A cost–benefit appraisal of coastal managed realignment policy     

R.K. Turner  D. Burgess  D. Hadley  E. Coombes  N. Jackson   《Global Environmental Change》2007,17(3-4):397-407

European coasts are coming under increasing threat as a result of climate change from erosion and flooding. While coastal defences such as sea walls have been constructed since Roman times to protect human settlements from the sea, it is now increasingly recognised that these defences are unsustainable. The security provided by ‘hard’ engineered defences has encouraged development on the coast, and the defences themselves have led to the loss of intertidal habitat and the natural protection it provides.An alternative to maintaining ‘hard’ defences (hold-the-line) to protect land from increasing sea levels is managed realignment, where the engineered defences are deliberately breached. By allowing the coastline to recede to a new line of defence further inland, intertidal habitat is created providing natural protection from flooding and erosion.The study evaluates the economic efficiency—using cost–benefit analysis—of various managed realignment scenarios compared to a strategy of holding-the-line within the Humber estuary in North-east England. The results of this analysis show that managed realignment can be more economically efficient than holding-the-line over a sufficiently long time period—generally greater than 25 years. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that results are more sensitive to the amount and value of intertidal habitat generated than they are to the amount and value of carbon stored by this habitat. Cost–benefit analysis is viewed as one component of a wider policy appraisal process within integrated coastal management.  相似文献   

400年来北极巴罗角的温度变化特征   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

王国  张青松 《极地研究》1998,10(1):14-19

近４００年湖泊岩芯温度记录揭示,巴罗地区总的变化趋势是升温,平均升温速率为每百年０．４℃,但近２００年呈降温趋势。熵谱分析表明,近代巴罗地区温度波动存在３３年、４０年、２９年周期和９０年左右的世纪周期;１９２１～１９９４年巴罗气象台逐月温度资料统计分析和熵谱分析表明,现代巴罗温度变化有４个月、半年、１４个月、１６个月、３年、４年、７年和１０年周期。  相似文献   

贵州省兴仁县近50年气候特征及其变迁分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

艾应全  蒋斌  崔世强  靳龙柱 《云南地理环境研究》2004,(Z1)

局地气候资料的整理分析,是对更大范围内某一地区的气候研究提供参考的依据之一。贵州省兴仁是国家基准气候站,观测资料较长,对贵州西南片区有较好的代表性。通过对兴仁50年完整的气象资料整理分析,得出该地温度、降水、风、相对湿度、云量、雾日、光照等气象要素的基本特征,并以此特征作出该地的气候类型评定;同时根据该地近50年冷暖趋势、干湿趋势的变化,分析总结出其近代的气候变迁。  相似文献   

淮河流域洪涝变化吸引子维数研究   总被引：15，自引：1，他引：14  

周寅康  包浩生 《地理科学》1998,18(4):362-367

淮河流域洪涝序列的功率谱表现出了较好的混沌谱特征,这是序列呈分形结构的内在原因。洪涝序列及其不同平滑序列的关联维数表明,序列平滑程度越大,关联维数越小,关联维数反映了序列所在系统的层次,是系统结构复杂性的重要量度,是 系统建模所需独立变量的控制参数。要恰当地描述淮河流域洪涝发生系数,需构造至少５个状态变量的动力学系统。  相似文献   

Using the TCEV distribution function with systematic and non-systematic data in a regional flood frequency analysis     

F. Francés 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1998,12(4):267-283

Due to the social and economic implications, flood frequency analysis must be done with the highest precision. For this reason, the most suitable statistical model must be selected, and the maximum amount of information must be used. Floods in Mediterranean rivers can be produced by two different mechanisms, which forces the use of a non-traditional distribution like the TCEV. The information can be increased by using additional non-systematic data, or with a regional analysis, or both. Through the statistical gain concept, it has been shown that in most cases the use of additional non-systematic information can decrease the quantile estimation error in about 50%. In a regional analysis, the␣benefit of additional information in one station, is propagated to the rest of␣the␣stations with only a small decrease with respect to the at-site equivalent analysis.  相似文献   

PREDICTING RESERVOIR SEDIMENTATION WITH 2D MODEL FLOODSIM     

W.BECHTELER  M.NUJIC 《国际泥沙研究》1998,(1)

ＰＲＥＤＩＣＴＩＮＧＲＥＳＥＲＶＯＩＲＳＥＤＩＭＥＮＴＡＴＩＯＮＷＩＴＨ２ＤＭＯＤＥＬＦＬＯＯＤＳＩＭＷ．ＢＥＣＨＴＥＬＥＲ１ａｎｄＭ．ＮＵＪＩＣ２ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＰｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎｏｆｓｅｄｉｍｅｎｔａｔｉｏｎｉｓｖｅｒｙｉｍｐｏｒｔａｎｔｂｅｆ...  相似文献   

RIVER MORPHOLOGY AND CHANNEL STABILIZATION OF THE BRAHMAPUTRA RIVER IN BANGLADESH     

ZHOU Wenhao  CHEN Jianguo 《国际泥沙研究》1998,(4)

１ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＴｈｅＢｒａｈｍａｐｕｔｒａＲｉｖｅｒｏｒｉｇｉｎａｔｅｓｆｒｏｍｔｈｅＪｉｍａｙａｎｚｈｏｎｇｇｌａｃｉｅｒａｔｔｈｅｎｏｒｔｈｆｏｏｔｏｆｔｈｅＨｉｍａｌａｙａＭｏｕｎｔａｉｎｓｉｎＳｏｕｔｈＴｉｂｅｔ,Ｃｈｉｎａ．Ｉ...  相似文献   

Average Annual Temperature Changes in the Holocene in China     

BI Fuzhi  YUAN Youshen Peking University  Cheng Ze Yuan  Beijing 《《地质学报》英文版》1998,72(3):321-328

In 1876 Blytt proposed a post-glacial climatic classification, maintaining that the then temperature fluctuated 1- 2℃ higher or lower than that today. Lamb (1969) held that in Europe " the axis of the subtropical high pressure belt was generally displaced north by about 10° latitudes" during the Hypsithermal and that the temperature was three to six times higher than that in the postglacial period.In China, there appear relict beachrocks (living fossils) in tropical tidal zones from the Bohai Bay (40° N) to coastal areas in South China. Many relict tropical marine fossils were discovered, such as Ostrea gigas in Tianjin (which is larger than that found today in Hainan), Placuna placenta in Zhejiang and Spondylus sp. in Fujian. In Hebei, Henan and Zhejiang provinces and Guilin of Guangxi, such tropical fossil animals as Elephas maximus and Rhinoceros sp, were discovered, and in Hebei and Jiangsu provinces such fresh water fossils as Unio douglasiae were found. Their living species are still seen in So  相似文献   

大型天然水体的环境效应研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

柴贺军 《地质灾害与环境保护》1998,9(2):7-12

结合典型实例,论述大型天然水体－－堰塞湖从形成到消亡过程中产生的灾害链和环境效应链,包括堰塞湖的淹没、边岸再造、堰塞沉积物、次生洪水、永久性不良地质环境的灾害和环境效应对人民生命财产的威胁,以及对水利水电、航运、公路和铁路工程的不良影响。  相似文献   

Using regional regression within index flood procedures and an empirical Bayesian estimator     

Heinz D. Fill  Jery R. Stedinger 《Journal of Hydrology》1998,210(1-4):128-145

Studies have illustrated the performance of at-site and regional flood quantile estimators. For realistic generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions and short records, a simple index-flood quantile estimator performs better than two-parameter (2P) GEV quantile estimators with probability weighted moment (PWM) estimation using a regional shape parameter and at-site mean and L-coefficient of variation (L-CV), and full three-parameter at-site GEV/PWM quantile estimators. However, as regional heterogeneity or record lengths increase, the 2P-estimator quickly dominates. This paper generalizes the index flood procedure by employing regression with physiographic information to refine a normalized T-year flood estimator. A linear empirical Bayes estimator uses the normalized quantile regression estimator to define a prior distribution which is employed with the normalized 2P-quantile estimator. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that this empirical Bayes estimator does essentially as well as or better than the simpler normalized quantile regression estimator at sites with short records, and performs as well as or better than the 2P-estimator at sites with longer records or smaller L-CV.  相似文献