Targeting seasonal climate forecasts for integration into household level decisions: the case of smallholder farmers in Lesotho   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Gina Ziervogel 《The Geographical journal》2004,170(1):6-21

Seasonal climate forecasts have been promoted as a means to increase the resilience of marginal groups in Africa. The manifestations of this are still to be seen. This paper argues that successful dissemination and adoption of the forecast requires an in-depth profile of the characteristics and needs of user groups. The case study of a mountainous village in southern Lesotho is used to highlight the decisions which one group of marginal users – smallholder farmers – might make in response to the forecast. A participatory role-play exercise explores what information households presently receive and how new climate forecast information could be integrated into seasonal decision making. Results show that there are a number of low-input options available to these farmers for responding to the forecast. Adoption, however, is going to require repeated exposure to the forecast in conjunction with forecast development that is suited to users' needs. The case study is linked back to the larger scale by suggesting paths that seasonal climate forecast development could take if it is to contribute to improving livelihood sustainability among marginal groups.  相似文献   

中国气候与环境演变评估(I):中国气候与环境变化及未来趋势   总被引：26，自引：0，他引：26       下载免费PDF全文

秦大河  丁一汇  苏纪兰  任贾文  王绍武  伍荣生  杨修群  王苏民  刘时银  董光荣  卢琦  黄镇国  杜碧兰  罗勇 《气候变化研究进展》2005,(1)

近百年来,全球气候正经历着一次以变暖为主要特征的显著变化,全球气候与环境的重大变化对中国的气候与环境演变也产生了重大影响。来自气候、环境、海洋和经济社会科学等领域的百余位专家和学者对中国气候与环境的演变及其对自然生态系统和社会经济部门的影响进行了评估,在此基础上,提出了适应和减缓气候变化的对策。本文主要阐述在全球气候变化背景下中国气候与环境的演变,并对未来气候变化的趋势做出了预测。  相似文献   

The Terrestrial NPP Simulation in China since 6ka BP          下载免费PDF全文

HE Yong  DONG Wenjie  JI Jinjun  DAN Li 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2005,19(4):492-500

1. IntroductionAccording to the reconstruction of paleo-temperature based on δ18 O data of ice core in theGreenland (see Jouzel et al., 1987; Grootes et al.,1993; Blunier and Brook, 2001), the current inter-glacial epoch, the Holocene, began at ca. 11.5 thou-sand years before present (ka BP). Multiple sources(pollen data, macrofossils) reveal that the summer cli-mate in the Northern Hemisphere was warmer in theearly to middle Holocene (MH) (ca. 8-6ka BP) relativeto the present climate. …  相似文献   

山西大同-阳高地震活动背景   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

仇转  刘巍 《山西地震》2005,(2):1-7,10

通过对大同盆地历史地震活动及大同盆地历史地震活动与华北地震区、山西地震带强震活动的关系的研究，得出山西大同-阳高1989年6．1级地震活动是这一地区历史地震的延续，是华北北部中强地震活动的重要组成部分，具有广义前震的重要意义，其后对应发生的河北张北6．2级地震。标志着华北地震区的地震活动期已进入尾声。  相似文献   

Refining the pre-industrial atmospheric Pb isotope evolution curve in Europe using an 8000 year old peat core from NW Spain   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

M.E. Kylander  D.J. Weiss  A. Martínez Cortízas  R. Garcia-Sanchez 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2005,240(2):467-485

Pb pollution has existed for several millennia and remains relevant today. By using peat cores as environmental archives it is possible to reconstruct this long history on a regional scale. This is a significant contribution to the findings from ice core records, the only other archive recording purely atmospheric additions. Without information that allows linking and comparison between sites regionally, within Europe and elsewhere, our ability to make coherent global models of the natural Pb cycle, and anthropogenic forcing of this cycle, is limited. In this respect, the characteristics of the Pb pre-pollution aerosol (PPA) are important to define globally. We characterize for the first time a PPA in Southern Europe with [Pb] = 0.78 ± 0.86 μg g^− 1, net Pb accumulation rates of 0.032 ± 0.030 mg m^− 2 y^− 1 and a ²⁰⁶Pb / ²⁰⁷Pb signature of 1.25470 ± 0.02575. This PPA Pb isotope signature is more radiogenic than that found thus far in Western and Northern Europe. Spain is a historically important mining site. Using three-isotope plots and a pool of potential Pb isotope signatures, a detailed source appointment of both natural and anthropogenic Pb sources was made. We found evidence of Saharan aridification and its termination ∼4400 BP and/or agricultural signals and strong local control (from rock and soil) of the Pb PPA. Human impact is first recorded at 3210 BP but does not exceed 50% of deposited Pb until 3005 BP. Mines in SE Spain dominate early Pb pollution history at this site. During the rise of Roman rule, contributions come from mines in N, NW and SW Spain with no strong indication of other European mining activities. In Medieval and Industrial times local contributions to the peat bog are reduced.  相似文献   

Historical measurements of the Earth's magnetic field compared with remanence directions from lava flows in Italy over the last four centuries     

Roberto Lanza  Antonio Meloni 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》2005,148(1):97-107

Direct measurements of the Earth's magnetic field in Italy since 1640 a.d. have been used to check the remanence directions derived from historically dated volcanic rocks of Etna and Vesuvius. Direct measurements consist of the records of L’Aquila and Pola geomagnetic observatories, the repeat stations of the Italian Magnetic Network and the data base of the Historical Italian Geomagnetic Data Catalogue. All have been relocated to the same reference site (Viterbo — lat. 42.45°N, long. 12.03°E) in order to draw a reference secular variation (SV) curve. The direction of the Earth's field at Viterbo has also been calculated from the historical records (2000-1600) of ref. [Jackson, A., Jonkers, A.R.T., Walker, M.R., 2000. Four centuries of geomagnetic secular variation from historical records. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. London, Ser. A 358, 957-990] database. The remanence directions from Etna show a general agreement with the trend of the SV curve, although their inclination is usually lower than that from the direct measurement. The directions from Vesuvius are more scattered. Large discrepancies occur at both volcanoes and in some cases have been ascribed in the literature to poor geographic information, making it difficult to identify the flows actually emplaced during the eruptions reported in the chronicles. Closer examination shows that the great majority of the best-defined remanence directions (semi-angle of confidence α₉₅ < 2.5°) deviate significantly from the geomagnetic direction measured at the time of the emplacement, the angle between the two directions being larger than the α₉₅ value. The value of 2.5-3.0° can thus be regarded as a conservative evaluation of the error when dealing with dating Etna and Vesuvius lava flows older than 17th century, even when the accuracy attained in remanence measurements is higher. In default of a SV curve for Italy derived from archaeological artefacts, a further error in dating is introduced when reference is made to SV curves of other countries, even if well-established, as these are from regions too far from Italy (>600 km) to confidently relocate magnetic directions.  相似文献   

The role of moisture cycling in the weathering of a quartz chlorite schist in a tropical environment: findings of a laboratory simulation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Tony Wells  Philip Binning  Garry Willgoose 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2005,30(4):413-428

Long‐term weathering of a quartz chlorite schist via wetting and drying was studied under a simulated tropical climate. Cubic rock samples (15 mm × 15 mm × 15 mm) were cut from larger rocks and subjected to time‐compressed climatic conditions simulating the tropical wet season climate at the Ranger Uranium Mine in the Northern Territory, Australia. Fragmentation, moisture content and moisture uptake rate were monitored over 5000 cycles of wetting and drying. To determine the impact of climatic variables, five climatic regimes were simulated, varying water application, temperature and drying. One of the climatic regimes reproduced observed temperature and moisture variability at the Ranger Uranium Mine, but over a compressed time scale. It is shown that wetting and drying is capable of weathering quartz chlorite schist with changes expected over a real time period of decades. While wetting and drying alone does produce changes to rock morphology, the incorporation of temperature variation further enhances weathering rates. Although little fragmentation occurred in experiments, significant changes to internal pore structure were observed, which could potentially enhance other weathering mechanisms. Moisture variability is shown to lead to higher weathering rates than are observed when samples are subjected only to leaching. Finally, experiments were conducted on two rock samples from the same source having only subtle differences in mineralogy. The samples exhibited quite different weathering rates leading to the conclusion that our knowledge of the role of rock type and composition in weathering is insufficient for the accurate determination of weathering rates. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Postglacial topographic evolution of glaciated valleys: a stochastic landscape evolution model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Simon J. Dadson  Michael Church 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2005,30(11):1387-1403

The retreat of valley glaciers has a dramatic effect on the stability of glaciated valleys and exerts a prolonged influence on the subsequent fluvial sediment transport regime. We have studied the evolution of an idealized glaciated valley during the period following retreat of ice using a numerical model. The model incorporates a stochastic process to represent deep‐seated landsliding, non‐linear diffusion to represent shallow landsliding and an approximation of the Bagnold relation to represent fluvial sediment transport. It was calibrated using field data from several recent surveys within British Columbia, Canada. We present ensemble model results and compare them with results from a deterministic linear‐diffusion model to show that explicit representation of large landslides is necessary to reproduce the morphology and channel network structure of a typical postglacial valley. Our model predicts a rapid rate of fluvial sediment transport following deglaciation with a subsequent gradual decline, similar to that inferred for Holocene time. We also describe how changes in the model parameters affect the estimated magnitude and duration of the paraglacial sediment pulse. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Impact of warmer climate on melt and evaporation for the rainfed, snowfed and glacierfed basins in the Himalayan region   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

Pratap Singh  Lars Bengtsson 《Journal of Hydrology》2005,300(1-4):140-154

The impact of warmer climate on melt and evaporation was studied for rainfed, snowfed and glacierfed basins located in the western Himalayan region. Hydrological processes were simulated under current climatic conditions using a conceptual hydrological model, which accounts for the rainfall–runoff, evaporation losses, snow and glacier melt. After simulations of daily observed streamflow (R²=0.90) for 6 years, the model was used to study the impact of warmer climate on melt and evaporation. Based on the future projected climatic scenarios in the study region, three temperature scenarios (T+1, T+2 and T+3 °C) were adopted for quantifying the effect of warmer climate. The comparison of the effect of warmer climate on different types of basins indicated that the increase in evaporation was the maximum for snowfed basins. For a T+2 °C scenario, the annual evaporation for the rainfed basins increased by about 12%, whereas for the snowfed basins it increased by about 24%. The high increase of the evaporation losses would reduce the runoff. It was found that under a warmer climate, melt was reduced from snowfed basins, but increased from glacierfed basins. For a T+2 °C scenario, annual melt was reduced by about 18% for the studied snowfed basin, while it increased by about 33% for the glacierfed basin. Thus, impact of warmer climate on the melt from the snowfed and glacierfed basins was opposite to each other. The study suggests that out of three types of basins, snowfed basins are more sensitive in terms of reduction in water availability due to a compound effect of increase in evaporation and decrease in melt. For a complex type of basin, the decrease in melt from seasonal snow may be counterbalanced by increase in melt from glaciers. However, on long-term basis, when the areal extent of glaciers will decrease due to higher melt rate, the water availability from the complex basins will be reduced.  相似文献   

Origin of the high variability of water mineral content in the bedrock aquifers of Southern Madagascar     

V. Rabemanana  S. Violette  G. de Marsily  H. Robain  B. Deffontaines  P. Andrieux  M. Bensimon  A. Parriaux 《Journal of Hydrology》2005,310(1-4):143-156

This study assesses the causes of the high spatial variability of the mineral content of groundwater in crystalline bedrock of Southern Madagascar. Although many kilometres from the coast and at a mean altitude of 400 m a.s.l, wells drilled in this area produce water with electrical conductivities in the range of 300–30,000 μS cm⁻¹ with a high spatial variability. Chemical and isotopic data are used to identify the processes involved in the groundwater mineralization. It is shown that the chemical composition of the groundwater in this region has its origin in (i) normal silicate and carbonate weathering reactions and (ii) input of marine salts, probably via rainfall recharge, modified by evapo-concentrative processes probably including precipitation and re-dissolution of secondary evaporites in the unsaturated zone. To obtain a better understanding of the spatial salinity distribution, well parameters such as yields, weathered zone thickness, weathered materials and morphological positions (upper slope, mid-slope, lower slope or valley bottom) are scrutinized.

A correlation was found between high salinity and low flow, shallow groundwater environments (flat hill tops, valley bottoms, weakly developed and clayey weathered zones) and between low salinity and high flow environments (granular, well-developed weathered zones and situation on valley slopes).  相似文献