定的地球化学沉积环境有关,以自然地质作用成因为主,而浅层土壤异常具有典型的二元叠加特征,以人为源的输入为主。  相似文献   

On the spatial characteristic of the short term and imminent anomalies of underground water behaviors before strong earthquake     

杜学彬  刘耀炜  倪明康 《地震学报(英文版)》1997,10(4):523-533

Ｏｎｔｈｅｓｐａｔｉａｌｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｏｆｔｈｅｓｈｏｒｔ┐ｔｅｒｍａｎｄｉｍｍｉｎｅｎｔａｎｏｍａｌｉｅｓｏｆｕｎｄｅｒｇｒｏｕｎｄｗａｔｅｒｂｅｈａｖｉｏｒｓｂｅｆｏｒｅｓｔｒｏｎｇｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅＸＵＥ－ＢＩＮＤＵ（杜学彬）...  相似文献   

Gravity signature of crustal subduction inferred from numerical modelling     

Anna Maria Marotta  Elisa Spelta  Catia Rizzetto 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,166(2):923-938

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Outlier detection algorithms and their performance in GOCE gravity field processing   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

M. Kern  T. Preimesberger  M. Allesch  R. Pail  J. Bouman  R. Koop 《Journal of Geodesy》2005,78(9):509-519

The satellite missions CHAMP, GRACE, and GOCE mark the beginning of a new era in gravity field determination and modeling. They provide unique models of the global stationary gravity field and its variation in time. Due to inevitable measurement errors, sophisticated pre-processing steps have to be applied before further use of the satellite measurements. In the framework of the GOCE mission, this includes outlier detection, absolute calibration and validation of the SGG (satellite gravity gradiometry) measurements, and removal of temporal effects. In general, outliers are defined as observations that appear to be inconsistent with the remainder of the data set. One goal is to evaluate the effect of additive, innovative and bulk outliers on the estimates of the spherical harmonic coefficients. It can be shown that even a small number of undetected outliers (<0.2 of all data points) can have an adverse effect on the coefficient estimates. Consequently, concepts for the identification and removal of outliers have to be developed. Novel outlier detection algorithms are derived and statistical methods are presented that may be used for this purpose. The methods aim at high outlier identification rates as well as small failure rates. A combined algorithm, based on wavelets and a statistical method, shows best performance with an identification rate of about 99%. To further reduce the influence of undetected outliers, an outlier detection algorithm is implemented inside the gravity field solver (the Quick-Look Gravity Field Analysis tool was used). This results in spherical harmonic coefficient estimates that are of similar quality to those obtained without outliers in the input data.  相似文献   

河北省沙尘暴天气成因分析   总被引：3，自引：4，他引：3  

尤凤春  史印山  付桂琴  安月改 《高原气象》2005,24(4):642-647

分析了河北省沙尘暴天气的演变特征，在此基础上又从气候及大气环流形势变化、动力诊断等方面对河北省沙尘暴天气成因进行了初步分析。结果表明：近年来河北省地区春季降雨持续偏少，气温持续偏高，为沙尘暴的形成提供了有利条件；而有利的大气环流形势和较强冷空气频繁南下是造成沙尘暴明显偏多的主要原因。  相似文献