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991.
为保证海上风电升压电站建设的经济合理与安全可靠,合理确定海上风电升压电站平台高程十分必要。文中从波浪与潮位的遭遇组合、最大波高取值与现行相关标准的比较、最大波峰高度计算的合理性等方面,全面分析了确定海上风电升压站平台高程各组成项取值标准的合理性,研究认为现行标准明显偏高。建议海上升压站平台底部高程按"100年一遇极端高水位+重现期50年波列累积频率1%的最大波峰高度+安全超高"确定。结合工程实例计算分析,按本文建议可使海上升压站平台高程明显降低,从而节省工程造价,还可减轻升压站工程对周边风机的遮蔽影响,以达到多发电量的效果。 相似文献
992.
Sea-level return periods are estimated at 18 sites around the English Channel using: (i) the annual maxima method; (ii) the r-largest method; (iii) the joint probability method; and (iv) the revised joint probability method. Tests are undertaken to determine how sensitive these four methods are to three factors which may significantly influence the results; (a) the treatment of the long-term trends in extreme sea level; (b) the relative magnitudes of the tidal and non-tidal components of sea level; and (c) the frequency, length and completeness of the available data. Results show that unless sea-level records with lengths of at least 50 years are used, the way in which the long-term trends is handled in the different methods can lead to significant differences in the estimated return levels. The direct methods (i.e. methods i and ii) underestimate the long (> 20 years) period return levels when the astronomical tidal variations of sea level (relative to a mean of zero) are about twice that of the non-tidal variations. The performance of each of the four methods is assessed using prediction errors (the difference between the return periods of the observed maximum level at each site and the corresponding data range). Finally, return periods, estimated using the four methods, are compared with estimates from the spatial revised joint probability method along the UK south coast and are found to be significantly larger at most sites along this coast, due to the comparatively short records originally used to calibrate the model in this area. The revised joint probability method is found to have the lowest prediction errors at most sites analysed and this method is recommended for application wherever possible. However, no method can compensate for poor data. 相似文献
993.
Fernando J. Mndez Melisa Menndez Alberto Luceo Raúl Medina Nicholas E. Graham 《Ocean Engineering》2008,35(1):131-138
This paper presents a statistical model to characterize the long-term extreme value distribution of significant wave height, conditioning to the duration of the storm and accounting for seasonality. A time-dependent version of the peak over threshold (POT) approach is used to build the model, which is then applied to specific reanalysis time series and NOAA buoy records. The model considers the annual and semiannual cycles which are parameterized in terms of harmonic functions. The inclusion of seasonal variabilities substantially reduces the residuals of the fitted model. The information obtained in this study can be useful to design maritime works, because (a) the model improves the understanding of the variability of extreme wave climate along a year and (b) the model accounts for the duration of the storm, which is a key parameter in several formulations for rubble mound breakwater design. 相似文献
994.
P.P. Povinec J. de Oliveira E.S. Braga J.-F. Comanducci J. Gastaud M. Groening I. Levy-Palomo U. Morgenstern Z. Top 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2008
Stable isotopes, tritium, radium isotopes, radon, trace elements and nutrients data were collected during two sampling campaigns in the Ubatuba coastal area (south-eastern Brazil) with the aim of investigating submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) in the region. The isotopic composition (δD, δ18O, 3H) of submarine waters was characterised by significant variability and heavy isotope enrichment. The stable isotopes and tritium data showed good separation of groundwater and seawater groups. The contribution of groundwater in submarine waters varied from a few % to 17%. Spatial distribution of 222Rn activity concentration in surface seawater revealed changes between 50 and 200 Bq m−3 which were in opposite relationship with observed salinities. Time series measurements of 222Rn activity concentration in Flamengo Bay (from 1 to 5 kBq m−3), obtained by in situ underwater gamma-spectrometry showed a negative correlation between the 222Rn activity concentration and tide/salinity. This may be caused by sea level changes as tide effects induce variations of hydraulic gradients, which increase 222Rn concentration during lower sea level, and opposite, during high tides where the 222Rn activity concentration is smaller. The estimated SGD fluxes varied during 22–26 November between 8 and 40 cm d−1, with an average value of 21 cm d−1 (the unit is cm3/cm2 per day). The radium isotopes and nutrient data showed scattered distributions with offshore distance and salinity, which implies that in a complex coast with many small bays and islands, the area has been influenced by local currents and groundwater–seawater mixing. SGD in the Ubatuba area is fed by coastal contaminated groundwater and re-circulated seawater (with small admixtures of groundwater), which claims for potential environmental concern with implications on the management of freshwater resources in the region. 相似文献
995.
996.
台风作用下的港湾型潮滩沉积过程 以2008年“凤凰”台风对福建省罗源湾的影响为例 总被引:3,自引:3,他引:0
通过对"凤凰"台风的现场观测和沉积物样品的分析,结果表明,在台风影响下潮水淹没时间增长,增水达1.1 m;台风期间互花米草盐沼内流速变化较复杂,而且盐沼内部流速大于盐沼边缘的;台风期间盐沼边缘潮周期平均悬沙含量是台风前2 d的7倍;台风期间十分之一波高最大为1.54 m。滩面重复测量结果显示,台风登陆期间整个光滩滩面都发生了侵蚀,盐沼内部有部分地区发生侵蚀,侵蚀深度为4.5~5.5 cm,盐沼边缘的侵蚀深度仅为0.7 cm,侵蚀原因主要是植被在风浪作用下从根部折断,从而带走了滩面的沉积物;随着台风强度的减弱,整个滩面均接受悬沙沉降;台风带来的强降雨是影响滩面沉积物活动的重要因素。 相似文献
997.
基于事件驱动的空间过程模拟机制研究及实践 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
GIS描述的现实世界永远处于不断变化之中,但传统GIS却只能以静态的方式表现[1],随着GIS的广泛应用,越来越多的应用领域,需要GIS来管理空间信息的动态变化。为更有效地定义和描述空间变化,并实现其动态模拟,本研究采用面向对象的思想对空间过程中的核心要素建模,对传统的空间数据模型进行扩展,引入动态图形对象模型、时空事件模型、事件处理引擎等概念,基于SuperMap GIS组件平台进行模型验证;通过合理的资源调配、高效时空索引和动态缓存机制来提高空间变化过程动态可视化的效率。本研究针对通用的空间过程进行底层建模,实现事件驱动的空间过程模拟机制。这不仅简化了上层应用开发的工作量,而且优化了基础模型层的结构,同时引入了事件驱动引擎、事件索引、动态地图缓存等机制,较好地提升空间过程模拟的效果。 相似文献
998.
黄土高原早期环境 ,应该同其周边环境大体相似 ,也存在冰期问题 :三套“砂质黄土”是冰期遗物的唯一表象 ,这是因为冰体夹在黄土层中间 ,基本丧失了冰川形成条件 ,故虽有冰期而无冰川 ,自然也就没有山岳冰川所形成的各类遗物 ,当然也包括冰川地貌的形踪 相似文献
999.
近年来,在广西靖西、百色、博白、贵港等地先后发现了玻璃陨石,使得该物体的陨落地点从海南和广东雷州半岛地区向北推至广西北回归线附近。经采用裂变径迹法对靖西玻璃陨石作年龄测定,它陨落至今的年龄为0.737Ma。其年龄值与我国琼雷地区以及印支地区、菲律宾、澳大利亚等地的玻璃陨石大致相同,同属亚澳散布区撞击事件的产物。由于亚澳散布区的玻璃陨石被公认为第四纪中更新世初期的事件地层学标志物,可据此划分中更新统和下更新统的地层界线 相似文献
1000.
高空西北气流下特大暴雨的预报误差分析及思考 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
利用常规及非常规气象资料、业务数值预报模式、GFS再分析资料(0.5°×0.5°),分析了2016年6月19日江西北部高空西北气流下特大暴雨环境场特征和数值模式误差,对比了相似形势的暴雨过程,找出业务预报误差较大的可能原因是对高空"干冷"西北气流南移、副热带高压北抬的速度、低空西南急流加强及前端辐合、上游移来短波槽、异常水汽条件的综合作用分析不到位,各类数值模式产品对降水落区预报偏北、强度预报偏弱也影响了预报员对暴雨的综合判断;给出了预报这类特大暴雨着眼点和预报概念模型以及订正模式降水的思路。 相似文献