与前期秋冬季热带对流活动异常相关联的东亚冬春季大气环流及山东4月降水     

胡桂芳  张璇  顾伟宗 《热带气象学报》2008,24(3):273-278

利用1979～2006年月平均OLR、850 hPa、200 hPa风场等资料,分析了山东4月降水异常年的前期秋、冬季热带地区对流活动特征,发现前冬12月的热带西太平洋地区对流活动异常与山东4月降水的关系最为密切,进一步分析其与东亚大气环流关系,结果表明西太平洋暖池上空的对流活动异常与冬春季东亚大槽、东亚局地的Hadley环流以及Walker环流的强弱紧密相连,且对流活动强(弱)年相伴随的东亚大气环流异常特征恰与山东4月降水异常少(多)年的特征相吻合,因此,12月热带西太平洋对流活动强弱可作为山东4月降水预测的一条重要依据.  相似文献   

北半球500 hPa高度场定常波不平稳性分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

周国华  王盘兴  施宁  李巧萍  佘高杰 《气象学报》2009,67(2):298-306

提出并阐明Lorenz环流分解意义下的定常波不平稳性概念,它是月平均网上纬向波动分量气候变率与定常波强度相对大小的表征.根据Lorenz环流分解,定义全域(局域)定常波不平稳度Ius(I1us),分析了北半球500 hPa位势高度场定常波强度较大的30°-60°N纬带的定常波不平稳性,结果表明:(1)全城定常波不平稳带位置存在季节件北进、南退过程.平稳的定常波出现在冬季的35°-55°N的中纬度带和夏季的副热带地区(35°N以南),分别与冬季的东亚大槽、北美槽和较弱的欧洲槽,以及夏季的副热带高压等系统相联系.不平稳度的高值中心出现在春季的35°N和夏季的50°N,这与定常波强度季节变化和月平均图上槽脊位置、强度年际异常有关.(2)局域定常波不平稳度存在着明显的纬向不对称性.平稳带通常位于定常波的强槽强脊所控制的区域,而不平稳带通常位于定常波强度较弱的区域.副热带(35°N及以南)局域定常波不平稳度冬强于夏,中纬度(35°N及以北)则夏强于冬.夏季局域定常波不平稳度地理分布具有复杂的结构.但无论冬夏,北欧是定常波最不平稳的地区,北美大陆附近的定常波则相对平稳.(3)夏季,从华北经东北至北太平洋存在一个定常波不平稳度高值带,其高值中心位于中国黑龙江省东部(45°N,130°E),主要影响中国北方(东北、华北、西北),可能是该区夏季气候脆弱带的环流成因.  相似文献   

湿热力平流参数在贵州初夏强降水中的运用     

吴古会  彭芳 《贵州气象》2010,34(5):3-6

使用NCEP(1°×1°)再分析资料计算湿热力平流参数及其积分,通过对比分析2008—2009年初夏(5—6月)地面实况降水与该因子积分后的中心大值区的对应关系。理论分析表明:湿热力平流参数综合体现了锋区附近大气的动力、热力及水汽作用,相对于常用的相当位温、湿度等常用物理量来说,在一定程度上包含了广义位温及位温平流的相互作用,对实际非均匀饱和大气的动热力变化及水汽有较好的反映。统计分析也表明:积分后的湿热力平流参数中心值区与地面6小时强降水落区有较好的对应关系,它的变化趋势及移动方向与强降水区的变化也较一致,能作为短时强降水落区预报提供参考;利用NCEP/NCAR(1°×1°)再分析资料和Micaps地面实况降水资料,选取2009年6月7-9日发生在贵州的强降水过程为例,通过把湿热力平流参数与此次过程中动、热力场结合进行诊断分析,进一步表明该参数能综合地反应锋面强降水系统中的水汽、动力及热力的垂直结构特征,能作为造成强降水的锋面系统的示踪物。  相似文献   

从浅蓝走向深蓝——国有大型建筑设计企业海外市场开拓之简析     

龙革  陆红花 《中国勘察设计》2010,(6):29-33

本文从论述我国大型国有建筑设计企业"走出去"的必要性出发,分析了其开拓海外市场的可行性及存在的不足,重点探讨了开拓海外市场的策略,包括提出目标市场的选择标准、信息渠道的建设以及积极主动开拓市场的一些建议,并对海外市场开拓进行了概要性的风险分析。  相似文献   

Blazar天体的辐射特性研究     

郑永刚  杨卫国  张皓晶  张雄 《天文学报》2007,48(4):418-427

收集了47个Blazar天体的短时标光变资料,估算了中心天体质量和不同波段辐射区域,并对估算结果作了统计分析,发现Blazar天体中心黑洞质量在10~7M_☉到10~(10)M_☉之间,BL Lac天体与平谱射电类星体中心黑洞质量有很大差异,平谱射电类星体中心黑洞质量大于BL Lac天体中心黑洞质量;红外波段和γ射线波段辐射区域大小相似.同时,利用收集到Blazar天体的热光度分析了Blazar天体热光度与短时标光变之间的关系,证实了射电选BL Lac(RBL)天体和平谱射电类星体(FSRQs)的辐射是强成束的,但相对论聚柬效应对X射线选BL Lac(XBL)天体的辐射影响较小.  相似文献   

近期新疆地震形势分析研究     

高国英  聂晓红 《内陆地震》2001,15(1):23-29

根据近几年新疆强震活动的格局变化以及地震活动的时空分布，结合新疆几次7级地震前的异常特征进行综合分析，认为未来几年新疆地震活动将处于一组强烈地震之后的相对平静，但仍然有发生6级地震的可能。  相似文献   

Group velocity of anisotropic waves—Part I: Mathematical expression     

Yong L. McHall 《大气科学进展》1993,10(4):393-406

The group velocity used in meteorology in the last 30 years was derived in terms of conservation of wave energy or crests in wave propagation. The conservation principle is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for deriving the mathematical form of group velocity, because it cannot specify a unique direction in which wave energy or crests propagate. The derived mathematical expression is available only for isotropic waves. But for anisotropic waves, the traditional group velocity may have no a definite direction, because it varies with rotation of coordinates. For these reasons, it cannot be considered as a general expression of group velocity. A ray defined by using this group velocity may not be the trajectory of a reference point in an anisotropic wave train. The more general and precise expression of group velocity which is applicable for both isotropic and anisotropic waves and is independent of coordinates will be derived following the displacement of not only a wave envelope phase but also a wave reference point on the phase.  相似文献   

安阳区域性夏季大旱成因分析     

王安俊葛相英  刘勤娣王建新 彭云峰 《河南气象》2004,(3):17-18

利用1957～1998年安阳区域夏季降水资料，确定安阳区域性夏季大旱的标准，分析了大旱成因：东亚沿海低槽较常年异常深厚和偏东以及西太平洋副高异常偏东、偏南和偏弱；当年6～8月太阳黑子相对平均数处于谷点或从谷点开始上升时期；当年春季出现厄尔尼诺或存在厄尔尼诺现象，绝大部分安阳降水偏少或特少，出现干旱或大旱；6～8月西风急流轴异常偏北，也是造成安阳区域性夏季大旱的原因之一。  相似文献   

Quantifying uncertainty in changes in extreme event frequency in response to doubled CO2 using a large ensemble of GCM simulations   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

David N. Barnett  Simon J. Brown  James M. Murphy  David M. H. Sexton  Mark J. Webb 《Climate Dynamics》2006,26(5):489-511

We discuss equilibrium changes in daily extreme surface air temperature and precipitation events in response to doubled atmospheric CO₂, simulated in an ensemble of 53 versions of HadSM3, consisting of the HadAM3 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a mixed layer ocean. By virtue of its size and design, the ensemble, which samples uncertainty arising from the parameterisation of atmospheric physical processes and the effects of natural variability, provides a first opportunity to quantify the robustness of predictions of changes in extremes obtained from GCM simulations. Changes in extremes are quantified by calculating the frequency of exceedance of a fixed threshold in the 2 × CO₂ simulation relative to the 1 × CO₂ simulation. The ensemble-mean value of this relative frequency provides a best estimate of the expected change while the range of values across the ensemble provides a measure of the associated uncertainty. For example, when the extreme threshold is defined as the 99th percentile of the 1 × CO₂ distribution, the global-mean ensemble-mean relative frequency of extremely warm days is found to be 20 in January, and 28 in July, implying that events occurring on one day per hundred under present day conditions would typically occur on 20–30 days per hundred under 2 × CO₂ conditons. However the ensemble range in the relative frequency is of similar magnitude to the ensemble-mean value, indicating considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the increase. The relative frequencies in response to doubled CO₂ become smaller as the threshold used to define the extreme event is reduced. For one variable (July maximum daily temperature) we investigate this simulated variation with threshold, showing that it can be quite well reproduced by assuming the response to doubling CO₂ to be characterised simply as a uniform shift of a Gaussian distribution. Nevertheless, doubling CO₂ does lead to changes in the shape of the daily distributions for both temperature and precipitation, but the effect of these changes on the relative frequency of extreme events is generally larger for precipitation. For example, around one-fifth of the globe exhibits ensemble-mean decreases in time-averaged precipitation accompanied by increases in the frequency of extremely wet days. The ensemble range of changes in precipitation extremes (relative to the ensemble mean of the changes) is typically larger than for temperature extremes, indicating greater uncertainty in the precipitation changes. In the global average, extremely wet days are predicted to become twice as common under 2 × CO₂ conditions. We also consider changes in extreme seasons, finding that simulated increases in the frequency of extremely warm or wet seasons under 2 × CO₂ are almost everywhere greater than the corresponding increase in daily extremes. The smaller increases in the frequency of daily extremes is explained by the influence of day-to-day weather variability which inflates the variance of daily distributions compared to their seasonal counterparts.  相似文献   

孔压静力触探(CPTU)测试成果影响因素及原始数据修正方法探讨   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

蔡国军  刘松玉  童立元  杜广印 《工程地质学报》2006,14(5):632-636

孔压静力触探(CPTU)是20世纪80年代在国际上兴起的新型原位测试技术,因其诸多优点,目前在欧美诸国已得到广泛应用。由于探头规格、技术标准和操作程序的差异,影响CPTU测试成果的因素很多,而且其影响程度也各不相同。根据前人的研究成果,对CPTU测试成果的影响因素进行了分析总结,以期在CPTU资料整理和应用中引起重视。最后,简要论述了考虑诸多影响因素的原始数据修正方法。  相似文献