洪涝统计方法探讨          下载免费PDF全文

杨琳  刘东华 《气象与环境科学》2007,30(B09):32-34

利用深圳气象台1953--2005年的雨量资料，对洪涝的两种统计方法进行了对比分析，并引出了更为科学和合理的“任意连续10d／20d雨量统计洪涝的方法”。通过检验，该方法能够较准确地反映洪涝灾害的实际情况。  相似文献   

青藏高原加热对东亚地区夏季降水的影响   总被引：11，自引：4，他引：11  

刘新  李伟平  许晃雄  吴国雄 《高原气象》2007,26(6):1287-1292

东亚地区降水主要集中在夏季,是亚洲夏季风系统的重要特征.本文利用NCEP再分析资料和CRU的降水资料,分析了青藏高原非绝热加热对东亚夏季降水的影响.结果表明,东亚地区夏季降水的分布形势与青藏高原非绝热加热变化有很好的相关关系.由于高原非绝热加热可在亚洲东部沿海地区强迫出类似Rossby波列的大气环流低频振荡结构,而此低频波可以影响到西太平洋副热带高压的形态和位置变化,从而使得东亚夏季降水的形势发生变化.而青藏高原非绝热加热的形态从春季到夏季有很好的持续性,春季高原加热与夏季东亚的降水形势分布也有很好的相关.本研究中采用的青藏高原非绝热加热指数可作为东亚夏季降水预测的一个指标,亚洲季风降水不仅受赤道太平洋海温的影响,青藏高原地区的非绝热加热对其也有显著的影响作用.  相似文献   

Implementation of a Surface Runoff Model with Horton and Dunne Mechanisms into the Regional Climate Model RegCM_NCC   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

史学丽  谢正辉  刘一鸣  杨宏伟 《大气科学进展》2007,24(5):750-764

A surface runoff parameterization scheme that dynamically represents both Horton and Dunne runoff generation mechanisms within a model grid cell together with a consideration of the subgrid-scaie soil heterogeneity, is implemented into the National Climate Center regional climate model （RegCM_NCC）. The effects of the modified surface runoff scheme on RegCMANCC performance are tested with an abnormal heavy rainfall process which occurred in summer 1998. Simulated results show that the model with the original surface runoff scheme （noted as CTL） basically captures the spatial pattern of precipitation, circulation and land surface variables, but generally overestimates rainfall compared to observations. The model with the new surface runoff scheme （noted as NRM） reasonably reproduces the distribution pattern of various variables and effectively diminishes the excessive precipitation in the CTL. The processes involved in the improvement of NRM-simulated rainfall may be as follows： with the new surface runoff scheme, simulated surface runoff is larger, soil moisture and evaporation （latent heat flux） are decreased, the available water into the atmosphere is decreased; correspondingly, the atmosphere is drier and rainfall is decreased through various processes. Therefore, the implementation of the new runoff scheme into the RegCMANCC has a significant effect on results at not only the land surface, but also the overlying atmosphere.  相似文献   

Characteristics and Variations of the East Asian Monsoon System and Its Impacts on Climate Disasters in China   总被引：32，自引：0，他引：32  

黄荣辉  陈际龙  黄刚 《大气科学进展》2007,24(6):993-1023

Recent advances in studies of the structural characteristics and temporal-spatial variations of the East Asian monsoon （EAM） system and the impact of this system on severe climate disasters in China are reviewed. Previous studies have improved our understanding of the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures and the annual cycle of the EAM system and the water vapor transports in the EAM region. Many studies have shown that the EAM system is a relatively independent subsystem of the Asian- Australian monsoon system, and that there exists an obvious quasi-biennial oscillation with a meridional tripole pattern distribution in the interannual variations of the EAM system. Further analyses of the basic physical processes, both internal and external, that influence the variability of the EAM system indicate that the EAM system may be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, referred to the EAM climate system in this paper. Further, the paper discusses how the interaction and relationships among various components of this system can be described through the East Asia Pacific （EAP） teleconnection pattern and the teleconnection pattern of meridional upper-tropospheric wind anomalies along the westerly jet over East Asia. Such reasoning suggests that the occurrence of severe floods in the Yangtze and Hualhe River valleys and prolonged droughts in North China are linked, respectively~ to the background interannual and interdecadal variability of the EAM climate system. Besides, outstanding scientific issues related to the EAM system and its impact on climate disasters in China are also discussed.  相似文献   

遥感技术预测油气勘探靶区     

黄光玉  沈占锋  王润生 《测绘与空间地理信息》2007,30(2):1-4

应用遥感技术预测油气勘探靶区具有低成本、高效率的特点。目前有直接和间接两种油气遥感方法用于预测油气勘探靶区。本文简单介绍了这两种方法的原理，重点对遥感影像中的线-环影像构造异常和烃渗漏异常所表现的特征进行了全面的总结，最后对遥感技术在预测油气勘探靶区的应用前景进行了展望。  相似文献   

河南省冬小麦干旱规律分析     

成林  刘荣花  申双和  李树岩 《河南气象》2007,(4)

根据河南省104个气象站1957 2000年降水量资料,以冬小麦全生育期降水负距平(%)为干旱指标,提取不同等级干旱的资料矩阵进行经验正交函数分解,并取主要模态特征向量值和时间系数进行分析,结果表明:河南省冬小麦干旱以轻旱和中旱为主要特征,40余年轻旱、中旱发生频率达59.71%和32.24%;各等级干旱的空间分布均表现为豫北、豫东以及豫西北的部分地区是干旱频发区,而豫西南和豫南地区则是干旱低发区;干旱的时间变化呈波峰波谷交替的振动形式,大规模轻旱2~3 a一遇,中旱3~4 a一遇,重旱约10 a一遇。降水负距平(%)平均值的分布特征可从总体上体现干旱的时空变化规律。  相似文献   

“海棠”台风远距离强降水分析     

范学峰 《河南气象》2007,(4)

对2005年"海棠"台风倒槽造成河南特大暴雨过程的湿位涡分析结果表明:倾斜涡度发展是暴雨产生和加强的重要机制之一,暴雨产生在eθ线陡立密集区内,湿位涡在这次暴雨过程中边界层内925hPa具有MPV1>0、MPV2<0的特征,此次暴雨产生在正的MPV1中心附近,有利的地形条件在一定程度上增加了降水量。  相似文献   

A radar-based verification of precipitation forecast for local convective storms     

Daniela Rezacova  Zbynek Sokol  Petr Pesice 《Atmospheric Research》2007,83(2-4):211-224

Local flash flood storms with a rapid hydrological response are a real challenge for quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). It is relevant to assess space domains, to which the QPF approaches are applicable. In this paper an attempt is made to evaluate the forecasting capability of a high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model by means of area-related QPF verification. The results presented concern two local convective events, which occurred in the Czech Republic (CR) on 13 and 15 July 2002 and caused local flash floods. We used the LM COSMO model (Lokall Model of the COSMO consortium) adapted to the horizontal resolution of 2.8 km over a model domain covering the CR. The 18 h forecast of convective precipitation was verified by using radar rainfall totals adjusted to the measured rain gauge data. The grid point-related root mean square error (RMSE) value was calculated over a square around the grid point under the assumption that rainfall values were randomly distributed within the square. The forecast accuracy was characterized by the mean RMSE over the whole verification domain. We attempt to show a dependence of both the RMSE field and the mean RMSE on the square size. The importance of a suitable merger between the radar and rain gauge datasets is demonstrated by a comparison between the verification results obtained with and without the gauge adjustment. The application of verification procedure demonstrates uncertainties in the precipitation forecasts. The model was integrated with initial conditions shifted by 0.5° distances. The four verifications, corresponding to the shifts in the four directions, show differences in the resulting QPF, which depend on the size of verification area and on the direction of the shift.  相似文献   

遥感技术预测油气勘探靶区   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

黄光玉  王润生  沈占锋  赵欣梅 《地理空间信息》2007,5(1):27-29

应用遥感技术预测油气勘探靶区具有低成本、高效率的特点。目前有直接和间接两种油气遥感方法用于预测油气勘探靶区。简单介绍了这两种方法的原理,重点对遥感影像中的线-环影像构造异常和烃渗漏异常所表现的特征进行了全面总结,最后对遥感技术在预测油气勘探靶区的应用前景进行了展望。  相似文献   

清江库区丹水撇洪渠边坡变形监测与变形分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

刘祖强  刘彦杰 《地理空间信息》2007,5(3):89-92

丹水撇洪渠属4级建筑物,能否安全运行关系到丹水及上游人民的生命和财产安全。撇洪渠运行几年来,两岸边坡已先后出现了多处拉裂缝。在该边坡治理过程中,对边坡进行了变形监测工作。通过监测,及时预报了左岸89m马道TP23处2004年8月22日凌晨1时左右的坡体滑塌,并对稳定性进行了分析。  相似文献