Long-term changes (1980–2003) in total ozone time series over Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes     

Małgorzata Białek 《Acta Geophysica》2006,54(1):60-70

Long-term changes in total ozone time series for Arosa, Belsk, Boulder and Sapporo stations are examined. For each station we analyze time series of the following statistical characteristics of the distribution of daily ozone data: seasonal mean, standard deviation, maximum and minimum of total daily ozone values for all seasons. The iterative statistical model is proposed to estimate trends and long-term changes in the statistical distribution of the daily total ozone data. The trends are calculated for the period 1980–2003. We observe lessening of negative trends in the seasonal means as compared to those calculated by WMO for 1980–2000. We discuss a possibility of a change of the distribution shape of ozone daily data using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and comparing trend values in the seasonal mean, standard deviation, maximum and minimum time series for the selected stations and seasons. The distribution shift toward lower values without a change in the distribution shape is suggested with the following exceptions: the spreading of the distribution toward lower values for Belsk during winter and no decisive result for Sapporo and Boulder in summer.  相似文献   

Comparing 20 years of precipitation estimates from different sources over the world ocean     

Karine Béranger  Bernard Barnier  Sergei Gulev  Michel Crépon 《Ocean Dynamics》2006,56(2):104-138

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闽台地区近震震级ML量规函数研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

林仙坎 《中国地震》2006,22(3):287-293

作者精心地挑选了发生在台湾地区的ML=4.0~5.0壳内地震215个,用福建台网记录到的这些地震的最大地动位移资料,利用多元回归分析方法,拟合出最大地动位移的衰减特征为logA=2.07 231.1/Δ(150km≤Δ≤650km)与之相应的量规函数的表达式为R(Δ)=3.45-231.1(1/Δ-0.01)(150km≤Δ≤650km)对于1999年9月~2005年8月发生在台湾地区地壳内的790个地震,分别利用相关部门在1997年制定的量规函数和上式所示量规函数,求出福建台网测定的平均震级及均方差。结果表明,据前者所得的平均均方差为0.20,而后者为0.18。如果在测定震级时,考虑到台基修正值,则后者为0.13;把测定的结果与台湾相关部门的测定结果进行比较,前者平均低了0.50左右,而后者高了0.08左右。  相似文献   

澜沧江大朝山水库蓄水前的地震活动本底     

李永莉  秦嘉政 《地震研究》2006,29(3):221-224

分析了大朝山水库蓄水前，水库区域历史中强、强地震背景与1992年来的地震活动格局，及蓄水前9年中库坝区天然地震活动的时、空、强分布，结果表明：大朝山水库区为地震活动水平较低的区域，库坝附近30km以2、3级地震活动为主，库首方向距大坝40km左右的景谷与库尾方向距大坝50km的昌宁、凤庆一带为5级地震活动区，外围100km左右的耿马、澜沧、普洱等地区为6、7级强震活动区；库坝区的地震活动基本符合G—R关系式，b值为0．69，累积应变曲线呈稳定增长趋势，时间分布上出现活跃与平静交替的分布格局。  相似文献   

EXPERIMENTS OF A REDUCED GRID IN LASG/IAPWORLD OCEAN GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS (OGCMs)     

刘喜迎  刘海龙  张学洪  宇如聪 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2006,12(1):9-15

Due to the decrease in grid size associated with the convergence of meridians toward the poles in spherical coordinates, the time steps in many global climate models with finite-difference method are restricted to be unpleasantly small. To overcome the problem, a reduced grid is introduced to LASG/IAP world ocean general circulation models. The reduced grid is implemented successfully in the coarser resolutions version model L30T63 at first. Then, it is carried out in the improved version model LICOM with finer resolutions. In the experiment with model L30T63, under time step unchanged though, execution time per single model run is shortened significantly owing to the decrease of grid number and filtering execution in high latitudes. Results from additional experiments with L30T63 show that the time step of integration can be quadrupled at most in reduced grid with refinement ratio 3. In the experiment with model LICOM and with the model’s original time step unchanged, the model covered area is extended to the whole globe from its original case with the grid point of North Pole considered as an isolated island and the results of experiment are shown to be acceptable.  相似文献   

“2003.3”辽宁暴雪及其中尺度系统发展和演变          下载免费PDF全文

刘宁微 《大气科学学报》2006,29(1):129-135

利用中尺度数值模式MM5V3.6和6 h一次的全球再分析NCEP资料,对2003年3月1—2日发生在辽宁的暴雪过程进行了数值模拟试验,着重分析和讨论了这一过程中中尺度系统的发生、发展和结构演变特征。结果表明:MM5V3.6能够成功地模拟中尺度暴雪的各个要素,由于低空辐合,高空辐散,导致上升运动加强以及低层正涡度中心的产生和维持,由此产生的垂直方向上水汽凝结是此次暴雪的形成机制。  相似文献   

Buoyancy and The Sensible Heat Flux Budget Within Dense Canopies   总被引：1，自引：8，他引：1  

D. Cava  G. G. Katul  A. Scrimieri  D. Poggi  A. Cescatti  U. Giostra 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2006,118(1):217-240

In contrast to atmospheric surface-layer (ASL) turbulence, a linear relationship between turbulent heat fluxes (F_T) and vertical gradients of mean air temperature within canopies is frustrated by numerous factors, including local variation in heat sources and sinks and large-scale eddy motion whose signature is often linked with the ejection-sweep cycle. Furthermore, how atmospheric stability modifies such a relationship remains poorly understood, especially in stable canopy flows. To date, no explicit model exists for relating F_T to the mean air temperature gradient, buoyancy, and the statistical properties of the ejection-sweep cycle within the canopy volume. Using third-order cumulant expansion methods (CEM) and the heat flux budget equation, a “diagnostic” analytical relationship that links ejections and sweeps and the sensible heat flux for a wide range of atmospheric stability classes is derived. Closure model assumptions that relate scalar dissipation rates with sensible heat flux, and the validity of CEM in linking ejections and sweeps with the triple scalar-velocity correlations, were tested for a mixed hardwood forest in Lavarone, Italy. We showed that when the heat sources (S_T) and F_T have the same sign (i.e. the canopy is heating and sensible heat flux is positive), sweeps dominate the sensible heat flux. Conversely, if S_T and F_T are opposite in sign, standard gradient-diffusion closure model predict that ejections must dominate the sensible heat flux.  相似文献   

DVD技术在气象影视素材库建设中的应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

布亚林  严雪徐俊 《河南气象》2006,(4):77-78

分析了如何将高品质DVD制作技术应用到省级气象影视素材库建设中的方法,以及充分利用DVD的高画质、多音轨、多字幕等相关制作技术为气象影视工作服务的技巧。  相似文献   

甘肃西北部黑河流域水资源对下游生态环境变化的影响阈   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

张光辉聂振龙  刘少玉王金哲 《地质通报》2006,25(1):244-250

从流域尺度水资源承载能力及其有限性、可变性和上下游关联性的角度,探讨了黑河流域下游区生态环境变化的影响阈,阐明了不同水文年中游区的安全引水量和不同目标下下游区的生态环境修复对水资源的需求阈.基于多年平均地表径流量37.8×108m3/a的安全引水量为13.97×108m3/a和枯水年份(95%保证率)的安全引水量为10.14×108m3/a,下游区初步改善生态环境的生态需水量为8.01×108m3/a.提出了中游区经济社会可持续发展的水资源保障阈,即未来20年生产生活安全需水量介于22×108～23×108m3/a之间.在此基础上,阐明了在中游区经济社会稳定持续发展目标约束下确保黑河流域下游区生态环境不断改善的流域水资源优化配置模式及对策.  相似文献   

浅析开采条件下地下热水资源的演变   总被引：16，自引：1，他引：16  

周训 周海燕方斌  樊友丽李娟 王新娟 《地质通报》2006,25(4):482-486

地下热水的分布可以分为埋藏型(或盆地型)和出露型(或温泉型).埋藏型分布于沉积盆地深处,热储层规模大,有较大的储存资源,但补给资源极为有限或缺乏,开采地下热水主要是消耗储存资源,可导致热水系统水位持续下降.出露型多见于山区,地下热水以温泉的方式出露地表,其储存资源和补给资源均有限,在温泉附近开采热水可导致温泉流量减小直至干涸,热水系统水位、水温也会持续下降.在某些特定条件下在温泉附近打成的自流孔可使地下热水资源量有所增加.温泉的自封闭作用可使其流量减少.  相似文献