基于自动观测站的鲁中地区土壤水分变化规律及精细化预报模型的研究     

环海军  杨再强  刘岩  夏福华 《气象科学》2016,36(6):834-842

为了建立鲁中地区土壤水分精细化预报模型,利用2010—2013年农田土壤水分自动站逐日资料进行土壤水分年、月变化特征研究,并结合附近自动气象站资料,以土壤水分平衡方程、农田蒸散模型为基础,采用逐步回归和曲线估计等方法建立4—6月无降水条件下平原水浇田与山旱田土壤水分1 d、7 d降幅的经验预报模型。结果表明:鲁中地区0~100 cm土壤水分贮存量年变化趋势和0~50 cm基本一致,年最高出现在8月,最低出现在6月,年降幅最大出现在3—6月,易出现干旱。对预报模型进行回代和预报检验结果显示,回代平均相对误差为0.07%,7 d模型和1 d模型滚动预报第7天0~50 cm土壤水分贮存量,绝对误差分别为-0.15和-2.17 mm,平均相对误差分别为-0.07%和-1.56%,模型具有较强的理论基础和实用性,预报精度较高,为鲁中地区土壤墒情监测和精细化预报提供支持。  相似文献   

EnSRF雷达资料同化在一次飑线过程中的应用研究   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

高士博  闵锦忠  黄丹莲 《大气科学》2016,40(6):1127-1142

本文利用包含复杂冰相微物理过程的WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）模式,针对2007年4月23日发生在我国华南地区的一次典型飑线天气过程,分别进行了确定性预报和集合预报试验,发现确定性预报能大致捕捉到飑线系统的发生发展过程,但对飑线后部的层云区模拟效果较差。集合预报能够有效地减少模式的不确定性,大部分集合成员对飑线的模拟效果优于确定性预报。进一步将集合预报得到的40个成员作为背景场,采用EnSRF（Ensemble Square Root Filter）同化多普勒天气雷达资料,并将分析得到的集合作为初始场进行集合预报,通过与未同化雷达资料的集合对比,考察了EnSRF同化多部雷达资料对飑线系统的影响。结果表明:EnSRF雷达资料同化增加了模式初始场的中小尺度信息,大部分集合成员的分析场能够较准确地再现飑线的热力场、动力场和微物理场的细致特征,并且模拟出飑线后部的层云结构。通过对EnSRF分析的集合进行模拟发现,大部分集合成员较未同化雷达资料时模拟效果有明显改善。同化后的集合预报ETS（Equitable Threat Score）评分最高,其次是未同化的集合预报,确定性预报的最低。  相似文献   

虚拟化在气象局数据中心的应用     

郭一飞  赵蓓蓓  张玲  刘俊 《气象科技》2016,44(2):223-228

通过对虚拟化技术的研究,结合泰州气象局机房布局、数据中心服务器、存储的应用情况以及新业务的增长需求,提出了有针对性的气象业务虚拟化的解决方案。通过新购刀片服务器、FC SAN存储、VMware软件以及对原有的服务器、存储、网络进行整合改造,搭建了气象业务的虚拟化运行模式,最终实现资源的统一调度管理,建成了一个通用性强、扩展性好、可用性高的数据中心。文章同时简述了虚拟化在数据中心的实施过程、应用注意事项、业务迁移适应性分析以及最终的效益。  相似文献   

中国东部夏季暴雨的年代际跃变及其大尺度环流背景   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

陈栋  陈际龙  黄荣辉  刘永 《大气科学》2016,40(3):581-590

本文利用1960~2011年中国东部地面测站的逐日降水资料和JRA-55再分析资料探讨了夏季暴雨分布的年代际跃变及其相关联的大尺度环流异常特征。基于暴雨频数和占比(夏季暴雨占比是指5~8月暴雨降水量对总降水量的贡献百分比)的分析结果表明:中国东部夏季暴雨分布在20世纪70年代末和90年代初经历两次反相的经向"三极子"跃变。中国东部夏季暴雨的年代际演变过程可分为三个时段:1960~1979年为华南和华北暴雨偏多、江淮流域暴雨偏少的经向"三极子"分布;1980~1991年为南方和华北暴雨偏少、江淮流域暴雨偏多的经向三极子"分布;1992~2011年为南方暴雨显著偏多、华北暴雨持续偏少,逐渐形成经向"偶极子"分布,并导致近十多年我国夏季"南涝北旱"的整体格局。1970年代末(1990年代初)跃变相关联的大尺度环流异常配置:东亚夏季风的减弱(增强),西太平洋副高的增强西伸但南撤(北抬),南亚高压的减弱南缩(增强东扩),以及蒙古高原中低层的气旋式(反气旋式)环流异常。与此同时,低层局地环流也发生调整:华北和黄淮地区以及华南和江南地区均为反气旋式(气旋式)环流异常,而江淮流域和四川盆地受控于风场切变式辐合(辐散)异常;涡度场发生相应变化,南北方大部分地区的负(正)涡度异常不(有)利于低涡的发展,而江淮流域和四川盆地的正(负)涡度异常有(不)利于低涡的发展,进而引发江南和华南暴雨减少(增加)、江淮流域和四川盆地暴雨增加(减少)、黄淮和华北暴雨减少(增加)的经向"三极子"跃变。  相似文献   

Estimating winter wheat biomass by assimilating leaf area index derived from fusion of Landsat-8 and MODIS data     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2016

A sufficient number of satellite acquisitions in a growing season are essential for deriving agronomic indicators, such as green leaf area index (GLAI), to be assimilated into crop models for crop productivity estimation. However, for most high resolution orbital optical satellites, it is often difficult to obtain images frequently due to their long revisit cycles and unfavorable weather conditions. Data fusion algorithms, such as the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM) and the Enhanced STARFM (ESTARFM), have been developed to generate synthetic data with high spatial and temporal resolution to address this issue. In this study, we evaluated the approach of assimilating GLAI into the Simple Algorithm for Yield Estimation model (SAFY) for winter wheat biomass estimation. GLAI was estimated using the two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) derived from data acquired by the Operational Land Imager (OLI) onboard the Landsat-8 and a fusion dataset generated by blending the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and the OLI data using the STARFM and ESTARFM models. The fusion dataset had the temporal resolution of the MODIS data and the spatial resolution of the OLI data. Key parameters of the SAFY model were optimised through assimilation of the estimated GLAI into the crop model using the Shuffled Complex Evolution-University of Arizona (SCE-UA) algorithm. A good agreement was achieved between the estimated and field measured biomass by assimilating the GLAI derived from the OLI data (GLAI_L) alone (R² = 0.77 and RMSE = 231 g m⁻²). Assimilation of GLAI derived from the fusion dataset (GLAI_F) resulted in a R² of 0.71 and RMSE of 193 g m⁻² while assimilating the combination of GLAI_L and GLAI_F led to further improvements (R² = 0.76 and RMSE = 176 g m⁻²). Our results demonstrated the potential of using the fusion algorithms to improve crop growth monitoring and crop productivity estimation when the number of high resolution remote sensing data acquisitions is limited.  相似文献   

M-Quadtree索引:一种基于改进四叉树编码方法的云存储环境下空间索引方法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

付仲良  胡玉龙  翁宝凤  彭瑞 《测绘学报》2016,45(11):1342-1351

为了解决基于"键-值"模型的云存储环境仅支持简单的关键字查询,不支持多维空间查询的问题,提出了一种新的分布式空间索引方法——M-Quadtree索引。在索引构建过程中,设计了一种基于改进四叉树的空间数据划分方法,该方法规定了叶节点区域的最小数据量,通过四叉树叶节点的再合并,解决了划分后各子区域间存储量不平衡的问题,并且满足了MapReduce并行化要求。给出了MapReduce框架下M-Quadtree索引的快速构建、查询与更新算法,并在搭建的Hadoop平台进行了关键参数对索引效率的影响以及不同规模数据下索引的创建、查询和更新试验。与现有分布式空间索引的对比试验及分析结果表明,M-Quadtree索引在数据存储量负载均衡、算法并行化和空间查询效率等方面表现得更好。  相似文献   

Predictive geochemical mapping using environmental correlation     

《Applied Geochemistry》2016

The distribution of chemical elements at and near the Earth's surface, the so-called critical zone, is complex and reflects the geochemistry and mineralogy of the original substrate modified by environmental factors that include physical, chemical and biological processes over time.Geochemical data typically is illustrated in the form of plan view maps or vertical cross-sections, where the composition of regolith, soil, bedrock or any other material is represented. These are primarily point observations that frequently are interpolated to produce rasters of element distributions. Here we propose the application of environmental or covariate regression modelling to predict and better understand the controls on major and trace element geochemistry within the regolith. Available environmental covariate datasets (raster or vector) representing factors influencing regolith or soil composition are intersected with the geochemical point data in a spatial statistical correlation model to develop a system of multiple linear correlations. The spatial resolution of the environmental covariates, which typically is much finer (e.g. ∼90 m pixel) than that of geochemical surveys (e.g. 1 sample per 10-10,000 km²), carries over to the predictions. Therefore the derived predictive models of element concentrations take the form of continuous geochemical landscape representations that are potentially much more informative than geostatistical interpolations.Environmental correlation is applied to the Sir Samuel 1:250,000 scale map sheet in Western Australia to produce distribution models of individual elements describing the geochemical composition of the regolith and exposed bedrock. As an example we model the distribution of two elements – chromium and sodium. We show that the environmental correlation approach generates high resolution predictive maps that are statistically more accurate and effective than ordinary kriging and inverse distance weighting interpolation methods. Furthermore, insights can be gained into the landscape processes controlling element concentration, distribution and mobility from analysis of the covariates used in the model. This modelling approach can be extended to groups of elements (indices), element ratios, isotopes or mineralogy over a range of scales and in a variety of environments.  相似文献   

Reactive transport impacts on recovered freshwater quality during multiple partially penetrating wells (MPPW-)ASR in a brackish heterogeneous aquifer     

《Applied Geochemistry》2016

The use of multiple partially penetrating wells (MPPW) during aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) in brackish aquifers can significantly improve the recovery efficiency (RE) of unmixed injected water. The water quality changes by reactive transport processes in a field MPPW-ASR system and their impact on RE were analyzed. The oxic freshwater injected in the deepest of four wells was continuously enriched with sodium (Na⁺) and other dominant cations from the brackish groundwater due to cation exchange by repeating cycles of ‘freshening’. During recovery periods, the breakthrough of Na⁺ was retarded in the deeper and central parts of the aquifer by ‘salinization’. Cation exchange can therefore either increase or decrease the RE of MPPW-ASR compared to the RE based on conservative Cl⁻, depending on the maximum limits set for Na⁺, the aquifer’s cation exchange capacity, and the native groundwater and injected water composition. Dissolution of Fe and Mn-containing carbonates was stimulated by acidifying oxidation reactions, involving adsorbed Fe²⁺ and Mn²⁺ and pyrite in the pyrite-rich deeper aquifer sections. Fe²⁺ and Mn²⁺ remained mobile in anoxic water upon approaching the recovery proximal zone, where Fe²⁺ precipitated via MnO₂ reduction, resulting in a dominating Mn²⁺ contamination. Recovery of Mn²⁺ and Fe²⁺ was counteracted by frequent injections of oxygen-rich water via the recovering well to form Fe and Mn-precipitates and increase sorption. The MPPW-ASR strategy exposes a much larger part of the injected water to the deeper geochemical units first, which may therefore control the mobilization of undesired elements during MPPW-ASR, rather than the average geochemical composition of the target aquifer.  相似文献   

A note on “Origin of components in Chilean thermal waters” by     

《Journal of South American Earth Sciences》2016

Risacher et al. (2011) have presented voluminous data on thermal waters of Chile that is quite appreciable; however, their work still falls short on several counts. The most notable shortcoming of the work is the presentation and treatment of data. The interpretations are based on questionable premises (viz., extent of seawater intrusion) and considerations (viz., using average chemical composition of rock types for geochemical modeling, considering volcanic rocks as the only rock type in contact with the geothermal fluids) and assumptions not always substantiated by facts (with proper references) could have been corroborated. Use of Cl/Br ratio for discrimination purpose is unconvincing, considering the uncertainty in the measurement of low (<1 mg/L) Br concentration.  相似文献   

月球东海盆地综合解析与撞击初始条件的研究     

刘敬稳  刘建忠  郭弟均  籍进柱  王庆龙  李世杰 《岩石学报》2016,32(1):135-143

东海是月球上最年轻的多环撞击盆地,关于其形成机制的研究很多,但成果大都基于正撞击的机制提出的,虽然有部分学者提出东海是斜撞击的,但缺乏具体撞击参数。本文通过多源数据融合,综合分析LRO影像数据、LOLA地形数据、M~3高光谱数据和IIM高光谱数据,对东海地区的地貌特征、物质成分进行了较为系统的解译,发现在东海中央熔融区存在一条与东海撞击方向垂直的中央隆起区域(中央隆起线),其也是中央熔融区粗糙部分与光滑部分的分界线,结合撞击坑成坑理论,认为其可能是撞击过程冲击波作用引起的堆叠作用形成的。同时利用GRAIL数据及对该地区的重力异常的成因进行了分析,认为异常是由于压强、温度及岩石粘度的改变引起局部莫霍面抬升和中央熔融物的形成而出现的,进而估算出熔融物占盆地内物质的25%,约为1.1×10~6km~3。同时,对GRAIL数据的剖面分析结果也支持了本文的斜撞击理论。最后,综合多方面的信息和撞击理论获取东海盆地构造分布图,并根据中央隆起线、溅射物及线性构造的分布特征等,提出东海盆地理论上是由一直径在50~100km的撞击体以10~30km/s的速度自东偏北约20°~30°方向以20°~30°的角度斜撞击月表而形成的。这可为研究更早期的月球撞击坑提供理论参考。  相似文献