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11.
Earthquake disaster is still the number one among all natural disasters, particularly, in terms of destructive power in causing deaths. Can earthquake engineers control seismic casualties through the seismic design of buildings? For this purpose, a conception of casualty control based seismic design is presented and a “two-step decision-making” method is proposed for determining the optimum seismic design intensity (or ground-motion) for controlling both seismic death and economic losses. The key problems in establishing the model are to determine the appropriate socially acceptable level of earthquake mortality and establish the corresponding objective function and /or constraint conditions in determining the optimum seismic design intensity. Ten different grades of socially acceptable mortality are suggested and the final socially acceptable mortality level was proposed for seismic design based on a questionnaire that was distributed nationwide in China. Finally, the method was applied to eight cities with different seismic hazard in China and the effects of various grades of acceptable earthquake mortality on seismic design intensity are analyzed. 相似文献
12.
地震应急指挥辅助决策系统 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本系统将地震应急辅助自动化和人工应急数据处理有机结合于一体 ,能在地震震中定位后几十秒内自动生成震中位置图、裂度线分布图 ,完成震害快速分级评估 ,及应急具体详细方案选择 ,并能随应急工作进展快速调整应急方案、重新评估地震灾害。 相似文献
13.
应用阜新地区多年降水和土壤墒情气象资料,研究并建立了针对阜新地区的“利用秋季降水预测春播关键期土壤底墒”、“利用3～4月降水预测春播关键期土壤增墒量”、“利用降水量预测降水渗透深度”和“利用墒情递减率预测旱情趋势”等决策气象服务技术方法,并投入业务使用。 相似文献
14.
Despite knowledge-brokering being of high interest to public policy, there is a lack of research integrating the knowledge of stakeholders and scientists, principally because public policies remain viewed as top-down controlled. To help European research policies make a positive difference to society, there is a need to better engage stakeholders with the delivery of research and to demonstrate an impact and value that it brings. The pertinent question addressed by this communication is: how can a deeper and more systematic engagement of stakeholders be enabled through European research activities? Enabling stakeholder participation in European research activities requires there to be an incentive for researchers and stakeholders to engage, and the capacity of stakeholders to operate effectively in the research framework. Unsurprisingly, the establishment of communications and cultures conducive to shared problem solving is high priority, as is the need to work towards a governance structure that helps link research with policy outcomes, while at the same time resonating directly with stakeholders. The Regional Advisory Councils could be a strong force in bringing stakeholders knowledge to bear on the scientific issues relevant to management, but their strategy and capacity to mobilise the skills to do so are not yet ready. 相似文献
15.
Modeling is a crucial approach for understanding the past and exploring the future of coupled human-natural systems. However, uncertainty in various forms challenges inferences from modeling results. Model-based support for decision-making has increasingly adopted an emerging exploratory approach. This approach addresses uncertainty explicitly through systematically exploring the implications of modeling assumptions, aiming to enhance the robustness of inferences from models. Despite a variety of applications, the extent and the way(s) that exploratory modeling can deal with the challenges that arise from the uncertainty and complexity of decision-making with stakeholders has not yet been systematically framed. We address this gap in two ways. First, we present a taxonomy of the ways that exploratory modeling can be used to inform robust inferences in coupled human-natural systems by mapping the technical capabilities of this approach in relation to the diversity of past applications. This subsequently guides an investigation of the practical benefits and challenges of these capabilities in handling uncertainty and complexity. Second, we discuss different ways for integrating genuine stakeholder engagement into exploratory modeling through transdisciplinary research. Finally we outline some priorities for future expansion of this research area. 相似文献
16.
This paper analyses the perceptions of Spanish fishermen working in Atlantic fishing grounds on current fishery regulation measures and the possibility of introducing transferable rights as is established in the EC's latest proposal to reform the Common Fisheries Policy. A survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews and ordered logistic and multiple regression models to identify which characteristics influence fishermen's perceptions and attitudes. The results show that the fleet segments most in favour of implementing ITQs correspond to industrial fishing, while the smaller-scale fisheries (artisanal, gillnets, longline and coastal trawl) are more in favour of a system involving individual effort (fishing days or kW days), transferable or otherwise. 相似文献
17.
平凉地区农作物布局的最佳种植决策 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
采用陇东地区及相邻的固原、长武、陇县共18个站1951～2000年的气象资料,计算了各站历年各时段干旱指数,划分了干旱等级,结合全区农作物夏、秋粮、小麦、玉米、高粱、马铃薯、油料种植面积、单产等资料,分析了气候因素与作物产量的关系。选用线性规划和减产率矩阵相结合的方法,建立确定型和随机型种植决策模型,优选出可供实施种植比例的最佳方案。结果表明：不论夏秋作物还是五种作物均在秋春连旱年减产率最大,达30％～40％之间,在无气候干旱年,其减产率最小,为12％～15％。随机型决策接近历年的情况,决策意义不大;确定型决策效果比较显著,其综合减产率普遍少1％-3％,有优化决策价值。虽然确定型优于随机型,但其依赖于长期天气趋势预报的准确程度,应用种植决策还是以随机型与确定型兼用较为稳妥,风险性小。 相似文献
18.
The creation of ‘usable science’ is widely promoted by many environmental change focused research programs. Few studies however, have examined the relationship between research conducted as part of such programs and the decision-making outcomes that the work is supposed to advance, and is constrained by limited methodological development on how to empirically assess the ‘usability’ of science. Herein, this paper develops a conceptual model and assessment rubric to quantitatively and systematically evaluate the usability of climate change research for informing decision-making. We focus on the process through which data is collected, analyzed and reported and examine the extent to which key principles of usable science are integrated into project design, using grant proposals as our data source. The approach is applied to analyze climate change research conducted as part of the International Polar Year in Canada, with 23 projects identified as having explicit goals to inform decision-making.While the creation of usable science was promoted by funded projects in the International Polar Year, this was not generally reflected in research design: fewer than half determined objectives with input of decision makers, decision context was not widely considered, and knowledge users were not widely reported to be engaged in assessing the quality of data or in resolving conflict in evidence. The importance of science communication was widely emphasized, although only 8/23 projects discussed tailoring specific results for end user needs. Thus while International Polar Year research has made significant advances in understanding the human dimensions of Arctic climate change, key attributes necessary for determining success in linking science to decision-making (pertinence, quality, timeliness) were not captured by many projects. Integrating these attributes into research design from the outset is essential for creating usable science, and needs to be at the forefront of future research programs which aim to advance societal outcomes. The framework for assessing usability here, while developed and tested in an Arctic climate change context, has broader applicability in the general environmental change field. 相似文献
19.
Coastal zones are characterized by large concentrations of population, unique and vital ecosystems, and many industrial and other economic activities on land and at sea. The many and diverse activities result in different types of conflicts of use and access to resources in coastal areas. This calls for integrated management of coastal zones. However, successful integrated coastal management must be supported by reliable data and information that will lead to informed decision-making and planning. The International Oceanographic Data and Information Exchange (IODE) network which is a project of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO is playing a key role in capacity building for ocean and coastal data and information management in Africa. Currently, about 25 data and information centers have been established in coastal African countries through these efforts. These data and information centers should support effective management of coastal zones. 相似文献
20.
This contribution presents a method for assessing the risk of water degradation in harbour domains. The method describes a normalized Index of Risk, ranging from 0 to 1, which determines the risk of water degradation due to a pollution event. A branch-decision scheme of decision-making theories was implemented in order to obtain this index. This method evaluates the cost of each decision as a function of the vulnerability, proximity and toxicity of the potential contaminant. A novel feature of this method is that the risk is defined by considering the physical behaviour of the harbour (i.e. water circulation patterns). Regions where water residence time is high are considered more vulnerable to pollutant releases. This method could be implemented from an operational perspective, in which case an oceanographic operational system could be used to obtain current forecasts which in turn would be used to forecast risk maps. 相似文献