排序方式： 共有95条查询结果，搜索用时 15 毫秒
71.
全球定位系统的可降水量资料在北京地区快速更新循环系统中的同化试验 总被引：10，自引：1，他引：9
针对发生于2006年8月和2007年6-8月的28次降水过程,在3 h快速更新循环同化预报系统平台上分别进行了有无同化局地GPS可降水量资料的试验.结果表明,局地GPS可降水量的同化可以使模式对大阈值降水的时段、强度和落区的预报性能均获得全面的提高,此现象在模式积分最初的0-6小时表现得更为明显.由于同化所用的GPS可降水量观测资料主要集中在极为局地的京津冀地区,而且GPS-PWV资料的同化仅能对模式中的水汽含量发生影响,因此该资料的同化与否并不能为模式总体预报性能带来明显差异.但从以54511测站为代表的北京地区局地常规要素预报效果来看,快速更新循环的同化方式能使高时空分辨率的GPS可降水量在北京局地的同化效果得以累积,并为气象要素在局地的预报效果带来显著的正面影响.通过对一次强对流个例进行分析可以发现,以快速更新循环的方式可以同化较高时间频率的GPS可降水量观测,从而对模式大气的初始湿度条件起到持续累积的影响.在一定的动力和热力条件下,由GPS可降水量同化带来的累积的模式大气增湿也有望在模式中形成利于局地对流形成和发展的环境,提高模式对局地对流的预报水平. 相似文献
72.
应用ATOVS资料和非对称Bogus资料对登陆台风韦帕的4DVAR数值模拟分析 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
前人研究中BDA方法采用的轴对称Bogus台风不能反映个别台风具体特征并弃掉了背景场的合理成分,也没有考虑大环境场的影响及湿热要素的同化。因此,提出一种充分融合分析场信息和实际观测信息并考虑副高影响的精细非对称台风Bogus方法,并在MM5的伴随同化系统中引入快速辐射传输模式RTTOV8,通过四维变分同化(4DVAR)技术,加入海面风场和气压场Bogus资料及多颗卫星多条轨道上的ATOVS红外和微波卫星辐射亮温资料并考虑Noah陆面过程方案来对登陆台风韦帕进行数值模拟,结果表明,单独同化海面Bogus资料的BDA方案可间接产生初始场非对称三维环流结构和暖心结构,但对湿度场及台风周围大环境场的调整不足,台风登陆后的路径预报改善也不明显;引入陆面过程方案弥补了Bogus资料对台风登陆后路径预报的不足;加入ATOVS资料能对湿度场及台风周围环境场做出调整,重构了大量中尺度结构信息,取得更为精细的初始台风环流和温压湿场结构,保持BDA方案路径及强度预报的优势的同时,使预报的降水强度增加,降水落区发生改变。 相似文献
73.
Nonlinear balance constraints in 3DVAR data assimilation 总被引：7，自引：2，他引：7
Consideration of the so-called balance properties/ constraints is of great importance in the data assimila- tion. First, it is desirable to separate the slow modes (e.g., Rossby waves) from the fast modes (e.g., gravity waves and deep convection). Second, consideration of the balance constraints enables us to infer information about all variables that are balanced with the observed variable and hereby improve the quality of the analy- sis. The balance properties are usually represented by some… 相似文献
74.
S. Abhilash Someshwar Das S. R. Kalsi M. Das Gupta K. Mohankumar J. P. George S. K. Banerjee S. B. Thampi D. Pradhan 《Journal of Earth System Science》2007,116(4):275-304
Obtaining an accurate initial state is recognized as one of the biggest challenges in accurate model prediction of convective
events. This work is the first attempt in utilizing the India Meteorological Department (IMD) Doppler radar data in a numerical
model for the prediction of mesoscale convective complexes around Chennai and Kolkata. Three strong convective events both
over Chennai and Kolkata have been considered for the present study. The simulation experiments have been carried out using
fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) mesoscale model (MM5) version
3.5.6. The variational data assimilation approach is one of the most promising tools available for directly assimilating the
mesoscale observations in order to improve the initial state. The horizontal wind derived from the DWR has been used alongwith
other conventional and non-conventional data in the assimilation system. The preliminary results from the three dimensional
variational (3DVAR) experiments are encouraging. The simulated rainfall has also been compared with that derived from the
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The encouraging result from this study can be the basis for further
investigation of the direct assimilation of radar reflectivity data in 3DVAR system. The present study indicates that Doppler
radar data assimilation improves the initial field and enhances the Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) skill. 相似文献
75.
反演同化和直接同化多普勒雷达径向风的对比试验 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
针对2003年7月5日江淮流域一次暴雨过程,以NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°再分析资料为背景场,采用WRF(weather research and forecasting)模式及其三维变分同化系统,对雷达径向风和E-VAP(extended velocity azimuth processing)反演的水平风场进行了直接同化和反演同化试验,结果表明:直接同化雷达径向风资料后,增加了初始风场的中小尺度信息,改善了垂直速度条件,且在风场作用下水汽分布得到改善;反演同化资料虽然能增加初始场的中小尺度信息,但效果不如直接同化明显;无论直接同化还是反演同化都能改善降水预报,但直接同化好于反演同化,且间隔5～6 min比30 min的直接同化模拟效果好. 相似文献
76.
Mesoscale Structure of Rainstorm Retrieved from Dual-Doppler Radar Observations Using the 4DVAR Assimilation Technique 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 
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下载免费PDF全文 The four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation method was applied to dual-Doppler radar data about two Meiyu rainstorms observed during CHeRES (China Heavy Rain Experiment and Study). The purpose of this study is to examine the performance of the 4DVAR technique in retrieving rainstorm mesoscale structure and to reveal the feature of rainstorm mesoscale structure. Results demonstrated that the 4DVAR assimilation method was able to retrieve the detailed structure of wind, thermodynamics, and microphysics fields from dual-Doppler radar observations. The retrieved wind fields agreed with the dual-Doppler synthesized winds and were accurate. The distributions of the retrieved perturbation pressure, perturbation temperature, and microphysics fields were also reasonable through the examination of their physical consistency. Both of the two heavy rainfalls were caused by merging cloud processes. The wind shear and convergence lines at middle and lower levels were their primary dynamical characteristics. The convective system was often related to low-level convergence and upper-level divergence coupled with up-drafts. During its mature stage, the convective system was characterized by low pressure at lower level and high pressure at upper level, associated with warmer at middle level and colder at lower and upper levels than the environment. However, a region of cooling and high pressure occurred in the lower and middle levels compared to warming and low pressure in the upper level during its dissipating stage. The water vapor, cloud water, and rainwater corresponded to the convergence, the updraft and the intensive reflectivity, respectively. 相似文献
77.
Jincheng WANG Xingwei JIANG Xueshun SHEN Youguang ZHANG Xiaomin WAN Wei HAN Dan WANG 《大气科学进展》2023,40(1):44-61
The ocean surface wind(OSW) data retrieved from microwave scatterometers have high spatial accuracy and represent the only wind data assimilated by global numerical models on the ocean surface, thus playing an important role in improving the forecast skills of global medium-range weather prediction models. To improve the forecast skills of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System Global Forecast System(GRAPES＿GFS), the HY-2B OSW data is assimilated into the GRAPES＿GFS four-dimensio... 相似文献
78.
Junhua YANG Zhenming JI Deliang CHEN Shichang KANG Congshen FU Keqin DUAN Miaogen SHEN 《大气科学进展》2018,35(6):628-644
The application of satellite radiance assimilation can improve the simulation of precipitation by numerical weather prediction models. However, substantial quantities of satellite data, especially those derived from low-level(surface-sensitive)channels, are rejected for use because of the difficulty in realistically modeling land surface emissivity and energy budgets.Here, we used an improved land use and leaf area index(LAI) dataset in the WRF-3 DVAR assimilation system to explore the benefit of using improved quality of land surface information to improve rainfall simulation for the Shule River Basin in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau as a case study. The results for July 2013 show that, for low-level channels(e.g., channel 3),the underestimation of brightness temperature in the original simulation was largely removed by more realistic land surface information. In addition, more satellite data could be utilized in the assimilation because the realistic land use and LAI data allowed more satellite radiance data to pass the deviation test and get used by the assimilation, which resulted in improved initial driving fields and better simulation in terms of temperature, relative humidity, vertical convection, and cumulative precipitation. 相似文献
79.
We present the derivation of the discrete Euler–Lagrange equations for an inverse spectral element ocean model based on the shallow water equations. We show that the discrete Euler–Lagrange equations can be obtained from the continuous Euler–Lagrange equations by using a correct combination of the weak and the strong forms of derivatives in the Galerkin integrals, and by changing the order with which elemental assembly and mass averaging are applied in the forward and in the adjoint systems. Our derivation can be extended to obtain an adjoint for any Galerkin finite element and spectral element system.We begin the derivations using a linear wave equation in one dimension. We then apply our technique to a two-dimensional shallow water ocean model and test it on a classic double-gyre problem. The spectral element forward and adjoint ocean models can be used in a variety of inverse applications, ranging from traditional data assimilation and parameter estimation, to the less traditional model sensitivity and stability analyses, and ensemble prediction. Here the Euler–Lagrange equations are solved by an indirect representer algorithm. 相似文献
80.
基于中尺度大气模式WRF及其3DVAR.模块,采用循环3DVAR数据同化方案,针对6次明显的黄海海雾过程,实施了一系列直接同化ATOVS卫星辐射数据数值试验.在试验中设计了不同化任何观测数据、仅同化GTS常规数据、仅直接同化辐射数据,同时同化二者,以及同化不同疏密程度辐射数据的对比研究方案.利用地面水平能见度与卫星云图对模拟的海雾雾区进行了评估,并比较了各种同化方案所形成初始场的差异.对试验结果的统计分析表明:同化试验较好地再现了影响海雾的天气系统,模拟雾区与实际观测较为吻合,并且初始温度场和湿度场对比不同化任何观测数据的试验有明显的改善;仅同化辐射数据的结果略优于仅同化常规数据的结果,疏化或者只同化海上辐射数据几乎不影响模拟的雾区,但却可以大幅节约计算资源;同时同化常规数据与辐射数据的结果为单独同化它们所得结果的综合体现,总体效果最好. 相似文献