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This paper develops a new method for decision-making under uncertainty. The method, Bayesian Programming (BP), addresses a class of two-stage decision problems with features that are common in environmental and water resources. BP is applicable to two-stage combinatorial problems characterized by uncertainty in unobservable parameters, only some of which is resolved upon observation of the outcome of the first-stage decision. The framework also naturally accommodates stochastic behavior, which has the effect of impeding uncertainty resolution. With the incorporation of systematic methods for decision search and Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian analysis, BP addresses limitations of other decision-analytic approaches for this class of problems, including conventional decision tree analysis and stochastic programming. The methodology is demonstrated with an illustrative problem of water quality pollution control. Its effectiveness for this problem is compared to alternative approaches, including a single-stage model in which expected costs are minimized and a deterministic model in which uncertain parameters are replaced by their mean values. A new term, the expected value of including uncertainty resolution, or EVIUR, is introduced and evaluated for the illustrative problem. It is a measure of the worth of incorporating the experimental value of decisions into an optimal decision-making framework. For the illustrative problem, the two-stage adaptive management framework extracted up to approximately 50% of the gains of perfect information. The strength and limitations of the method are discussed and conclusions are presented. 相似文献
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The paper examines women’s involvement in residential location/relocation decision-making among tenants in Ibadan, Nigeria. The data used in the paper is from a larger cross-sectional survey of 721 households on gender and housing in Ibadan, Nigeria. The analysis in the paper focused on 365 subgroup of households that are tenants in the sample survey. Analysis of variance (ANOVA), correlation and simple statistical techniques such as frequencies and percentages were used to analyse the data. The result shows that generally there is low involvement of women in residential location/relocation decision-making. There is significant intra-urban variation in the involvement of women in residential location/relocation decision-making. Significant relationships are found between the level of women involvement in residential location/relocation decision-making and their educational level, occupation, and marital status. In addition, significant relationships are found between cultural and social support variables and involvement of women in residential location/relocation decisions. These results suggest that female empowerment and greater involvement in decision-making could be greatly enhanced by improved access of women to education, employment, the provision of good and reliable social support facilities and a reorientation of women’s view about responsibility for household housing provision. 相似文献
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中国地震局地震应急响应信息服务平台是国家级震后各类应急产品汇聚与共享平台。平台为各级应急指挥人员提供全链条地震应急响应业务信息,为应急指挥决策提供信息支撑。平台具有地震应急服务响应等级信息服务、地震应急产品汇聚、现场灾情汇聚和应急响应工作资料支撑等功能。平台用户涉及中国地震局下属各单位,信息服务内容涉及指挥中心、地震速报、震情研判、灾情快报和现场应急。平台通过用户分组和任务分工实现业务管理和业务工作的无缝衔接,充分发挥整个地震局系统各单位的业务优势,实现各单位应急协同和业务联动,在多次重大破坏性地震应急期间迅速完成了信息的汇聚与共享,为应急处置工作的顺利开展提供了强有力的信息支撑。 相似文献
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Increasing evidence suggests that climate change poses direct and indirect threats to national and human security. However, the degree to which such knowledge of the risks informs decision-making remains poorly understood for key security communities, including the U.S. Department of Defense. Here, through document analysis and interviews with climate security researchers and practitioners from the U.S. military community, we evaluate perceptions about and the degree to which (i) these individuals believe climate change is a threat to U.S. national security interests, and (ii) the U.S. Department of Defense integrates climate security science into its decision-making. Our research suggests a complex answer. Public statements and reports indicate U.S. Department of Defense leadership considers climate change a security threat of strategic importance, and most researchers interviewed believe the U.S. Department of Defense prioritizes climate security as a near-term threat. However, evidence of climate security threats is only selectively integrated into planning and decision-making. Interviews suggest several barriers and enablers to evidence-based decision-making within the U.S. Department of Defense. Barriers include mixed beliefs in the near-term urgency of the threat, changing political environments, and insufficient co-production of actionable science across the levels of war, including issues of data collection, sharing, and analysis. Enablers include increased awareness after climate-related impacts, strong leadership support, and knowledge transfer and convening forums. Improved insight into the production and use of climate security knowledge is crucial for the task of safeguarding human and national security in a changing climate. 相似文献
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Saskia Hommes Suzanne J.M.H. Hulscher Jan P.M. Mulder Henriëtte S. Otter Hans Th.A. Bressers 《Marine Policy》2009
The Dutch government wants to expand Mainport Rotterdam, one of the largest ports in the world, by land reclamation in the North Sea. This may affect the Wadden Sea, a unique wetlands area protected by the European Bird and Habitat Directives. To assess the impact of the port extension on the Wadden Sea, an Appropriate Assessment procedure was carried out. We investigated how stakeholders’ perceptions were dealt with and how knowledge was used in this decision-making process. Our findings form an argument for practitioners in marine and coastal management to choose a process-oriented approach to deal with complex issues. 相似文献
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Public participation in decision-making about development has many benefits especially in the coastal zone and in the near-shore marine environment. This research expands the discussion of public involvement in decisions about marine resource use by examining public participation in environmental impact assessment as relevant for offshore renewable energy facilities. A review of empirical and theoretical research supports the development of a framework for further analysis. The framework consists of five main features: (1) effective communication, (2) broad-based inclusion, (3) prioritization, (4) early three-way learning, and (5) alternatives analysis. The paper's concluding sections explore the relevance of such a framework and indicate possible applications. 相似文献
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Public participation is a key ingredient of good governance and there are many advantages of involving stakeholders in the decision-making process. The European Commission identified the lack of stakeholder involvement as one of the major weaknesses of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). As such, the 2002 Reform of the CFP aimed to improve its system of governance by increasing the involvement of stakeholders in decision-making. Over the last decade, Scottish inshore waters have seen an increase in management measures focused on involving fishers, delegating responsibilities and decentralizing management. The present document investigates commercial inshore fishers’ perceptions of participation in the decision-making process and attitudes towards a new management regime – the Inshore Fisheries Groups (IFGs) – which aims to increase participation in and decentralization of inshore fisheries management. A survey was conducted, through face-to-face interviews, and ordered logistic and multiple regression models created to identify which characteristics influence fishers’ perceptions and attitudes. The present analysis concluded that, 5 years subsequent to the reform of the CFP, the majority of inshore fishers perceive themselves not to be consulted or involved in the decision-making process. However, and despite the fact that fishers are not completely certain of the potential of the IFGs to increase their participation in the management process, they have an overall positive attitude towards their implementation. 相似文献
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