Systematic errors in the medium range prediction of the Asian summer monsoon circulation     

U. C. Mohanty  K. J. Ramesh 《Journal of Earth System Science》1995,104(1):49-77

The present study describes an analysis of Asian summer monsoon forecasts with an operational general circulation model (GCM) of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), U.K. An attempt is made to examine the influence of improved treatment of physical processes on the reduction of systematic errors. As some of the major changes in the parameterization of physical processes, such as modification to the infrared radiation scheme, deep cumulus convection scheme, introduction of the shallow convection scheme etc., were introduced during 1985–88, a thorough systematic error analysis of the ECMWF monsoon forecasts is carried out for a period prior to the incorporation of such changes i.e. summer monsoon season (June–August) of 1984, and for the corresponding period after relevant changes were implemented (summer monsoon season of 1988). Monsoon forecasts of the ECMWF demonstrate an increasing trend of forecast skill after the implementation of the major changes in parameterizations of radiation, convection and land-surface processes. Further, the upper level flow is found to be more predictable than that of the lower level and wind forecasts display a better skill than temperature. Apart from this, a notable increase in the magnitudes of persistence error statistics indicates that the monsoon circulation in the analysed fields became more intense with the introduction of changes in the operational forecasting system. Although, considerable reduction in systematic errors of the Asian summer monsoon forecasts is observed (up to day-5) with the introduction of major changes in the treatment of physical processes, the nature of errors remain unchanged (by day-10). The forecast errors of temperature and moisture in the middle troposphere are also reduced due to the changes in treatment of longwave radiation. Moreover, the introduction of shallow convection helped it further by enhancing the vertical transports of heat and moisture from the lower troposphere. Though, the hydrological cycle in the operational forecasts appears to have enhanced with the major modifications and improvements to the physical parameterization schemes, certain regional peculiarities have developed in the simulated rainfall distribution over the monsoon region. Hence, this study suggests further attempts to improve the formulations of physical processes for further reduction of systematic forecast errors.  相似文献   

The importance of moisture distribution for the growth and energetics of mid-latitude systems     

V. Pavan  N. Hall  M. Blackburn 《Annales Geophysicae》1999,17(2):242-256

A primitive equation model is used to study the sensitivity of baroclinic wave life cycles to the initial latitude-height distribution of humidity. Diabatic heating is parametrized only as a consequence of condensation in regions of large-scale ascent. Experiments are performed in which the initial relative humidity is a simple function of model level, and in some cases latitude bands are specified which are initially relatively dry. It is found that the presence of moisture can either increase or decrease the peak eddy kinetic energy of the developing wave, depending on the initial moisture distribution. A relative abundance of moisture at mid-latitudes tends to weaken the wave, while a relative abundance at low latitudes tends to strengthen it. This sensitivity exists because competing processes are at work. These processes are described in terms of energy box diagnostics. The most realistic case lies on the cusp of this sensitivity. Further physical parametrizations are then added, including surface fluxes and upright moist convection. These have the effect of increasing wave amplitude, but the sensitivity to initial conditions of relative humidity remains. Finally, control and doubled CO₂ life cycles are performed, with initial conditions taken from the time-mean zonal-mean output of equilibrium GCM experiments. The attenuation of the wave resulting from reduced baroclinicity is more pronounced than any effect due to changes in initial moisture.  相似文献   

生物中碳氢化合物的结晶（英文）     

Mara.  AA 《地学前缘》1999,6(1):0-0

文章专门讨论与特定成岩作用伴生的铬、铂和硫化物矿床形成的内生因素。该类成岩作用对矿石富集有显著影响。矿床的巨大规模起因于与广泛强烈的成岩过程有关的特殊的成矿作用。这些作用导致产在超基性杂岩中的特殊纯橄榄岩（铬矿石）、基性超基性层状侵入体中的低硫层和铁镁橄榄石纯橄榄岩（铂族金属矿床）的形成,以及富铁火成分异岩的透岩浆硫化作用（Ｃｕ Ｎｉ硫化物和Ｃｕ Ｚｎ Ｐｂ硫化物矿石）。还根据巨型矿床的成因模型提出了矿物学岩石学的找矿标志  相似文献   

区域酸沉降模式   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：5  

贾新媛 《大气科学》1993,17(6):732-740

本文提出一个区域的欧拉酸雨模式,包括了大气中污染物质的输送、扩散、非线性化学转化和干湿沉降等物理和化学过程.气相化学反应有18种化学物质,包含了二氧化硫气相氧化的主要化学方程.液相氧化反应包含了H_2O_2,O_3及催化剂对二氧化硫的氧化过程.水平方向有35×35个网格点,垂直方向分15层.选用了四川、贵州地区1988年的8次降水过程对模式作了检验,结果证明模式能较好地模拟这个地区的二氧化硫、硫酸根及降水pH的分布状况.  相似文献   

Field observations on the production of rainbow trout(Oncorhynchus mykiss) under high concentrations of water-borne iron     

W. Steffens  Th. Mattheis  M. Riedel 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》1993,55(3):173-178

Effluents from brown coal mines are frequently rich in iron, the water being red-brown in colour and turbid. For several years a fish farm in the Lusatia (Brandenburg, Germany) has used such mine effluents for rearing rainbow trout. The total iron content of this water varies between 5 and 10 mg/l with pH ranging from 6.7 to 7.4. Water turbidity is high with a transparency of 10 to 40 cm at the most due to the substantial ferric hydroxide concentrations. Until 1989 trout have been reared in net cages within concrete settling basins destined for settling the ferric hydroxide mud. The cages were stocked with fingerlings in autumn, reaching portion size in the spring of the following year. Specific growth rate was 0.98% per day, comparable to that of trout in another farm unpolluted by iron but stocked at higher densities. The results show that fingerling rainbow trout may live in water containing more than 5 mg/l total iron but in the absence of Fe²⁺. These concentrations of water-borne iron seem to have only a limited detrimental effect on fish growth and feed conversion and do not prevent trout culture in principle.  相似文献   

中国暴雨中尺度系统发生与发展的诊断分析和数值模拟(Ⅰ)诊断分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

程麟生  Ying-Hwa Kuo  彭新东  李小莉 《应用气象学报》1993,4(3):256-268

通过对我国三次(“81.7”、“81.8”和“91.7”)典型大暴雨过程的动力学和热力学诊断来探讨暴雨中尺度系统发生与发展的问题。大、中尺度天气分析指出,无论是发生在我国东部的“91.7”暴雨过程,还是出现在西部地区的“81.7”和“81.8”暴雨过程,都与在特定大尺度环流形势下持续发展的中尺度系统直接关联。涡度诊断表明,高、低空正涡度中心的叠加和耦合、并形成一个正涡度柱是这类暴雨中尺度系统持续发展的一种共同特征。根据场分解涡度方程获得的涡源诊断表明,涡源对这类中尺度系统的发生和发展具有重要的动力学贡献。中尺度热量和水汽收支诊断揭示,视热源 Q_1和视水汽汇 Q_2的垂直积分高值区,与低涡或低涡切变线及其暴雨区基本一致;Q_1(Q_2)的面积平均最大加热(增湿)区间出现在对流层中、上(下)部;由于感热和潜热对流涡动通量辐合的加热,在其上部近乎等于凝结释放潜热量的一半。  相似文献   

A study to explain the emission of nitric oxide from a marsh soil   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Armin Remde  Jörg Ludwig  Franz X. Meixner  Ralf Conrad 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1993,17(3):249-275

In the period 18–21 September 1989, soil NO emission was studied at Halvergate Marshes, Norfolk (U.K.) within the framework of the BIATEX-LOVENOX joint field experiment. Using a dynamic chamber technique, 186 measurements at four plots were performed showing a net NO flux of 7.2–14.6×10^–12 kgN m^–2 s^–1. Soil samples from a soil profile (1.0 m) at a representative site and from the uppermost layer (0.1 m) of each of the four plots were sent to the laboratory for (a) detailed physical and chemical soil analysis, (b) determination of NO production rates, NO uptake rate constants, and NO compensation mixing ratios, and (c) characterization of the microbial processes involved. A diffusive model (Galbally and Johansson, 1989) was applied to the laboratory results to infer NO fluxes of the individual soil samples. When we compared these fluxes with those measured in the field, we found agreement within a factor 2–4. Furthermore, laboratory studies showed, that NO was produced and consumed only in the upper soil layer (0–0.1 m depth) and that the NO production and consumption activities observed in the Halvergate marsh soil were most probably due to the anaerobic metabolism of denitrifying bacteria operating in anaerobic microniches within the generally aerobic soil.  相似文献   

On the validity of empirical power laws     

B. C. Kenney 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1993,7(3):179-194

Empirical power laws are frequently used to relate parameters in complex hydrological and hydrometeorological processes. The validity of power laws relating two parameters with a common variable may be compromised by spurious influences of the common variable. Theoretical results are presented that allow both the spurious self-correlation coefficient and the slope of a spurious self-correlation to be determineda priori. Raising a common variable to a higher power in either parameter amplifies the spurious effects.Power law regression equations are not single-valued analytical functions and must not be treated as such. Because of the strong influence of a common variable on the correlation coefficient, the transfer of a common variable from one side of a power-law regression equation to another (by cross-multiplying) may severely distort the results. Examples from lake hydrology are presented.  相似文献   

1991年江淮暴雨期间环流异常的动力延伸预报试验   总被引：10，自引：1，他引：10  

章基嘉  李维京  徐祥德  苗俊峰 《气象学报》1994,52(2):180-186

介绍了利用Ｔ４２Ｌ９模式对１９９１年夏季江淮流域暴雨期间旬和月平均环流异常的动力延伸预报（ＤＥＲＦ）试验和利用ＯＳＵ－ＡＧＣＭ进行青藏高原热力异常敏感性试验的结果，指出Ｔ４２Ｌ９模式对造成暴雨的环流异常有一定的预报能力，并证实高原的热力异常是引起江淮暴雨的一个重要因子。  相似文献   

CHARACTERISTICS OF TURBULENCE SPECTRA IN DIFFERENT WEATHER PROCESSES UNDER UNSTABLE CONDITIONS          下载免费PDF全文

朱文琴  朱翠娟  李兴生 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1994,(3)

In this paper,the data chosen from measurements by supersonic anemometers in Tongxian County of Beijing in1990 are used to study characteristics of turbulence spectra in precipitation weather.Some turbulence parameters such asturbulence intensity,heat and momentum fluxes,friction velocity,M-O length and stability parameter are calculatedand their dependence on turbulence spectra in different stability conditions are analyzed.Some encouraging results areobtained and compared with others' results.  相似文献