Forecasting the Time Series of Sunspot Numbers     

L. A. Aguirre  C. Letellier  J. Maquet 《Solar physics》2008,249(1):103-120

Forecasting the solar cycle is of great importance for weather prediction and environmental monitoring, and also constitutes a difficult scientific benchmark in nonlinear dynamical modeling. This paper describes the identification of a model and its use in the forecasting the time series comprised of Wolf’s sunspot numbers. A key feature of this procedure is that the original time series is first transformed into a symmetrical space where the dynamics of the solar dynamo are unfolded in a better way, thus improving the model. The nonlinear model obtained is parsimonious and has both deterministic and stochastic parts. Monte Carlo simulation of the whole model produces very consistent results with the deterministic part of the model but allows for the determination of confidence bands. The obtained model was used to predict cycles 24 and 25, although the forecast of the latter is seen as a crude approximation, given the long prediction horizon required. As for the 24th cycle, two estimates were obtained with peaks of 65±16 and of 87±13 units of sunspot numbers. The simulated results suggest that the 24th cycle will be shorter and less active than the preceding one.  相似文献   

多功能超声波成像测井仪应用效果评价     

孙志峰  陈洪海  陶爱华 《海洋地质译丛》2013,(4):57-61,82

多功能超声成像测井仪采用超声脉冲反射法进行套损及水泥胶结质量评价.对该仪器实测的波形进行分析,波形信噪比良好,首波为套管内壁的反射波,随后到达的为套管共振波,波形频谱曲线具有明显的谱陷特征.利用井眼内壁反射波的幅度及到时曲线可实现井眼内壁高分辨率成像;利用套管共振波的共振频率及幅度衰减可分别计算套管厚度及套管后面材料的水泥声阻抗.现场实测的裸眼井资料表明,该仪器可获取井壁表面裂缝、层理、孔洞等地质构造信息.处理现场实测的套管井资料表明,仪器可正确测量套管的壁厚,识别套损方位,同时还可以根据水泥声阻抗的数值范围确定一界面材料是气体、液体还是固体成分.该仪器具有井眼内壁成像、套损评价及水泥胶结质量评价的功能.  相似文献   

A Singular Perturbation Method for Parametric Investigation on J-lay Installation of Deepwater Pipelines     

王琴  段梦兰  李海明  张庆元 《海洋工程》2013,27(6):751-766

The maximum bending moment or curvature in the neighborhood of the touch down point (TDP) and the maximum tension at the top are two key parameters to be controlled during deepwater J-lay installation in order to ensure the safety of the pipe-laying operation and the normal operation of the pipelines. In this paper, the non-linear governing differential equation for getting the two parameters during J-lay installation is proposed and solved by use of singular perturbation technique, from which the asymptotic expression of stiffened catenary is obtained and the theoretical expression of its static geometric configuration as well as axial tension and bending moment is derived. Finite element results are applied to verify this method. Parametric investigation is conducted to analyze the influences of the seabed slope, unit weight, flexural stiffness, water depth, and the pipe-laying tower angle on the maximum tension and moment of pipeline by this method, and the results show how to control the installation process by changing individual parameters.  相似文献   

对转压气机三维掠动叶优化设计          下载免费PDF全文

曹志远  刘波  张国臣  杨小东  陈得胜  李俊 《海洋科学进展》2013,(4):486-492

为探索三维掠动叶降低对转压气机二次流损失的潜力,进一步提高对转压气机气动性能,基于近似函数与遗传算法,针对某对转压气机双排转子在整机环境下进行三维掠动叶优化设计,并对优化前后流场进行对比分析。优化成功的得到了双排“S”形掠动叶,结果表明:三维掠动叶有效改善了双排动叶吸力面径向二次流,减小了吸力面低速区,提高了对转压气机性能,优化工况点整机效率提高0.6%,全工况范围内效率均有所提高;三维掠动叶提高对转压气机效率的根本原因是其对径向负荷分配的重新调整,将叶展下方流动较差区域负荷移至叶展上方,改善流场的同时保证对转压气机负荷不变。   相似文献   

半滑舌鳎苗种体外挂牌标志技术研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

柳学周  徐永江  陈学周  刘之亮  王妍妍  李春广 《海洋科学进展》2013,31(2)

研制了4种不同规格的T型标志牌(T-A,T-B,TC,T-D),对不同规格的半滑舌鳎苗种进行了标记试验,记录了标记后的脱牌率、成活率、行为特征和生长情况,筛选了适宜于半滑舌鳎苗种标志放流的T型标志牌.结果表明:T-A标志牌适宜于标记全长8 cm以上的苗种,标记后的实验鱼生长与对照组无显著差异,标志后暂养成活率92％～100％;T-B标志牌适宜标记全长16 cm的苗种,标记后实验鱼成活率达到100％,脱牌率为0.T-C和T-D标志牌不适宜于标记全长16 cm以下的半滑舌鳎苗种.2011年,利用本研究开发的T-A标志牌标记半滑舌鳎苗种,并在莱州开展大规模标志放流试验,标记效果良好.  相似文献   

西藏帕里湖卫星遥感监测     

王治华  徐起德 《山地学报》2009,27(2)

为查明2004年和2005年夏季在中印边界附近发生的滑坡堰塞湖溃坝灾害,采用高分辨率为主的多时相卫星图像和“数字滑坡”技术对帕里河中段从形成堰寒湖到溃坝的整个过程进行了监测。监测结果表明位于喜马拉雅山脉西段的帕里湖为高原山地萎缩湖盆,滑坡筑坝形成堰塞湖至溃坝可分为4个阶段,估算溃坝前湖面的最大高程、最大面积和最大水繁分别达3907m、1．75km^2和6144×10^4 m^3,2005-06-26溃坝的下泄洪水量为3738×10^4 m^3。预测未来汛期帕里湖下游仍然存在崩塌滑坡活动及短暂堵江形成堰塞湖的可能性,但其规模将大多小于2004-2005年的灾害。在本次遥感监测的基础上,定期进行遥感监测,当帕里湖水面面积≥1．6km^2时,即通知下游作好撤离等避灾准备,是目前最经济有效的预警防灾措施。  相似文献   

Sap-flow measurement and scale transferring from sample trees to entire forest stand of Populus euphratica in desert riparian forest in extreme arid region     

JianHua Si  Qi Feng  HaiYang Xi  ZongQiang Chang  YongHong Su  Kai Zhang 《寒旱区科学》2009,1(3):0258-0266

Understanding how the transpiration of this vegetation type responds to environmental stress is important for determining the wa-ter-balance dynamics of the riparian ecosystem threatened by groundwater depletion. Transpiration and sap flow were measured using the heat-pulse technique. The results were then projected up to the stand level to investigate the stand’s water-use in relation to climate forcing in the desert riparian forest in an extreme arid region. This study took place from April through October 2003 and from May through October 2004. The experimental site was selected in the Populus euphratica Forest Reserve (101o10’ E, 41o59’ N) in Ejina county, in the lower Heihe River basin, China. The sapwood area was used as a scalar to extrapolate the stand-water consumption from the whole trees’ water consumption measured by the heat-pulse velocity recorder (HPVR). Scale transferring from a series of individual trees to a stand was done according to the existing natural variations between trees under given environmental conditions. The application of the biometric parameters available from individual tree and stand levels was proved suitable for this purpose. A significant correlation between the sapwood area and tree diameter at breast height (DBH) was found. The prediction model is well fitted by the power model. On the basis of the prediction model, the sapwood area can be cal-culated by DBH. The sap-flow density can then be used to extrapolate the stand-water use by means of a series of mathematical models.  相似文献   

锦45块储层流动单元   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

李军辉  卢双舫  柳成志  李笑梅  苏鹤成  杨雨 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2009,39(2):190

正确地划分储层流动单元,对预测剩余油分布、调整开发方案、提高采收率都具有重要意义。采用多参数的聚类分析和模糊综合评价相结合的方法进行储层流动单元的划分,在此基础上应用BP网络技术对流动单元进行预测。研究表明,本区储层可以划分为Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ 4类流动单元:其中Ⅰ类是该区储集性能最好的储层流动单元,虽然开发程度较高,大部分井已经关闭,但个别井目前仍具有一定的生产能力;Ⅱ类是该区储集性能较好的储层流动单元,水淹的程度较低,还存有一定的剩余油,是目前油田生产的主要区域;Ⅲ类是该区储集性能较差的流动单元,开发效果一般,动用程度较差,所以是油田进一步挖潜的区域;Ⅳ类是该区储集性能最差的流动单元,原始含油性很差,因此不是剩余油分布的主要区域。对各类流动单元特征进行了精细的分析,为油田综合治理提供了详细的地质依据。  相似文献   

数字化地震前兆台网日常工作管理软件   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7  

王建国  栗连弟  崔晓峰  吴强  聂永安 《地震研究》2009,32(1)

数字化地震前兆台网日常工作管理软件是天津市地震局区域前兆中心和台站日常工作核心软件之一.首先分析了软件的层次结构及数据流程,然后从台站应用模块、文件汇集、数据检索、数据入库、文件分级保存、日志管理、数据绘图、数据质量监控、数据库管理维护、数据报表、数据报送共11个方面介绍了软件的功能及特点,并对软件研制采用的关键技术、应用情况予以阐述说明.该软件的应用,提高了工作效率,规范了前兆台网的日常管理工作.  相似文献   

双电层理论与高庙子膨润土的体变特征   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

叶为民  黄伟  陈宝  郁陈  王驹 《岩土力学》2009,30(7):1899-1903

黏性土中土体颗粒（矿物颗粒）带有负电荷,周围存在电场。在静电引力与布朗运动（热运动）作用下,紧邻土体颗粒表面处静电引力最强,水化离子和极性分子牢牢地被吸附在颗粒表面附近形成固定层。由固定层向外,静电引力逐渐减小,水化离子和极性分子的活动性逐渐增大,形成扩散层。固定层和扩散层中的阳离子（反离子层）与土粒表面负电荷共同构成双电层。根据双电层理论,当给定两个黏土片层之间的距离时,渗透压力可以由两个片层中轴线处的离子浓度来求取。同样,对于给定的渗透压力和中轴线处的离子浓度,便可以确定两个片层之间的距离。采用渗析法吸力控制技术与压汞仪法（MIP）微观结构试验手段,研究了低吸力范围内、自由膨胀条件下高压实高庙子膨润土的土水特性与体变特征,同时采用双电层理论估算了高庙子膨润土水化过程中的自由膨胀量,并将估算值与试验实测值进行了对比分析。在使用孔率计法试验结果求取试样孔隙比时考虑了压汞仪出力能力影响,采用线性延伸方法估算了残余孔隙量。研究结果显示,低吸力范围内,由双电层理论,估算的高压实高庙子膨润土的自由体积膨胀量与试验数据吻合较好,但随着吸力的进一步减小,两者之间的误差有增大的趋势,文中对出现这一偏差的原因进行了分析探讨。  相似文献