1987年8月2日江西省寻乌MS5.5级地震的震害与烈度分布     

黄莉菁  黄昭  郑师春 《华南地震》2002,22(4):1-8

从寻乌5.5级地震的地震地质构造背景，宏观震害考察结果。结合近场强地面运动观测中几次较大地震的加速度峰值。分析宏观烈度分布特征。认为烈度分布特征除了受构造控制外，还与地形，地基土质条件有关，极震区长轴方向显示鸡笼嶂-寻乌-八尺北西向断裂是寻乌地震的主要发震断层，发震构造受控于华南块体构造应力场，发震区处于北北东向河源-邵武断裂中段和东西向断裂交汇部位。  相似文献   

Validation through HVSR measurements of a method for the quick detection of site amplification effects from intensity data: an application to a seismic area in Northern Italy     

Vera D'Amico  Marco Mucciarelli   《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2002,22(6)

An instrumental validation is attempted of an innovative approach devoted to the quick individuation, from macroseismic data, of site amplification phenomena able to significantly modify seismic hazard levels expected on the basis of average propagation effects only. According to this methodology, two evaluations of hazard are performed at each investigated locality: the former, obtained by epicentral intensity data ‘reduced’ at the site through a probabilistic attenuation function and, the latter, computed by integrating such data with seismic effects actually observed at the site during past earthquakes. The comparison, for each locality, between these two hazard estimates allow to orientate the identification of those sites where local amplifications of earthquake ground motion could be significant. In order to check such methodology, indications obtained in this way from macroseismic data are compared with the estimates of transfer functions performed through the HVSR technique applied to microtremors. Results concerning municipalities located in a seismic area of Northern Italy indicate a good agreement between macroseismic and instrumental estimates.  相似文献   

The use of modern statistical theories in the assessment of earthquake hazard, with application to quiet regions of eastern North America     

G. R. Dargahi-Noubary   《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2002,22(5)

It is generally accepted that both deterministic and statistical approaches are useful for the characterization of earthquake hazard. Although the most reliable estimates of seismic hazard can only be based on an improved understanding of the earthquake mechanism, efficient utilization of the appropriate methods provided by recent statistical theories is also important in seismic risk analysis. This is especially true in regions where the connection between seismicity and geologic structure is tenuous at best. We are particularly interested in developing better statistical treatments of data for regions with little known seismic activity. To this end, we have applied three statistical methods to the historical record of seismicity in relatively quiet regions of eastern North America. These are: (1) the threshold method for tail inference, a new theory for modeling earthquakes with sizes above a given threshold, (2) the ‘bootstrap’ technique in which the characteristics of an unknown population are simulated by replacing the true population by an estimated one, and (3) a technique to estimate the number of earthquakes below a given size, in order to compensate for the under-reporting of small earthquakes in most catalogs. A combination of these techniques has been used to estimate the probabilities of future large earthquakes for the regions studied. Because of limitations imposed by existing catalogs, the size estimate used has been maximum intensity.  相似文献   

Most likely locations of large earthquakes in the Kanto and Tokai areas, Japan, based on the local recurrence times     

Max Wyss  Shozo Matsumura 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》2002,131(2):173-184

We examined the hypothesis that minima in local recurrence time, T_L, or equivalently maxima in local probability, P_L, may map asperities in the Kanto and Tokai areas of Japan, where the earthquake catalog of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) is complete at the M=1.5 (M1.5) level. We mapped T_L (P_L) based on the a- and b-values of the nearest earthquakes within 20 km of every node of a grid spaced 0.01° for M7 target events. Only earthquakes within the top 33 km were used. The b-values increase strongly with depth, in several areas. Therefore, some of the T_L (P_L) anomalies are not revealed if data from the entire crustal seismogenic zone are mixed. Thus, we mapped T_L (P_L) separately for the top 15 km and the rest of the depth range, as well as for the entire seismogenic crust. The resulting T_L- and P_L-maps show that approximately 12% of the total area shows anomalously short recurrence times. Out of six shallow target events with M≥6.5 and which occurred since 1890, five are located within the anomalous areas with T_L <450 years. We interpret this to mean that areas with anomalously short T_L map asperities, which are more likely than other areas to generate future target events. The probability that this result is due to chance is vanishingly small. The great Kanto rupture of 1923 appears to have initiated in the most significant asperity we mapped in the study area. One anomaly is located in the northeastern part of the area of the proposed future rupture of the Tokai earthquake, and another one at its southwestern corner. The absolute values of T_L calculated are uncertain because they depend on the size of the volume used for the calculation.  相似文献   

Isotope variations in a Sierra Nevada snowpack and their relation to meltwater     

Padinare V. Unnikrishna  Jeffrey J. McDonnell  Carol Kendall   《Journal of Hydrology》2002,260(1-4):38-57

Isotopic variations in melting snow are poorly understood. We made weekly measurements at the Central Sierra Snow Laboratory, California, of snow temperature, density, water equivalent and liquid water volume to examine how physical changes within the snowpack govern meltwater δ¹⁸O. Snowpack samples were extracted at 0.1 m intervals from ground level to the top of the snowpack profile between December 1991 and April 1992. Approximately 800 mm of precipitation fell during the study period with δ¹⁸O values between −21.35 and −4.25‰. Corresponding snowpack δ¹⁸O ranged from −22.25 to −6.25‰. The coefficient of variation of δ¹⁸O in snowpack levels decreased from −0.37 to −0.07 from winter to spring, indicating isotopic snowpack homogenization. Meltwater δ¹⁸O ranged from −15.30 to −8.05‰, with variations of up to 2.95‰ observed within a single snowmelt episode, highlighting the need for frequent sampling. Early snowmelt originated in the lower snowpack with higher δ¹⁸O through ground heat flux and rainfall. After the snowpack became isothermal, infiltrating snowmelt displaced the higher δ¹⁸O liquid in the lower snowpack through a piston flow process. Fractionation analysis using a two-component mixing model on the isothermal snowpack indicated that δ¹⁸O in the initial and final half of major snowmelt was 1.30‰ lower and 1.45‰ higher, respectively, than the value from simple mixing. Mean snowpack δ¹⁸O on individual profiling days showed a steady increase from −15.15 to −12.05‰ due to removal of lower δ¹⁸O snowmelt and addition of higher δ¹⁸O rainfall. Results suggest that direct sampling of snowmelt and snow cores should be undertaken to quantify tracer input compositions adequately. The snowmelt sequence also suggests that regimes of early lower δ¹⁸O and later higher δ¹⁸O melt may be modeled and used in catchment tracing studies.  相似文献   

Evaluating Earthquake-Triggered Landslide Hazard at the Basin Scale Through Gis in the Upper Sele River Valley   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Domenico Capolongo  Alberto Refice  Joseph Mankelow 《Surveys in Geophysics》2002,23(6):595-625

To evaluate techniques for assessing earthquake-triggeredlandslide hazard in the Southern Apennines (Italy), a GIS-based analysis was used to modelseismically induced slope deformations. Geological, geotechnical, geomorphological and seismologicaldata were integrated into a standard earthquake slope stability model. The model assessed thelandslide potential that existed during the 1980 Irpinian earthquake in the Upper Sele river Valley.The standard Newmark displacement analysis, widely used for predicting the location of shallowunstable slopes, does not take into account errors and/or uncertainties in the input parameters.Therefore, a probabilistic Newmark displacement analysis technique has been used. Probabilistictechniques allow, e.g., an estimation of the probability that a slope will exceed a certain criticalvalue of Newmark displacement. In our probabilistic method, a Monte-Carlo based simulation modelis used in conjunction with a GIS. The random variability of geotechnical data is modelled by probabilitydensity functions (pdfs), while for the seismic input three different regression laws wereconsidered. Input probability distributions are sampled and the resulting values input into empiricalrelations for estimating Newmark displacement. The outcome is a map in which to each siteis related a spatial probability distribution for the expected displacement in response to seismic loading.Results of the experiments show a high grade of uncertainty in the application of the Newmarkanalysis both for the deterministic and probabilistic approach in a complex geological setting suchas the high Sele valley, quite common in the Southern Apennines. They show a strong dependence onthe reliability of the spatial data used in input, so that, when the model is used at basin scale,results are strongly influenced by local environmental condition (e.g., topography, lithology, groundwatercondition) and decrease the model performance.  相似文献   

Evaluation of the seismic hazard of Lebanon     

M. Harajli  S. Sadek  R. Asbahan 《Journal of Seismology》2002,6(2):257-277

This paper presents the results of a study undertaken todetermine the seismic hazard of Lebanon. The seismic hazard evaluation wasconducted using probabilistic methods of hazard analysis. Potential sourcesof seismic activities that affect Lebanon were identified and the earthquakerecurrence relationships of these sources were developed from instrumentalseismology data, historical records, and earlier studies undertaken toevaluate the seismic hazard of neighboring countries. The sensitivityof the results to different assumptions regarding the seismic sources in theLebanese segment and choice of the attenuation relationship wasevaluated. Maps of peak ground acceleration contours, based on 10percent of probability of exceedance in 50 years and 100 years time spans,were developed.  相似文献   

区域环境变迁与持续发展的互动关系   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

胡丽芳 《热带地理》2002,22(3):214-218

区域历史进程中持续发展与环境变迁表现出了复杂的互动关系，两种动态过程紧密地交织在一起，通过人类活动互相作用，互相影响，持续发展，环境变迁与人类活动的内容在不同时代表现出不同的主题，并受到自然和人为因素的调节与控制，文中还简要阐明了当代可持续发展的主题，指出解决PRED问题要注意控制人口数量，提高人口素质；消除贫困，达到全球环境共有共治共保共享。  相似文献   

A study on the early-warning technique concerning debris flow disasters     

ZHOU Jinxing  Wang Lixian  XIE Baoyuan  FEI Shimin  Wang Xilin 《地理学报(英文版)》2002,12(3)

According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destructive strength, the debris flow torrent, high sand-carrying capacity flush flood torrent and common flush flood by the techniques. In this paper, the classification indices system and the quantitative rating methods are presented. Based on torrent classification, debris flow torrent hazard zone mapping techniques by which the debris flow disaster early-warning object can be ascertained accurately are identified. The key techniques of building the debris flow disaster neural network (NN)real time forecasting model are given detailed explanations in this paper, including the determination of neural node at the input layer, the output layer and the implicit layer, the construction of knowledge source and the initial weight value and so on. With this technique, the debris flow disaster real-time forecasting neural network model is built according to the rainfall features of the historical debris flow disasters, which includes multiple rain factors such as rainfall of the disaster day, the rainfall of 15 days before the disaster day, the maximal rate of rainfall in one hour and ten minutes. It can forecast the probability, critical rainfall of eruption of the debris flows, through the real-time rainfall monitoring or weather forecasting. Based on the torrent classification and hazard zone mapping, combined with rainfall monitoring in the rainy season and real-time forecasting models, the debris flow disaster early-warning system is built. In this system, the GIS technique, the advanced international software and hardware are applied, which makes the system′s performance steady with good expansibility. The system is a visual information system that serves management and decision-making, which can facilitate timely inspect of the variation of the torrent type and hazardous zone, the torrent management, the early-warning of disasters and the disaster reduction and prevention.  相似文献   

塔里木河中游天然植被的数量分类与排序研究   总被引：13，自引：4，他引：13  

李涛  尹林克  严成 《干旱区地理》2003,26(2):173-179

通过塔里木河中下游天然植被带的调查研究，应用数量分类(TWINSPAN)和排序(CCA)方法，对塔里木河中下游地区天然植被类型进行了划分，并探讨了决定该地区天然植物群落类型的主要环境因子。该地区天然植被可分为4个植被型组，4个植被型，6种植被亚型，9个群系，15个群丛。通过对8个环境因子的CCA排序分析，结果表明制约塔里木河中下游天然植被组成和结构的主导环境因子为地下水位、地下水矿化度、地下水酸碱度。通过CCA二维排序图将16种植物对干旱、盐碱的适应性划分5类型。21个样地在CCA二维排序图上可聚集成9个植物群落类群，即胡杨(Populus euphratica)群落、铃铛刺(Halimodendron halodendron)群落、库尔勒沙拐枣(Calligonum Kuerlese)群落、多枝柽柳(Tamarix ramosissima)群落、黑果枸杞(Lycium ruthenicum)群落、盐穗木(Halostashys caspica)群落、花花柴(Karelinia caspica)群落、疏叶骆驼剂(Alhagi sparsifolia)群落、罗布麻(Apocynum venetum)群落，与TWINSPAN结果中的群系分类单位一致。CCA连续排序与TWINSPAN分类结果吻合较好。9种植物群落类型中，能耐受最大盐胁迫的为盐穗木群落，能耐受最大干旱胁迫的为铃铛刺群落，能耐受最大地下水碱胁迫的为黑果枸杞群落。  相似文献