Decadal Climate Prediction: Scientific Frontier and Challenge     

Zhou Tianjun  Wu Bo 《地球科学进展》2017,32(4):331-341

The prediction of climate change in the future 10~30 year is a hot research area of the international community of the climate science, which has been listed as a core content of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and some other important international scientific projects. The forecast object of the decadal climate prediction has been extended from averaged state over the future 10~30 years to temporal evolutions in future 1~10 or 30 years. Recently, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has been preparing to issue climate states in the near future based on decadal climate prediction systems. Focusing on the cut-edging and challenging scientific questions of the decadal climate prediction, we reviewed the theoretic basis of the predictability of the decadal climate and recent progresses of the practical decadal prediction experiments by international modelling centers in the paper. Finally, we summarized the core scientific questions to be solved in the area and discuss ed possible pathways to improve the skills of the decadal climate prediction.  相似文献   

Bearing capacity of spatially random rock masses obeying Hoek–Brown failure criterion     

Tamara Al-Bittar  Abdul-Hamid Soubra 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2017,11(2):215-229

This paper presents a probabilistic analysis to compute the probability density function of the bearing capacity of a strip footing resting on a spatially varying rock mass. The rock is assumed to follow the generalised Hoek–Brown failure criterion. The uniaxial compressive strength of the intact rock (σc) was considered as a random field and the geological strength index was modelled as a random variable. The uncertainty propagation methodology employed in the analysis is the sparse polynomial chaos expansion. A global sensitivity analysis based on Sobol indices was performed. Some numerical results were presented and discussed.  相似文献   

GRACE监测青藏高原及邻区陆地水储量变化结果的可变性     

相龙伟  汪汉胜  贾路路 《大地测量与地球动力学》2017,37(3):311-318

结合4种不同的去相关滤波和2种平滑滤波,利用5组GRACE数据反演了青藏高原及邻区陆地水储量变化趋势,研究了结果的可变性。结果表明,采用S&W（P2M8）变宽度滑动窗口去条带效果较好,其结果中的湖水、冰川信号与卫星测高观测的信号位置具有较好的一致性。高斯滤波的异常幅值与扇形滤波相差10%~30%,平滑处理后异常幅值减少,观测分辨率降低,部分湖和冰川信号甚至消失。CSR/GFZ/JPL重力场模型反演的结果相近,但CSR去条带效果最好;JPL质量模型MAS/MAS_S的结果也相近,但在高原西部有较大差异。重力场模型与质量模型的结果相差很大。在利用GRACE卫星监测本地区陆地水储量变化时,推荐使用S&W（P2M8）去条带滤波器、CSR重力场模型数据。  相似文献   

库姆塔格沙漠周边地区极端降水的时空变化特征   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

胡钰玲  宁贵财  康彩燕  王式功  尚可政  杨旭 《中国沙漠》2017,37(3):536-545

根据中国气象局信息中心提供的库姆塔格沙漠周边地区20个气象站1960-2014年逐日降水量资料,分析了库姆塔格沙漠周边地区1960-2014年极端降水的时空变化特征。结果表明：（1）库姆塔格沙漠周边地区极端降水主要集中在夏季且存在很大的地域性差异。（2）1960-2014年库姆塔格沙漠周边地区极端降水事件、年大雨频次、年大降水事件降水量和年降水量显著增加。（3）库姆塔格沙漠周边地区西部极端降水主要由频数很少的暴雨贡献,而东部极端降水则由暴雨和大雨共同贡献。（4）库姆塔格沙漠周边地区极端降水指数在夏季和年尺度的空间分布相似,且强降水指数在年和夏季尺度的空间分布均呈“鞍型场”型。  相似文献   

Influence of climate variability and human activities on stream flow variation in the past 50 years in Taoer River,Northeast China     

Kai Zhang  Lijuan Li  Peng Bai  Jiuyi Li  Yumei Liu 《地理学报(英文版)》2017,27(4):481-496

Taoer River Basin, which is located in the west of Northeast China, is an agropastoral ecotone. In recent years, the hydrological cycle and water resources have changed significantly with the deterioration of the environment. Many water problems such as river blanking, wetland shrinking and salinization have occurred in this region. All of these phenomena were directly caused by changes in stream flow under climate variability and human activities. In light of the situation, the impact of climate variability and human activities on stream flow should be identified immediately to identify the primary driving factors of basin hydrological processes. To achieve this, statistical tests were applied to identify trends in variation and catastrophe points in mean annual stream flow from 1961 to 2011. A runoff sensitive coefficients method and a SIMHYD model were applied to assess the impacts of stream flow variation. The following conclusions were found: 1) The years 1985 and 2000 were confirmed to be catastrophe points in the stream flow series. Thus, the study period could be divided into three periods, from 1961 to 1985 (Period I), 1986 to 2000 (Period II) and 2001 to 2011 (Period III). 2) Mean annual observed stream flow was 31.54 mm in Period I, then increased to 65.60 mm in Period II and decreased to 2.92 mm in Period III. 3) Using runoff sensitive coefficients, the contribution of climate variability was 41.93% and 43.14% of the increase in stream flow during Periods II and III, suggesting that the contribution of human activities to the increase was 58.07% and 56.86%, respectively. 4) Climate variability accounted for 42.57% and 44.30% of the decrease in stream flow, while human activities accounted for 57.43% and 55.70% of the decrease, according to the SIMHYD model. 5) In comparison of these two methods, the primary driving factors of stream flow variation could be considered to be human activities, which contributed about 15% more than climate variability. It is hoped that these conclusions will benefit future regional planning and sustainable development.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal variability of satellite-derived sea surface temperature in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean     

Andrés L. Rivas 《Continental Shelf Research》2010

  相似文献   

A survey of recent changes in the main components of the ocean tide   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

P.L. Woodworth 《Continental Shelf Research》2010

Changes in the ocean tide during the 20th century have been reported for several parts of the world by different authors. However, it has not always been clear whether the observed changes have been local or regional in scale. This paper reports on a survey of tidal changes in recent decades using a quasi-global data set of tide gauge information. Little evidence has been found in Europe or the Far East (including Australasia and Asia) for the extensive regional changes to the main tidal constituents reported recently for N America. However, evidence for change in smaller regions can be identified wherever the density of tide gauge information allows. Therefore, it seems that tidal changes may be commonplace around the world, although not necessarily with large spatial scales. All of the reported changes have been difficult to explain. However, it is hoped that quasi-global surveys such as the present one may eventually provide further insights.  相似文献   

Simulating temporal variability in catchment response using a monthly rainfall–runoff model     

D.A. Hughes 《水文科学杂志》2015,60(7-8):1286-1298

Abstract

Temporal variability can result from shifts in climate, or from changes in the runoff response due to land- or water-use changes, and represents a potential source of uncertainty in calibrating hydrological models. Parameter values were determined using Monte Carlo parameter sampling methods for a monthly rainfall–runoff model (Pitman model) for different sub-periods on four catchments, with different types and degrees of temporal variability, in Australia and Africa. For some catchments, parameters were not dependent upon the sub-period used and fell within expected ranges given the relatively high degree of model equifinality. In other catchments, dependencies can be identified that are associated with signals contained within the sub-periods. While the Pitman model is relatively robust in the face of temporal variability, it is concluded that better simulations will always be obtained from calibration data that include signals representing the total variability in climate, land-use change and catchment responses.  相似文献   

Impact of bushfire and climate variability on streamflow from forested catchments in southeast Australia     

Yanchun Zhou 《水文科学杂志》2015,60(7-8):1340-1360

Abstract

This paper quantifies the impacts of bushfire and climate variability on streamflow from three southeast Australian catchments where bushfires occurred in February 1983. Three hydrological models (AWRA-L, Xinanjiang and GR4J) were first calibrated against streamflow data from the pre-bushfire period and then used to simulate runoff for the post-bushfire period with the calibrated parameters. The difference in simulated streamflow between pre- and post-bushfire periods provides an estimate of the impact of climate variability on streamflow. The impact of bushfire on streamflow is quantified by removing the climate variability impact from the difference in mean annual observed streamflow between post- and pre-bushfire periods. For the first 15 years after the 1983 bushfires, the results from hydrological models for the three catchments indicate that there is a substantial increase in streamflow; this is attributed to initial decreases in evapotranspiration and soil infiltration rates resulting from the fires, followed by logging activity. After 15 years, streamflow dynamics are more heavily influenced by climate effects, although some impact from fire and logging regeneration may still occur. The results show that hydrological models provide reasonably consistent estimates of bushfire and climate impacts on streamflow for the three catchments. The models can be used to quantify relative contributions of forest disturbance (bushfire, logging and other forest management) and climate variability. The results presented can also help forest managers understand the relationship between bushfire and climate variability impacts on water yield in the context of climate variability.  相似文献   

Temporal abiotic variability structures invertebrate communities in agricultural drainage ditches     

《Limnologica》2015

Abiotic variability is known to structure lotic invertebrate communities, yet its influence on lentic invertebrates is not clear. This study tests the hypothesis that variability of nutrients and macro-ions are structuring invertebrate communities in agricultural drainage ditches. This was determined by investigating invertebrate adaptations to disturbance using insect life-history strategies. Many low-lying agricultural areas contain drainage ditches which potentially provide suitable habitat for aquatic invertebrates. In the province of North Holland (The Netherlands) the extensive network of eutrophic ditches are hydrologically managed, creating seasonal variability of water quality arising from agricultural run-off and the inlet of mineral rich, river derived water. This temporal variability was analysed from monitoring data, collected over a 7 month period (February till August) and covering 84 ditches in three soil regions; sand, clay and peat. Invertebrate diversity was determined as local (α diversity), regional (γ diversity) and species-turnover (β diversity). We ran canonical correspondence analysis and linear mixed models to determine correlations between invertebrate diversity, functional community composition and specific abiotic parameters, including variability (expressed as the Median Absolute Deviation). Invertebrate α diversity was positively correlated to variability in water transparency and negatively correlated to average pH, with the two parameters reflecting a water quality gradient in the environment. Insect life-history strategies expressed adaptations to abiotic variability and harsh (eutrophic) conditions. These adaptations were mainly achieved through good dispersal abilities and developmental trade-offs. The results support measures to reduce influxes of excess nutrients to this network of ditches.  相似文献