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91.
92.
Erik Rüttener Juan José Egozcue Dieter Mayer-Rosa Stephan Mueller 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):165-178
Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law. 相似文献
93.
Abdallah I. Husein Malkawi Robert Y. Liang Jamal H. Nusairat Azm S. Al-Homoud 《Natural Hazards》1995,12(2):139-151
Earthquake hazard maps for Syria are presented in this paper. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) on bedrock, both with 90% probability of not being exceeded during a life time of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively are developed. The probabilistic PGA and MMI values are evaluated assuming linear sources (faults) as potential sources of future earthquakes. A new attenuation relationship for this region is developed. Ten distinctive faults of potential earthquakes are identified in and around Syria. The pertinent parameters of each fault, such as theb-parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter formula, the annual rate
4 and the upper bound magnitudem
1 are determined from two sets of seismic data: the historical earthquakes and the instrumentally recorded earthquake data (AD 1900–1992). The seismic hazard maps developed are intended for preliminary analysis of new designs and seismic check of existing civil engineering structures. 相似文献
94.
A. V. Krivov L. L. Sokolov V. V. Dikarev 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1995,63(3-4):313-339
This paper deals with dynamics of impact ejecta from Phobos and Deimos initially on near-circular equatorial orbits around Mars. For particles emitted in a wide size regime of 1 micron and greater, and taking into account the typical particle lifetimes to be less than 100 years, the motion is governed by two perturbing forces: solar radiation pressure and influence of Mars' oblateness. The equations of motion of particles in Lagrangian non-singular elements are deduced and solved, both analytically and numerically, for different-sized ejecta. We state that the coupled effect of both forces above is essential so that on no account can the oblateness of Mars are be neglected. The dynamics of grains prove to be quite different for the ejecta of Phobos and Deimos. For Deimos, the qualitative results are relatively simple and imply oscillations of eccentricity and long-term variations of orbital inclination, with amplitudes and periods both depending on grain size. For Phobos, the dynamics are shown to be much more complicated, and we discuss it in detail. We have found an intriguous peculiar behavior of debris near 300 µm in size. Another finding is that almost all the Phobos ejecta with radii less than 30 µm (against the values of 5 to 20 µm adopted earlier by many authors) should be rapidly lost by collisions with martian surface. The results of the paper may be the base for constructing an improved model of dust belts that presumably exist around Mars. 相似文献
95.
本文对成都市总人口、建成区面积等11个因子、作了主成份回归L-S估计和M-估计,讨论了成都城市发展对“热岛”强度的主要影响因子。结果表明,城区房屋建筑面积及总人口数是影响城市气候(气温)的主要因子,其次为城市人口总户数、建成面积等。 文中,对回归方程进行了拟合计算,回归效果比较满意(尤其是稳健回归)。 相似文献
96.
Nicole Borderies Pierre-yves Longaretti 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1990,49(1):69-98
The purpose of this paper is to present a model for the radiation pressure acceleration of a spherical satellite, due to the radiation reflected by a planet with a uniform albedo. A particular choice of variables allows one to reduce the surface integrals over the lit portion of the planet visible to the satellite to one-dimensional integrals. Exact analytical expressions are found for the integrals corresponding to the case where the spacecraft does not "see" the terminator. The other integrals can be computed either numerically, or analytically in an approximate form. The results are compared with those of Lochry (1966). The model is applied to Magellan, a spacecraft orbiting Venus. 相似文献
97.
中国古代常规日食记录的整理分析 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
收集并分析了公元前8世纪到公元15世纪的中国古代密集、简略而公式化的日食记录。基于这些记录整理成一个包括938条日食记录的计算机可读形式的“常规日食记录表”。该表给出每次记录的原日期、公历日期、当时首都、所属朝代以及一部分记录所载的进一步详情。对该表的构成作了介绍,并对这些历史记录进行了初步的分析和归纳。 相似文献
98.
The main result of this work is to show that macroseismic intensity decay with distance strongly depends on the epicentral intensity. An attenuation law that takes this parameter into account is proposed for Metropolitan France, from the analysis of SISFRANCE macroseismic database. Such a model significantly reduces the difference between observed and theoretical intensities. A map of the attenuation variations is also set up for Metropolitan France. No major site effects are observed, but at a broad scale, young Alpine regions display a stronger attenuation than old Hercynian regions. To cite this article: P. Arroucau et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006). 相似文献
99.
Herein we document and interpret an absolute chronological dating attempt using geomagnetic paleointensity data from a post-glacial sediment drape on the western Antarctic Peninsula continental shelf. Our results demonstrate that absolute dating can be established in Holocene Antarctic shelf sediments that lack suitable material for radiocarbon dating. Two jumbo piston cores of 10-m length were collected in the Western Bransfield Basin. The cores preserve a strong, stable remanent magnetization and meet the magnetic mineral assemblage criteria recommended for reliable paleointensity analyses. The relative paleomagnetic intensity records were tuned to published absolute and relative paleomagnetic stacks, which yielded a record of the last ∼8500 years for the post-glacial drape. Four tephra layers associated with documented eruptions of nearby Deception Island have been dated at 3.31, 3.73, 4.44, and 6.86 ± 0.07 ka using the geomagnetic paleointensity method. This study establishes the dual role of geomagnetic paleointensity and tephrochronology in marine sediments across both sides of the northern Antarctic Peninsula. 相似文献
100.
Structural changes during dehydration and subsequent decomposition in thaumasite Ca3Si(SO4)(CO3)(OH)6·12 H2O were studied by in situ synchrotron powder diffraction between 303 and 1,098 K. Evolution of the crystal structure was observed through 28 structure refinements, by full profile Rietveld analysis performed in the P63 space group, between 300 and 417 K, whereupon the thaumasite structure was observed to breakdown. Within this temperature range, the cell parameters of thaumasite increased as a function of temperature in a nearly linear fashion up to about 393 K, at which temperature, a slight slope change was observed. Above 400 K, the thermogravimetric analysis revealed that the dehydration process proceeded very rapidly while the refined occupancy of water molecules dropped below a critical level, leading to instability in the thaumasite structure. At a same time, a remarkable change in the unit cell parameters occurring at about 417 K indicated that the crystal structure of thaumasite collapsed on losing the crystallization water and it turned amorphous. This result indicated that the dehydration/decomposition of thaumasite was induced by the departure of the crystallization water. At about 950 K, anhydrite and cristobalite crystallized from the thaumasite glass. 相似文献