PREDICTION AND VERIFICATION OF THE 1997-1999 EL NINOAND LA NINA BY USING AN INTERMEDIATE OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLED MODEL^*          下载免费PDF全文

LI Qingquan  ZHAO Zongci  DING Yihui 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2001,15(2):144-159

The numerical simulations,hindcasts and verifications of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) have been conducted by using a dynamical tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere coupled model named NCCo.The results showed that the model had performed reasonable simulations of the major El Nino episodes in the history,and the model forecast skill in 1990s had been significantly improved.NCCo model has been used to predict the tropical Pacific SSTA since January 1997.The comparisons between predictions and observations indicated that the occurrence,evolution and ending of the 1997-1998 El Nino episode have been predicted fairly well by using this model.Also,the La Nina episode that began in the autumn of 1998 and the developing tendency of the tropical Pacific SSTA during the year 1999 have been predictedsuccessfully.The forecast skills of NCCo model during the 1997-1999 El Nino and La Nina events are above 0.5 at 0-14 lead months.  相似文献   

南海北部1987～1988年颗粒物质和硅藻通量的季节性变化:季风气候与 El Nino的响应   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

郑玉龙  王汝建  郑连福  陈荣华  陈建芳 《第四纪研究》2001,21(4):359-365

南海北部1987年9月～1988年10月沉积物捕获器中颗粒物质和硅藻通量的季节性变化受到季风气候的控制.颗粒物质与硅藻在东北和西南季风盛行期增加,在季风转变期减少.浅层和深层的颗粒总通量、蛋白石通量、碳酸钙通量、蛋白石/颗粒总通量比值、碳酸钙/颗粒总通量比值、有机碳/磷的比值以及浅层硅藻Thalassionema nitzschioides、Coscinodiscus excentricus、Coscinodiscus nodulifer、Nitzschia marina和Rhizosolenia bergonii的通量在东北季风期间明显地增加了,这些变化可能与1987年～1988年发生的EINino事件相关.  相似文献   

厄尔尼诺与亚洲季风对港澳地区降雨影响   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3  

周文  简裕庚  陈创买  梁嘉静 《热带地理》2001,21(1):36-40

分析研究了香港1853～1997年（145年）、澳门1901～1997年（97年）的月和年降雨量的一些特征。主要结论是：（1）香港、澳门年降雨量存在准2～6年的周期振荡，澳门年降雨量有很强的长期趋势，香港年降雨量无明显趋势；（2）香港、澳门年内雨量的峰值出现在西南季风期（6月和8月），而谷值在东北季风期（12月）；（3）EI Nino事件年，香港、澳门年降雨量距平百分率多为正，降雨偏多。在La Nila事件年，香港、澳门年降雨量距平百分率多为负，降雨偏少。  相似文献   

The earthquake sequence of May 1951 at Jucuapa, El Salvador     

N.N. Ambraseys  J.J. Bommer  E. Buforn  A. Udías 《Journal of Seismology》2001,5(1):23-39

Three earthquakes that happened over two days in May 1951 caused extensive damage to villages in a small area of eastern El Salvador (Central America). Contemporary hypocentral solutions indicated focal depths, confirmed by re-calculations using available seismic data, of the order of 90 km, suggesting events associated with the subducted Cocos plate. Macroseismic observations strongly indicate that the earthquakes were of very shallow focus and this is supported by wave-form modeling and the appearance of seismograms recorded in Guatemala. A re-evaluation of the location and source characteristics for these events is presented, together with a fault plane solution and additional macroseismic evidence. The implications for seismic hazard and risk assessment in Central America, where shallow earthquakes of moderate magnitude, frequently occurring in clusters, pose the greatest threat to settlements which, like the area affected by these events, are concentrated along the axis of Quaternary volcanoes.  相似文献   

El Ni?o影响热带大气季节内振荡的动力学研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

李崇银  李桂龙 《大气科学》1996,20(2):159-168

根据El Ni?o期间热带大气状态的异常特征，确定了在简单大气动力模式中描写海温异常的参数化方法。然后利用斜压半地转两层模式从动力学上分析研究了El Ni?o对热带大气低频波的影响。理论分析同有关热带大气季节内振荡的资料分析结果完全一致，El Ni?o事件使热带大气季节内振荡减弱。  相似文献   

A STUDY ON THE VARIATIONS OF ANNUAL FREQUENCY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC DURING THE LAST HUNDRED YEARS     

张光智  张先恭  魏凤英 《热带气象学报(英文版)》1996,2(1):67-75

In this paper, a study on the variation of annual frequency of tropical cyclone (TC) and its relation with SST, Southern Oscillation index, sunspot relative number and number of days for specific circulation patterns was made by using 1884-1988 data of annual frequency for Northwest Pacific TC occurrence, which had been corrected to tendencies.Preliminary results indicated that in the variation of annual TC frequency there exist obvious p.6riods of 21, 31, 15 and 6 years and sustaining periods lasting 12 years in average.Well-defined processes of inflexion were observed in 1931, 1959 and 1977 over the past hundred years.The results also suggested insignificant statistic tendency of annual TC frequency increasing (decreasing) in winter/spring (summer/autumn )in the El Nino years.When the stratosphere was in the zonally westerly phase, the northern zonal circulation would abnormally develop and solar activity would enhance to favour the generation and development of TC.  相似文献   

VARIATIONS IN THE TELECONNECTION INTENSITY INDICES AND THEIR REMOTE RESPONSE TO THE EL NINO EVENTS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE^*          下载免费PDF全文

Zhu Qiangen  Shi Neng 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1992,6(4):433-445

In this study,the monthly and seasonal teleconnection intensity indices of the Pacific/North American(PNA),Western Atlantic(WA),Western Pacific(WP),Eastern Atlantic(EA) and Eurasian(EU) patterns for the period from 1951 through 1990 are calculated.On this basis,their climatic variations and the relationship between the five teleconnection intensity indices and the El Nino events are examined.It is noted that when El Nino is at its mature stage(winter),the weak WP pattern is mainly characteristic of the circulation and the strong PNA pattern is the next.In summer when El Nino occurs and develops,the strong EU,weak WP and weak WA patterns are the main characteristics without the PNA circulation anomalies.Finally,by the nonlinear mapping method a nonlinear mapping diagram is established for diagnosing El Nino using three summer teleeonuection intensity indices and May and August Southern Oscillation Indices(SOIs).Thus,the El Nino phenomenon occurring in 1991 is diagnosed.Besides,the winter atmospheric circulation of the 1991/1992 El Nino is found to be the weak WP pattern and the PNA pattern is also weak.  相似文献   

IAP GCM模式大气波谱结构及其在厄尔尼诺年的异常     

王盘兴  刘家铭  沈素红 《南京气象学院学报》1992,(1)

本文分析了中国科学院大气物理研究所大气环流模式(IAP GCM)模式大气波谱结构(沿纬圈的谐波波谱和时域上的频率谱)及其在厄尔尼诺年的异常。结果表明,超长波是低纬波动的主要空间形式,准40天振荡在一定地理区域内显著存在,并与观测结果有一定联系,它们在厄尔尼诺年均发生明显异常。本工作对鉴定GCM性能及开发GCM的研究领域可能是一种有益的尝试。  相似文献   

北半球500百帕极地环流与厄尔尼诺、南方涛动及我国气温场的遥相关     

施能  罗伯良 《南京气象学院学报》1992,(2)

本文用1951—1984年的资料对500百帕、65°N以北的高度场作自然正交展开,用模糊聚类对典型场归类。指出,极涡月平均场有三种形态,1月份平均场形态较特殊;大尺度距平场也有三种形态,4月份距平场形态较特殊。此外,研究了典型场的时间权重系数与厄尔尼诺、南方涛动的关系。指出,厄尔尼诺现象发生的当年4月、10月极地大尺度距平场有明显的异常特征。这种极地环流异常已明显影响到我国4月份、10月份的气温场。因而,可能是厄尔尼诺年我国气温4月偏低、10月偏高的一个重要原因。  相似文献   

1986/1987厄尔尼诺期间的西风强化和海气相互作用过程分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

于惠苓  蒲书箴 《大气科学》1992,16(4):427-435

本文利用欧洲中期数值天气预报中心(ECMWF)西北太平洋上空(25°—35°N,110°—180°)850 hPa客观分析的西风分量,计算了1986/1987厄尔尼诺期间的西风强度.结果表明1986年12月—1987年5月西风的累计强度比1986/1987厄尔尼诺前后诸年份同期的西风更强,这种强化与历次厄尔尼诺期间西北太平洋副热带高压的加强是一致的,都反映了哈德莱环流的强化.为了探讨大气环流发生这种变化的原因,作者利用中美海气观测期间的海洋资料,说明了热带两太平洋东部对低纬度大气异常的加热和西部边界流向中纬度海洋输送热量的减少是两个十分重要的原因.  相似文献