人类活动对1961～2016年长江流域降水变化的可能影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

沙祎  徐影  韩振宇  周波涛 《大气科学》2019,43(6):1265-1279

人类活动造成的温室气体浓度增加对气候变化的加剧做出了贡献,降水作为重要的气象要素和水循环组成部分,人类活动对其时空变化特征的影响也是当下研究的重要课题。本文以长江流域为例,利用1961～2016年CN05.1逐日降水数据和20世纪气候检测归因计划（C20C+D&A Project）中CAM5.1-1degree模式的逐日降水结果,分析了人类活动对长江流域年降水量及三个极端降水指数时空变化的影响。结果表明:包含人类活动及自然强迫因素的现实情景（All-Hist）的模拟结果与观测结果较为相近。All-Hist情景下的多试验集合平均结果对长江流域降水的模拟能力较为可靠。通过对比两种情景下模拟的长江流域降水量时空变化特征发现:考虑人类活动影响后,长江流域平均降水相对于仅考虑自然强迫情景下时呈现减少趋势,且减少趋势随时间推移加剧;极端降水受人类活动的影响随时间呈现出的增加趋势有所削弱;对平均降水及极端降水变化趋势的影响存在空间差异性,其中受人类活动影响最严重的是上游中部、东南部及中下游东南部地区,均呈现减少趋势;但在长江上游西南部极端降水受人类活动影响显著增加,需要加强该区域洪涝预防工作。另外,人类活动对平均降水的减少贡献最大的时段为2000～2009年,影响最明显季节为秋冬两季;人类活动对极端降水的影响与降水的极端程度成正相关,降水极端性越强,受人类活动影响的变化程度更大,且空间分布上的差异性也更加显著。  相似文献   

On the linkage between changes in cloud cover and precipitation extremes over Central India     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2019

In this study, linkage between changing characteristics of precipitation extremes and cloud covers over Central India is explored during summer monsoon period using Satellite data (1998–2015). This is a first attempt to relate the changes in cloud cover to the changes in precipitation extremes. Non-rainy cirrus clouds are excluded from this study. Results show that heavy rainfall (≥ 60 mm/day) is associated with cold cloud tops (Tb≤220 K) while moderate rainfall (<60 mm/day and ≥20 mm) occurs mostly with middle clouds (Tb>220 K and ≤245 K). Low level clouds (Tb> 245 K) are responsible for light rainfall (<20 mm/day). Increases in top 20%, 10%, 5% and 1% heavy precipitation relate well with the increases in very deep convective, deep convective and convective cloud cover. Among these relations, increase in top 5% heavy precipitation relates best with increase in very deep convective cloud cover. Decrease in bottom 30% low precipitation relates with decrease in low level cloud cover. The results reported in this study fit into the framework of how weather extremes respond to climate change.  相似文献   

Knowledge integration in sustainability governance through science-based actor networks     

《Global Environmental Change》2021

Understanding how science, technology and innovation can best help to accelerate progress in achieving sustainable development remains a grand challenge for researchers and practitioners. In the context of the global consultation process for preparing a post-2015 Sustainable Development Agenda, various science-based actor networks have emerged, aiming to translate research into political decision-making and to inform transformations towards sustainability. Over the last years, these networks seem to have taken an ever-growing role in structuring the science-policy interface in global sustainability governance. The question arises, however, how they understand and organize ‘scientific knowledge integration’ in sustainability politics.This study offers a structured comparison of twelve global science-based actor networks engaged in the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals. It shows that these networks use two types of strategies to foster scientific knowledge integration in sustainability governance. A new framework emerges, in which each strategy corresponds to two main approaches of scientific knowledge integration: The entrepreneurial strategy generally seeks to advance advice-oriented and solution-oriented knowledge processes, while assessment-oriented and learning-oriented processes in scientific knowledge integration are mainly promoted through a mediating strategy.  相似文献   

Centralization in the global avoided deforestation collaboration network     

Caleb Gallemore  Darla K. Munroe 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(5):1199-1210

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation projects currently cover an area approximately twice the size of Germany and challenge traditional concepts of centralization and decentralization in studies of environmental governance. Emerging from the interactions of a complex network of actors, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation demonstrates that transnational governance networks of organizations can become spatially centralized. Using a historical analysis of the development of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, we argue that the evolution of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation policy has been directed primarily from donor countries, especially in North America and Europe. Adopting a social network analysis approach, we present findings from a new dataset of collaboration on 276 Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation, avoided deforestation, and sustainable forest management projects that began some on-the-ground operations between 1989 and June 2012, finding that organizations in donor countries have from the beginning been the central actors in the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation network. We conclude that Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation exhibits spatial centralization within transnational governance architectures despite institutional fragmentation, raising important normative questions about participation in transnational forest governance.  相似文献   

Microwave Simulations of Precipitation Distribution with Two Radiative Transfer Models     

Liu Jinli  Lin Longfu 《大气科学进展》1994,11(4):470-478

Two microwave radiative transfer models of precipitating cloud are used to simulate the microwave upwelling radiances emerging from precipitating clouds. Comparison of the simulation results shows that significant difference of microwave upwelling radiances exists between these two radiative transfer models. Analysis of these differences in different cloud and precipitation conditions shows that it is complicated but has certain trend for different microwave frequencies. The results may be useful to quantitative rainfall rate retrieval of real precipitating clouds.  相似文献   

辐射日总量的最热坡度解析模式及其全球分布规律   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

于强  傅抱璞 《地理学报》1994,49(6):526-532

本文给出了南北向坡面最热坡度的解析模式。（１）在北半球（下同），冬半年南坡存在最热坡度，且随纬度升高而增大，接近极夜时趋于９０°。（２）夏半年，存在两个临界纬度当时，南坡有最热坡度；当或时，北坡出现最热坡度。给出了和的解析式，证明分别是全球水平面上日辐射量最大值和最小值所在的纬度，它们仅依赖于赤纬。（３）最热坡度所在坡面获得的日辐射量，冬半年低纬大于高纬；夏半年低纬北坡随纬度递增，南坡时等于处水平面上日辐射量，极昼区内，北坡等于极点水平面的日辐射量。  相似文献   

坝上高原近90年以来降水变化趋势   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

哈斯 《中国沙漠》1994,(4)

根据史料和降水量资料，建立了自１９００年以来坝上高原旱涝级别（５级）序列，并对其进行了周期分析和趋势分析。结果表明，坝上高原降水变化具有明显的４２年和９年周期，自６０年代初以来该区进入干旱少雨阶段，并将持续到本世纪末下世纪初。此外，还有一些短周期，如４－５年和２－３年等，因而，在今后１０年内，干旱和少雨仍将持续，土地沙漠化也将继续发展。  相似文献   

闽东南地区降雨侵蚀力的初步研究   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

阮伏水 《热带地理》1995,15(2):138-146

本文利用实测降雨与径流小区资料对闽东南地区不同降雨类型的雨强等特点及其对土壤侵蚀的影响进行了分析；提出了６０分钟瞬时最大雨强为侵蚀性降雨指标，其指标在该地区为Ｉ６０≥９ｍｍ；建立了研究区年侵蚀力Ｒ值的简便算式，并根据谝绘制了研究区Ｒ值分布图。  相似文献   

中国西部积雪对我国汛期降水的影响   总被引：19，自引：6，他引：19  

韦志刚  罗四维 《高原气象》1993,12(4):347-354

本文利用台站及卫星资料建立了中国西部积雪３０年逐月时间序列。该序列是目前资料时间最长、最好的序列，为研究该区积雪月际和年际变化及其影响提供了较可靠的依据。中国西部冬春积雪对我国汛期降水的影响平均为负相关趋势，与６月降水的相关分布较有规律，冬春多（少），其它地区６月降水偏多（少）。我国西部多（少）雪对６月从份５００ｈＰａ高度的变化是：高原北边高纬高度降低（升高）及副热地区升高（降低），有（不）利于高  相似文献   

全球气候变暖的检测及成因分析   总被引：19，自引：4，他引：19       下载免费PDF全文

王绍武 《应用气象学报》1993,4(2):226-236

文章对近年来有关全球气候变暖中一些问题的研究进展作了总结，主要结论如下:全球平均地面气温在过去一百年来上升0.5℃。80年代是近百年来最暖的10年。90年代初继续变暖。1990年是近百年来最暖的一年。1991年仅次於1990年。但是近百年气候变暖的幅度仍未超过自然变率。近千年中，中世纪暖期（900—1300年）的温暖程度就可能与20世纪相当，而小冰期（1550—1850年）气温则可能比20世纪低1.0—1.5℃。已经证实，对几十年到几百年尺度，太阳活动强时太阳总辐射也强，但变化幅度尚待进一步确定。强火山爆  相似文献