集合敏感性分析在北半球中纬度高影响天气中的应用     

郑明华  杜钧  Brian A.Colle 《气象科学进展》2020,10(2):42-57

总结回顾了集合敏感性分析(ESA)在诊断中纬度高影响天气预报不确定性中的应用。作为一个简单高效且不需要大量计算资源的方法,集合敏感性分析主要被应用在中纬度气旋、台风或飓风的温带转换,以及在强对流过程中诊断预报误差和不确定性的来源。集合敏感性方法极有灵活性,可以根据实际需要改变不同的预报变量和初始场。在对2010年美国东岸圣诞节暴风雪的分析中,集合敏感性分析通过三种形式来诊断了预报不确定性的初值敏感性,即基于EOF分析的敏感性、预报差别的敏感性,以及基于短期预报误差的向前积分敏感性回归。三种方法证实气旋路径的不确定性主要和位于美国南部大平原的短波槽初始误差相关。此外,气旋强度的不确定性还和产生于北太平洋向下游延伸的罗斯贝波列相关。集合敏感性分析方法对于分析中纬度气旋的不确定性、诊断初值敏感性、分析误差发展机制都非常有效。集合敏感性分析也被应用于分析台风/飓风的温带气旋转换过程的不确定性。在对2019年美国首个主要登陆台风Dorian的分析中发现,加拿大CMC的集合预报主要不确定性来自于强度的不确定性,而这个不确定性与初始时刻的大尺度环流型有关,较连贯的信号可以追溯至东北太平洋的前倾槽。而NCEP和ECMWF的不确定性主要在于气旋位置的东北—西南向移动,而敏感性主要和飓风系统本身(即其北部低压区和中纬度槽)的锁相有关。分析结果进一步验证了集合敏感性分析对诊断模式之间的不一致性,以及模式成员之间不一致性的不确定性来源和发展过程的可靠性。集合敏感性分析方法综合了集合预报、资料同化和敏感性分析,因此对于资料同化技术改进、诊断模式误差(或者缺陷)、附加(目标)观测最优策略,以及评估观测对预报的影响等都有重要意义。同时可以更有效地利用集合预报信息,帮助预报员提高情景意识,最终减少高影响天气预报中的决策失误。  相似文献   

Transition process from nucleation to high-speed rupture propagation: scaling from stick-slip experiments tonatural earthquakes     

Bunichiro Shibazaki  & Mitsuhiro Matsu'ura 《Geophysical Journal International》1998,132(1):14-30

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Fidelity and time resolution of the magnetostratigraphic record in Siwalik sediments: high-resolution study of a complete polarity transition and evidence for cryptochrons in a Miocene fluviatile section     

Wolfgang Rösler  & Erwin Appel 《Geophysical Journal International》1998,135(3):861-875

The Surai Khola section in southwest Nepal, a 5000 m continuously exposed record of fluvial sedimentation since Middle Miocene, was revisited for high-resolution magnetostratigraphy in sequences with expected cryptochrons and reversals of the geomagnetic field. Polarity intervals with durations of a few tens of thousands of years are recorded as zones of stable palaeomagnetic directions. Polarity transitions are recorded as zones with complex demagnetization behaviour of specimens in the sedimentary column. Almost antiparallel palaeoremanence directions, residing in different haematite phases in the same specimens, could generally not be separated properly by thermal demagnetization. Differing demagnetization paths for neighbouring specimens during a reversal suggest that measured transitional directions are not true geomagnetic field directions, but rather are generated by the superposition of variable amounts of at least two almost antiparallel components of magnetization. Accompanying studies of recent river sand deposits demonstrate that these sediments acquire a true depositional remanent magnetization (DRM) with considerable inclination errors and scattered directions for individual specimens.  相似文献   

Thickness estimates of the upper-mantle transition zone from bootstrapped velocity spectrum stacks of receiver functions   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

HaroldGurrola  J.Bernard Minster 《Geophysical Journal International》1998,133(1):31-43

We modify the receiver-functions stacking technique known as velocity spectrum stacking (VSS) so as to estimate combinations of velocity model ( V_P and V_S ) and depth that stack the Ps conversion from upper-mantle discontinuities most coherently. We find that by estimating the differences in the depths to the 660 and 410 km discontinuities using velocities that maximize the stacked amplitudes of P410s and P660s phases we can estimate the thickness of the transition zone more accurately than the depths to either of these discontinuities. We present two examples indicating that the transition zone beneath Obninsk, Russia, is 252±6 km thick and that beneath Pasadena, California, is only 220±6 km thick.  相似文献   

Study on fine structure of crust-mantle transition zone in Yanqing-Hailai basin based on CDP and DSS data     

成瑾  李清河 《地震学报(英文版)》1998,11(1):81-88

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东天山大型韧性剪切带基本特征与金矿预测   总被引：28，自引：3，他引：25  

杨兴科  姬金生 《大地构造与成矿学》1998,22(3):209-218

东天山大型韧性剪切带即秋格明塔什-黄山韧性剪切带,规模宏大,东西长逾600km,宽5～20km。变形标志明显,分四期变形。应变测量、岩组分析、剪切位移量计算、同位素测年等定量分析表明：①以平面单剪应变为主,稍晚向伸长应变转化;②存在逆冲剪切和脆-韧性变形转换;③剪切位移量在75km以上;④变形时代在300～250Ma之间,高峰期在285～265Ma,属海西中晚期。它是康-黄断裂带的重要组成体,控制着康古尔塔格金矿带的空间展布。据现有大中型金矿研究建立了区域脆-韧性变形转换带结构模式和金矿预测模式,可有效指导找矿勘探。  相似文献   

Mantle heat flow and geotherms for major tectonic units in central Europe     

Jacek Majorowicz 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1978,117(1-2):109-123

The results of seismic measurements along the deep seismic sounding profile VII and terrestrial heat flow measurements used for construction of heat generation models for the crust in the Paleozoic Platform region, the Sudetic Mountains (Variscan Internides) and the European Precambrian Platform show considerable differences in mantle heat flow and temperatures. At the base of the crust variations from 440–510°C in the models of Precambrian Platform to 700–820°C for the Paleozoic Platform and the Variscan Internides (Sudets) are found. These differences are associated with considerable mantle heat flow variations.The calculated models show mantle heat flow of about 8.4–12.6 mW m^–2 for the Precambrian Platform and 31 mW m^–2 to 40.2 mW m^–2 for Paleozoic orogenic areas. The heat flow contribution originating from crustal radioactivity is almost the same for the different tectonic units (from 33.5 mW m^–2 to 37.6 mW m^–2). Considerable physical differences in the lower crust and upper mantle between the Precambrian Platform and the adjacent areas, produced by lateral temperature variations, could be expected. On the basis of carbon ratio data it can be concluded that the Carboniferous paleogeothermal gradient was much lower in the Precambrian Platform area than in the Paleozoic Platform region.  相似文献   

对模式匹配算法的存储优化研究     

林南晖  张国军 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2008,(Z1)

基于确定性有限自动机(DFA)的多模式匹配算法被广泛用于数据包深度检测系统中。它功能虽然强大,但是对内存的需求也比较大,因此很多算法提出了对它的优化方法,以减少对内存的需求量。本文通过用动态默认转移来替代DFA的failto转移,将DFA中大部分的failto转移删掉,从而达到优化DFA的目的。而且本算法易于用硬件实现,因此在对速度有要求的场合,可以通过专门的硬件来计算默认转移,这样默认转移的计算并不会对检测产生延迟,从而加快匹配速度。  相似文献   

Direct Propagation of Photospheric Acoustic <Emphasis Type="Italic">p</Emphasis> Modes into Nonmagnetic Solar Atmosphere     

C. Malins  R. Erdélyi 《Solar physics》2007,246(1):41-52

Solar p modes are one of the dominant types of coherent signals in Doppler velocity in the solar photosphere, with periods showing a power peak at five minutes. The propagation (or leakage) of these p-mode signals into the higher solar atmosphere is one of the key drivers of oscillatory motions in the higher solar chromosphere and corona. This paper examines numerically the direct propagation of acoustic waves driven harmonically at the photosphere, into the nonmagnetic solar atmosphere. Erdélyi et al. (Astron. Astrophys. 467, 1299, 2007) investigated the acoustic response to a single point-source driver. In the follow-up work here we generalise this previous study to more structured, coherent, photospheric drivers mimicking solar global oscillations. When our atmosphere is driven with a pair of point drivers separated in space, reflection at the transition region causes cavity oscillations in the lower chromosphere, and amplification and cavity resonance of waves at the transition region generate strong surface oscillations. When driven with a widely horizontally coherent velocity signal, cavity modes are caused in the chromosphere, surface waves occur at the transition region, and fine structures are generated extending from a dynamic transition region into the lower corona, even in the absence of a magnetic field.  相似文献   

大沽河地下咸淡水过渡带的水-岩作用模拟     

陈然  郑西来 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2015,45(1):95-101

大沽河是青岛市最大的地下水源地,过量开采导致严重的地下咸水入侵,研究地下咸-淡水的地球化学作用对于地下咸水的治理具有重要的指导作用。本文选取大沽河地下咸淡水过渡带作为研究区,在地下水动态监测的基础上,通过地下水水质和含水介质矿物分析,借助当前成熟的水文地球化学模拟软件—PHREEQC 2.0,计算地下水中主要离子和络合离子的含量,定量确定矿物的饱和指数和地下水流向上矿物相与水之间的物质交换量。研究结果表明:(1)地下水中钠、钾、镁、钙主要以单一离子形态存在,硫、碳主要以络阴离子形态存在,而硅和铝主要以络合物形态存在;(2)在地下水流动路径上,方解石、白云石、伊利石、高岭土处于过饱和状态;而石膏、CO2、氯化钠、萤石、玉髓处于不饱和状态;(3)咸淡水过渡带地下水化学类型由HCO3-Ca·Na型水向Cl-Na型水转变的趋势。  相似文献